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Scott Ingham

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Everything posted by Scott Ingham

  1. Scott Ingham
    The nature of this spell is slow burner. Most havnt seen snow yet but chances are only going to increase from tuesday onwards. I wouldnt rule out a few cms for the upcoming easterly but as ever its down to a bit of luck. Next Friday/Saturday shows potential for more widespread snow heading south from the arctic and i favour low pressure bumping into cold air as runners across the channel which would also put you in the game. Youve just been unlucky so far with your location
  2. Scott Ingham
    Hahahah lazy dislexic statement! Sorry peeps put the valium back in the cupboard hahaha
  3. Scott Ingham
    Much improved. Nice flattening out of the pattern
  4. Scott Ingham
    Were already on day 5/6 of a cold spell buddy. Snow has fallen in several places. Some look to get lucky due to an upgrade in uppers on the easterly and were trying to find consensus on a low dropping due south from the arctic. Everything has tickled along just as expected with the ssw the final and potentially coldest piece of the jigsaw just coming into view
  5. Scott Ingham
    I feel it has legs the runner/slider/battleground low as slight waning of momentum before the warming starts to take more effect should in theory open a tiny door to atlantic energy just as the westerlies start to grind to a halt. Thinking logically the balance between how flat and how strong the energy as a consequence is something models will continue to struggle and toy with
  6. Scott Ingham
    Im encouraged. Id not seen any run show signs of reversal so in my head this is a bit of a milestone per se. I am as well wed have to be extremely unlucky not to tap into something sùb -10 upper air when we have a reversal that is showing to stay reversed for a minimum of 14 days! The split would be a juicy cherry on top.....
  7. Scott Ingham
    Not for me mate. Historically i would yeah but take a read of @chionomaniac post earlier. Theres nothing stopping a very quick downwell when we are reversing off such a low value in the lower strat to begin with
  8. Scott Ingham
    Look at the secondary runner low @bluearmy at the end. If im on the right train of thought and slowing westerlies leads to this its going to be fun on here following the snow line but ill take it before a beast especially living north!
  9. Scott Ingham
    Recurring theme. Its a topic thats created noise on twitter. Angular momentum has consitently been under modelled. Leading to wave events being under modelled. This is the first genuine looking post ssw run ive seen.
  10. Scott Ingham
    I cant remember the year buddy but i know what you mean! I dont think it will make it that far either but shows the sorts of options on the table
  11. Scott Ingham
    @chionomaniac Look at the slowing down of that low pressure in the atlantic at 264 hours. That is the first sign of the ever slowing and easterly turning zonal winds. Thoughts? It goes from this To this! Westerlies are dead!!
  12. Scott Ingham
    Back on track and lessons learnt on run to run over reactions! All is still extremely promising my friend
  13. Scott Ingham
    So ive spoke a lot about what a mild blip would look like after greenland ridging and low and behold we have diving low pressures going south under a Greenland wedge. For me the ECM run yesterday and this GFS is where i believe well be. To be followed by Iceland/Scandi ridge and deeper cold I bever bought that breakdown like that and i still dont either Runners into cold dense air. So as i say milder blip but snowier blip followed by deeper cold
  14. Scott Ingham
    Its a cracking run so far. Approaching the battleground period now. Remember yesyerdays ecm? Thats my landing zone day 10
  15. Scott Ingham
    Its pre ssw getting continuity is very hard! Dont look past 120 hours buddy use means and clusters to this timeframe and you wont be up and down every run
  16. Scott Ingham
    Against them mean charts. They are VERY rarely wrong im sure Mr Holmes would agree. This GFS sits where we should be on the blended mean. Its got credence
  17. Scott Ingham
    Remember mushys mean charts??? This is what we should expect at this time frame
  18. Scott Ingham
    It cant model snowfall thats why i would onoy pay attention to hi res within 48 hours and thats too far out. Ive had 2 moderate snowfalls which have settled that wouldnt show on that chart. Trash can stuff unless the model is high enough resolution
  19. Scott Ingham
    Every day tuesday - saturday with a 40% chancw monday. Without hi res models its impossible. Were on the right side of marginal tho in that period
  20. Scott Ingham
    Verticle ridge on the 12z! GfS! Better
  21. Scott Ingham
    Ive already seen enough of the 12z to know the models have ditched the rediculous collapsing greenland high trend! Miggt not beca full turnaround but its a move in that direction already
  22. Scott Ingham
    Do you still think well breakdown mid month??
  23. Scott Ingham
    Its the first time ive seen monday upgrade mate. Before its been tuesday and wednesday
  24. Scott Ingham
    Fantastic upgrade on the 850s again!
  25. Scott Ingham
    Yes mate. What the GFS modelled this morning makes zero sense. The ONLY thing backing up such a run is a push from 2-3-4 of the MJO In my opinion out if the 3 things snowking posted its option 1. The models not modelling the ssw and level of amp from the huge eamt event.
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