Scott Ingham

Amen!

I believe it will still think tomorrow and half of monday is rain though with projected DP's

Do you really think im going to post in there after one mornings bad runs hahaha! One person screams winters over and they are like sheep hahaha ill wait till the 12z

Its a lovely surprise for anyone seeing it!

Thats wayyy more organised than forecast! Pretty sure

Euro 4 miles out! Temoeratures way lower than predicted. Part of me thinks 850s look wierdly low this past week becuase of missing covid data

Showers exploding north of York. All very unexpected tbh. Wheres the warnings for the North East???

Correct Still no concerns from me about needing to wait for the next cold spell. Ensemble support or not. Seen it all before during a ssw. 120 hours and no further is always wise in periods of volatitlity. Nothing to be concerned about and the GfsP with its 100+ strat layers unsurprisingly the best model this morning

Still lots of variation across all high res models. I aint making no forecast im going to open up the radar 12 onwards and see where we are!

Juat to also add. If we see an evolution close to the ECM any relaxation of amplification on a middle ground scenario betweem human and computer thinking would open up many battleground/slider scenarios which ironically could deliver more snow than the text book patterns prior

Yeah well i hope human understanding on why computers sometimes throw out incorrect solutions works again. That is my opinion but i hope no other member pulls you on yours or febs because it has credency makes sense and could prove to be correct. But this is the beauty of weather forecasting and what makes it the perfect hobby to run parallel to a forum

You see all of them background signals point to a westerly phase you just described but its like getting booking confirmation for your holiday then realising theres no petrol in the car to get to the airport Closer to the time i envisage models realising there is just not enough oomph or westerly inertia in the atmosphere to push systems on that course i see them grinding to a holt behind wedges much like the GFS P and ECM

Oh i agree. They cant be ignored and they could prove to be correct but to my mind they dont make any actual sense other than they are picking up on the early MJO signals working through 3 and 4 and imprinting these as fact. I just cant see how those heights in the polar region could be antwhere near what they are with no fuel to get the vehicle moving. All will be revealed. You and feb make very valid points backed up by very valid ensemble evidence so i have empathy and understanding on why you would come to that conclusion. But for me no. I just dont see it. I think this period will look very different this time next week. Only time will tell. If it turns out we do hit s mobile period then we do and ive got it wrong as is normally the case anyway forecasting but either way i would then only see the end of january revert to very cold type again

Theres not much to worry about, there will be 10s of different runs all month because we have such a chaotic atmospheric state that needs deciphering. If anything enjoy the ride. Could be worse we could have just bought a ticket to the theme park and had it stolen the night before you go (last year)

Yes it is mate. I genuinely feel volatitlity is through the roof. There is so much going on that i feel its a case of sitting back and keeping a level head and staying true to your beliefs on what should be getting churned out

This is what id expect at this time frame. Polar highs and wedges. In what order/position etc? We dont know but the 18z jeez it couldnt be any further from what a profile look like at this point

Bin it yeah! Just no logic whatsoever to that outcome! There will be another relaxation to AAM but there will be no westerly winds left in tje atmosohere at that time. High pressure should be dominating the pole not what that run has just thrown out

Buddy with the westerly speeds in the upper and lower strat.... this run wants throwing in the bin! Id mortgage my house this wont happen! That confident... but every run has its own idea and all that!

Pre conditioning before full effects of a reverse flow. Perfect!

850s upgrades continues! Looking tasty next week now tbh!

Its not what i want to see! I want us all in on the action! Hopefully a shift south so we all see something my mate!

Good outlook for me in Yorkshire though

Dps of +3 come sunday morning mate. No chance of snow. Come Sunday night these start edging back down between 1 and 0 and then by monday night yeah snow becomes incresingly more likely through to wednesday

The flow backs more easterly drawing in warmer dps from the north sea. Prior to that its more of a north easterly

90% of that is from a trough tomorrow around 2pm that sinks south east. The rest of saturday and sunday looks more like icy rain