Scott Ingham

No i still think well see a full month of below average temperatures as i forecast but the minor detail of how we get there what areas will see snow. Will we see easterlies, a dropping bomb from the north, battleground events, low pressure from the the south hitting cold air. All are possible. The general consesnsus the same. A very protracted spell of cold below average conditions for January and a good chunk of february. Details???? You tell me! Also its too early to say the ssw wont benefit us. It may still do. Theres no negativity from anyone really in regards thar because no one really knows. The likes of Matt Hugo think it will only reimforce current conditions and keep us in the game. I believe the same myself because of the state of the lower strat but its guess work atm it doesnt evem start till the 5th

Agreed. What may show as no snow now on the ecm i believe would be much snowier come inside 72-144 as more disturbances are picked up and upper temp and heights are looked at by the model in more detail. Anything past 72 hours is up for grabs snowfall wise we arent even close to knowing what the pattern is going forward its all a huge mess. But we have a bit eamt event, at the same time as the end of a tropical wane period at the same time as probably some dripping of the atmosphere from the strat event after the 5th coupled with lower strat near record speeds. If anyone is brave enough to chuck out a forecast your braver than i am! Sit back n observe is my advice! Ps I can understand if you live in the south you dont like the run. I wouldnt if i lived in the south but midlands north if you live there it would throw out many chances of snow

GFS P is same all the way through i believe

Yes milder air is brought in behind the low which catches up and turns snow to rain as the snow line rises dramatically. For me nothing doing for any of us wednesday or thursday

No its in metres. @Kasim Awan has the snow line at 400m as weve discussed in private chat. Read the met weather warning they have it at 500metres. Its a snow turning to rain event nothing will be there the day after unless things change

Not based on this mornings runs but a lot can still change. "Snow at low levels will quickly turn to rain across Scotland during early Thursday, becoming confined to ground above 500 metres. It will also steadily turn to rain at lower levels further south through the rest of the day whilst petering out" Starts off as snow and milder air undercuts the precipitation. Starting from Scotland working its way down the country

A lot better all snow above 160m. At 66m high i needed a 0.8 degree drop via evaporative cooling to see snow and got it after 45 minutes. Its extremeley marginal bar the first hour of precipitation or so and backed up by met warning who have the snow line at 500metres

As the precipitaton moves through you need to be higher than 400 metres for snow if not 500m

What do the parameters look like on the UKV trying to get my head around abover 400m snowline as snow turns to rain

Looks a lot less marginal than the met forecast would have you believe with a snow line around 400 metres for the north thursday

Is this a new development due to how far west the original precipitation goes Snow just as the clock strikes 12 would be nice!

That recurve of the snow for the south doing us no favours then. We could do with that heading south east! Lots of uncertainty id take another night like last night but a little disappointing its looking like snow to rain. If the continebt was colder it would be all snow

Yeah makes logical sense. My brain always works like this because my passion is for the longer term. Im roadmapping, unravelling the extended path in my head on a daily and its these uncertainties that make me dig deeper. Simply though you are right. We all want a weak vortex and lower u winds to aid in blocking and ultimately cold weather and snow and your right that is already with us now anyway. I find the tpv winds quite remarkable atm for the time of year without a fully propagated ssw. Such an interesting winter this year!

Are you trying to tell me to be happy with the trpoposphere and worry about the strat later?

Its still got to head south from there!

Whats your latest thoughts i.e strat? Type? And also impacts? Im seeing conflocting views

There is the hope for you om the South. This model has nailed snow in Stoke and our snow in South Yorkshire last night

Yeah still time for change. I hope this does trend back north for you southerners

I think youll struggle to get any precipitation down south at all temperatures arent the issue its the system trending south. Still ive seen major errors 12 hours out with these low pressures so id still keep an eye on the radar

Well looking through all the high res models i think its increasingly looking likely tomorrows snow is a bust!

Hahaha! Yeah it always happens after a bad run! If bi polar hosted weather forums We could well be right. AAM has nothing to stop it relaxing its grip the MJO is currently in COD till the end of the first week in January and weve felt the final effects of the previous mountain torque on the 21st of December. Like me you and catacol said even if we get a relaxation of northern blocking we are forecast another monster eamt event tomorrow with a 10 day lag taking us to the 9th of december. The flattening shows up around the 5th and 6th. My best bet and worst case scenario is scaled back mid atlantic heights between the 5th and the 9th before a resurgence 9th 10th onwards of northern blocking and the first drips of the ssw. This may not even be that bad we atill have support for a greenland ridge and this in itself may well be due to a qtr but i agree buddy nothing to get too worried over. Even 63 and 47 had 3 or 4 day relaxations of high level blocking. The earth balances angular momentum out like that.

The Euro 4 doesnt even have the snow clipping the South Coast its more in the channel or France. Its touch and go but i think thats going south! I hope not now ive had my fix. Id like to see my southern friends get in on the action Just as a side note the hermonie was the only one who had the snow hitting South Yorkshire and i believe it nailed Stokes so maybe a model to follow for tomorrow

Looking through the ensembles i agree there is a growing amount of runs for something approaching the back end of the GFS run. It all did seem a little quick when the mountain torque event onlt really gets going properly tomorrow but i factored in the possibility of a small wave from goings on high up for the more east beased greenland and icelandic highs on show the last two days. It is roughly 50/50 however as you say though so too early to call either way yet from the end of next week Its still snowing btw and turning into an event! Ive passed 5cms now its way more than the dusting i was forecast!

Well tonight was unexpected 5cm of snow and counting when it was supposed to be a +250 metres event. After Stoke were doing well for marginal events!

Yes pal will all melt by 10am though in the higher dew points id imagine. If it doesnt its here for a while!