Scott Ingham

Looking at the radar youve missed the heavier stuff by 10 miles! Thats all it sometimes takes between nothing and 5cm. Ive been far enougy north JUST by the same distance

Surprising its meant to have mixed at 6am...

Very unlucky i dont get why not!

Im 66m must be a similar temperature and its snowing on all surfaces! Its taken me by surprisr tbh! Didnt expect this much without altitude

Snow here at 66m in Rotherham Settling on cars and roofs but not surfaces yet. I just hope marginality holds up before the much heavier precipitation behind this starts!

Never truly makes it to Greenland. We need to hang fire before calling the quicker route to cold. Would make more sense to me on when the next round of amp was to kick. I know myself catacol and met4 thought it was 4 or 5 days early off the back of the eamt but its only one run and the ukmo looked good and the gfs followed the others next one after the diabolical one sunday morning

And at that range to be expected. Timings and shortwaves always take time to be be sorted out. As you say good that the overall pattern amd direction of travel is staying the same!

The GFS has 6 shortwaves between Canada and Greenland! Is it doing its usual thing of overblowing these? Should still be okay just a day or 2 slower

Wow! I hope we can mate hahaha! Were lucky to have you on here

I hope we can rely on your expertise in short range forecasting through this interesting month to come!

Further to that post you cam drive down the freezing level if the snow is heavy enough but we all look to be sat om 1 and 2 degree dps by mid morning so we will get a little melting or melt ponding

The issue with this system is the air as yet up in Yorkshire hasnt had time to dry out. its come 48 hours too early for settling snow off these types of upper tenperatures. If you want your snow to settle you need to hope it reaches you before 6am. As ill show. This is a chart for 5am and current conditions are similar Notice the dps above 0 near the coast explaining the rain in these areas with temperatures around zero. Here is the chart for 6am Notice only the peak district and areas about 200metres support uppers on the right side (need to be 0 or lower) Here is a chart for Thursday/Friday with 2 more days of cold building in situ This supports snow everywhere in our region and why thursday and potentially fridays fronts if we get the precipitation will be of all snow. Lets hope we get the precipitation which isnt nailed yet to materialise!

Euro4 shows much more settling snow than the 12z with some areas hitting 5cm low down however. Lets wait and see!

New weather warning out to cover areas in Lincolnshire. Low down i would imagine 1-2cm pennines 5-10cm All depends on intensity of precipitation. Without it all sleet for me. Thursday into friday looking okay although the latest forecast showed it going much further west over lancashire and mersyside than direct south. Been very busy anyone know which model is showing us the best outcome for thursday?

Hahaha i have indeed and also beem very busy with my normal job today! Unfortunately i dont always get that sort of time to obsess on my favourite hobby! The models are doing what we need them to do to see out this potentially exceptional month!

Hahaha! I think im some way short of the Exeter boys mate! Id normally get way more wrong than right just like most who give a long range forecast a go. I think this was easy to forecast as soon as the expected tooing and throwing of the tropical pattern became visibile at the end of november and we reached a stage to feel confident the atmosphere wasnt going to couple to a la nina type behavour. Bouts of amplification and a significant ssw are consequences of this. What has happened is pure luck. When the mjo has died off a significant mountain torque event has dropped in to prop up the AAM and vice versa and it just so happens when AAM looks to drop from this current mountain torque event the ssw is kicking in along with another mjo passage predicted btw at the end of the first week january Board. Enjoy january and probably a good chunk of february and make the most of it because the chances of being this lucky to overlap several tropical events at just the right time with stratospheric events are very very low. If we ever had an opportunity to relive another 63 for longevity believe me this year is it. These things i have knowledge on arent normally so easy ajd obvious to see. Most with better knowledge and experience than me would do a way better job than i could ever do. Although ill never stop trying to learn!

Yes. This is what caused the monster EAMT! Imagine all them moderate wave breaks putting the vortex on its knees followed by that! Well it gives us this upcoming ssw! To think the full effects of the ssw havnt even filtered into the models yet... Imagine getting to the middle of january off the back of a cold 15-17 days to find a split funneling siberian air over us. Yeah. Beyind thinking isnt it (although we still dont fully know how it will effect the trop yet, just an idea that it should reinforce current conditions)

Correct. -5 - -10 most of the time. Its the year that shows once cold is fully entranched past 10-14 days plus it creates snow chances and cold on systems that would be semi marginal after a 3 day cold spell. Its why atm if we just hold on to cold the snowier spells will increase as everything becomes less n less marginal

A top 10 UK winter! Was called 3 weeks ago and is definitely called now! The question is? How far up the top 10 leader board does it go? My prediction. Number 3 behind 63 and 47. Better than 2010 for the sheer length of time we will remain below average and because it will happen in the best month. January! Chaces just increase with every run. Never have tropical signals and the strat done such a beautifully choreagraphed dance to unfold for me a minimum of 4 weeks of weather porn! Happy Scotty! What a year to get involved on this board!

Thats comfortably the best ec46 of the season! What a january on the way!

Good post. This has all the hall marsk of reverse zonality

When you consider the extremeley sensitive tpv i believe the same. Ive been busy today but i had the same thoughts this afternoon as i didnt expect these charts to kick in till the 6th or 7th of January

Some extreme cold weather heading in to scandi and north west europe on the GFS 0Z at the end of its run The next round of amplification will definitely not be marginal!!!!

Well were now at the pennines so not far to go and its hardly pivoted maybe 30 degrees if that

Hahaha yes i slept at 10ish for 5 hours going back soon n setting an alarm hahaha and thank you i hope so its still piling further east