Scott Ingham

Okay. Like i say not really my area mate i know enough to read the charts and have a spinal level of knowledge but to forecast forward from a particular chart what the trop pattern might look like its above my pay grade. My skill set is long range forecasting having a knowledge of the tropics momentum enso states and the likes. Them comments were based out of common sense due to what i could see possibly happen next whilst factoring in the current state of the tpv. Im likely to be wrong but this is a learning tool for me this year

Just out of interest. What are the charts for 216 and 240 because that also looks likr the start of a split looking at it again Also the zonal winds are that weak for that long and the vortex that stretched even on that chart i can see it making zero difference to the tpv. The vortex is a dead duck no matter where it is

No the strat isnt really my thing i only know the basics. Ill wait to see what chio, blue and catacol make of it

Its in the process right now but until winds reverse its not a ssw. They dont reverse till the 5th. The warming is happening now but it has to reach wind reversal to effect us properly. This is the 5th. The effects wont be felt until the middle to end of january onwards. What we see now is forcing from AAM caused by a large EAMT. Lots to be excited about

Yes thats right but we have an official displacement ssw on the 5th that will send zonal winds negative. All the split will do is extend the length of time the vortex is on its knees giving potentially anither 2 or 3 weeks of wintry weather

No worries if anything it gets you excited at the fact were producing these charts before a ssw! Imagine that day 10 chart then as reverse zonality kicks in the vortex from russia starts heading our way!! Its entirely possible!

No worries mate

The ssw happens on the 5th 10 days after is the 15th Until the zonal flow reverses its not a ssw As said above this is the EAMT effects

A split doesnt happen in 3-4 days time a displacement does. A split isnt modelled until 384 hours after the displacement warming Also no ssw warming is occuring right now irs building up to it. We officially enter into a ssw on the 5th 10 day lag is the 15th These charts have more to do with the eamt than the strat. Strat effects are kid month

A warming is already nailed on. It starts on the 5th as has been mentioned a few times. Its just this type of warming is a displacement warming. There are signs of a split warming to follow they are all the same thing

I did mean yeahh too early to run spell checker hahaha yeah dislexia does my head in

That ecm run towards the back end is insane! No vortex no cold almost everywhere in america it all pushed to the Russian side. What a bizarre winter this has been. It truly does have potential to do newsworthy things! The trop isnt showing signs of going into reversal yet in my opinion if it was wed see the cokd from russia head towards the UK. Were just seeing the massive ssw displacement displace the vortex to russia. Reversal wouldn show till arounf the 15th onwards at the very minimum and thats if its a qtr so things can only upgrade when we sent russias vortex over us

Yes the pre-conditioning of eastern and central europe before the reverse zonality kicks in is a crazy thought. We know what it brought in 2018 and this air at this time of year with these ssts after 2 weeks of our own little cold pool (as its not going to warm up here before) is a recipe for some crazy output

Yes. Backs up what you me and met4cast were saying about right synoptics just a few days too early. This now fits the next round of aam surge from the eamt but this time at thw RIGHT time. So happy to see this at least confirmed on this run. Lets see if other runs follow

This sort of chart is what was shown a few days ago that i thought was too early. Classic case of picking up a signal from the EAMT event and reacting too quickly only to drop it and bring it back at the correct time frame

Yeah they tend to go from absolute model chaos to counting down like clockwork once the models get set on the right path

Yeah i know i agree with you. I was talking about the lead up to the models working out what the end game would be. That period was very chaotic for a week!

It was consistent from the moment it modelling the beast which was 2 weeks after the ssw but the charts leading up to modelling that were all over the place. Youll see if you go on the forum archive it was mayhem!

Well said!

I still think its a very small possibility. It is anytime you get a protracted cold spell but note the "very small" possibility. Lets keep building this cold pool week on week

Hahaha Dont think some of my posts would have done a good job of that!! Still stand by a memorable winter. Just how memorbale for me now

mate. Why do you think i go missing 3 or 4 days at a time. Its like clockwork and its always the same posters who over react to every model run instead of seeing the bigger picture

Remember the volatitlity leading up to 2018s mwmorable spell... i dont think this forum is going to cope well with the next 2-6 weeks!

Your welcome. If you have any others so as to not clog up the board i dont mind you private messaging me. Im sure Kasim would be the same. In Fact i know he would because he has an exceptional understanding of snowfall parameters at short range and ive picked up a lot already from him over private chat

Its not as simple as even what you are saying. Historically when we have had these events weve had a very cold continent (theyve happened in feb) with lower ssts and dps easily the rights side of marginal and the precipitaion has already been made. In an easterly like is being modelled its convective (i.e we are creating showers) tje temp differential is created between the upper air temp and temp of the ocean. Our ocean now is very warm so we need colder 850s to create showers. We also need the heights to be cold to help instability (the darker blues and purples) rather than yellows and greens. This also aids instability but at the same time brings the freezing level closer to the suface. Also we have a diving pressure system from the north. Juat like a system from the west we dont need high 850s This is because we arent relying on producing showers off the north sea. The reason why some saw snow last week is the heights them blues n purples. They were extreme. So it brought the snowline right down to the surface meaning 850s of -3s and -4s were okay for some areas on the right side of dps temoerature at the time at night and elevation