Great analysis and totally plausable but im kind of in Catacols boat here when flushing out of westerlies from a very low base rate anyway in my opinion shouldnt be blowing up the vortex like its shown to do.
Maybe the models are over reacting and going to previous climo on the flushing out and will ease on this strength the nearer we get?
You know my oponion as im sure a village in Mozambique does by now and i have a simialar attitude to it all that you do.
All said and done as with any ssw its fascinating as it should be for any weather enthusiast to watch it unfold and equally as frustrating!