Scott Ingham

See my posts to Catacol to explain why and what we need to look for GFS is king in modelling these features so i still feel optimistic come the 12z

Yes we want it to push as south as possible into the States pushing up a small ridge ahead which in turn pushes that shortwave ive circled on my reply to you east away from Greenland. Shows how tiny things can affect our island If anything this should be a better run than the 0z Have you seen it digging further South? The GFS is better at modelling small scale lows in the US So o dont think people should get too hung up yet

Yeah! Its on its own for sure this morning mate! The 12z are certainly approaching that crossroad period to determine that! What GFS normally does a bit better is model short waves in America and Greenland better. We can see the GFS kicks this southern Greenland short wave east whilst on the ECM it doesnt and stops the High pushing deeper into Greenland Very small margins which make a huge amount of difference. 7/10 times gfs does model this area a little better than the Euros and it shows how small macroscale features in our part of the world can scupper cold. Watch for this on the 06z

Volatility. And on to the 12z. Trends terrible on the euros but a calm subjective mind is needed. Id be slow to pull out the childish i told you so posts or the writing has been on the wall etc just yet with the spread available but again trends arent great!

We will comfortably average -8 monday to wednesday. Thats a 16 degree temp differential and for me it will see us catch some very large showers. Also unlike today well see sub zero dew points. I would be coming if it was me in your shoes

Right so the red mean line in the next 5 days. Watch that flatline around -5 or slightly above with every set. Ive highlighted precipitaion Watch that stay similar indicating moisture. Watch for lows and short waves bumping into our huge cold pool and watch for very snowy runs from circa the 12th. Then look for signs of this mean red 850s line taking a nose dive after the 20th when we see reversal im full swing and easterlies

Look at the ensembles knock off 3 degrees on the mean mid month. It will be a bit warmer but it coincides wth slider/battleground/runner events Very slight warm up Very huge increase in snow Then back in the freezer. The danger is seeing a mean temp rise and thinking south westerlies when its hiding a small rise and extra moisture

I can vouch for you having no cold bias as we had a heated debate not long ago when you had reasons to believe we would be mild at that point

Skewed by some outrageously wrong ensemble members. I know you have this view but as you know i strongly believe we will be hangimg on to cold weather. Im not playing idea tennis Well soon know the weather on the ground

Thats hit the nail on the head its easy to forecast statistically but not easy to look at a set of ensembles showimg support for mild but apply known logic and background noise to proclaim these wrong Second guessing is a hard thing to do in forecasting so i admire you for sticking to your principles

For me and ive been adamant on an extreme level. This outcome never went away its just a computer model overly semsitive to extreme parameters it coudnt decipher. It needed human forecasting to apply logic and learnings to see past dodgy runs and dodgy ensemble sets. The learning will be never take weather models at statostical face value when you believe the science in your head

Yet. Again. Mild incursion Or just an attempt at one that adds moisture to a freezing cold UK Tomorrow to confirm for me. I hope so anyway to stop some of the un nessary worry about a "mild" mid month!

17 day and counting reversal! Jeeeeeeeeez!

Tim honestly buddy i really would not be using them charts for any accuracy. It always pops up about an easterly looking dry then come the day your looking out on to youe garden with 6 inches

They can within 48-72 hours but i was commenting on a chart 9 or 10 days away

Its one of the oldest bias in the weather book. Basically even discussing any snow any further out down two days is a waste of your own time. If you get the right pattern snow will be there come the day and be modelled modestly 24 hours out

Ive had two days of 2-3cms plus of snow. Its just been some areas have been lucky to catch a trough in a flow or an organised streamer. But i understamd if you mean nationwide low ground snow. Next weekend is looking interesting in this regard

With the right wind direction and parameters of course it is

If it cant model snow off -15 uppers then it shouldnt be in operation. Only high res can model the activity next week. I bet you my grandparents those days oj question are far far far from dry. In all due respect it is common knowledge that only models such as arpege euro4etc should be used in this scenario

They look dry because operational models dont have the correct resolution to model troughs and convective elements

If you read mine and @Kasim Awan personal chat last night youd see we discussed exactly the same thing. They have under modelled rises in AAM and consequently from that wave breaking and strat impacts. I noticed wave 2 has been under modelled. Todays wave 2 modelled was a much stronger event than what was shown 3 or 4 days ago. Understanding of the background signals gives you enough confidence to see past runs that dont have logic

Yep. Id favour the same. This run is better than the 0z and GFS is worlds apart from 0z and 06z. Things will firm up close to time

Only high res can model streamers etc bud. The ECM and GFS shouldnt be used for convective showers from the North sea so i wouldnt worry a jot

Also got the same angle on the Greenie Ridge as GFS

I thought youd have spotted the exaxt same time period matey! Very encouraging that run i thought!