Scott Ingham

The more i look at it the more i can see last minute warnings

They are slow yet again with the warnings

Maybe mate hahaha

You just posted same time lol

Scratch that paul hudson just said snow down to low levels tonight and tomorrow several centimetres

I think this is all a bust now im afraid. The dps coming off a warm north sea have put pay to that

2018 we had the same questions. Look back at the thread people were questioning the downwelling response. After 15 days we got our response and the rest was history. I think theres an element of undue worry atm but they dont all come to the surface on the flipside

I agree. The only saving grace is in south yorkshire areas are showing pockets of 0 and -1 so it is still a scenario where even they could be taken by surprise

The problem we all have atm is forecst DPs extremely marginal indeed some aread showing +2 both tomorrow and wednesday. As Met4cast says very disappointing with the syoptics on show

Even wednesday these are marginal in places. This has the potential to be a bust for us but still too early to tell. We are very marginal both days. Altitude will help!

+1 and 2 dps tomorrow is the culprit. These are way higher than forecast 2 days ago!

I cant. Realistically models atm show more chance of a brief warm up. The likes of Feb etc at the minute should be given credit as a warm up is more favourable as it stands but on the flip side my own reasons to suggest this may be models not having a full grasp of things yet still stand so the fence is the right place to be. Charts back up a warm up (onoy brief) logic and back ground factors around my own forecast are still there though. So for me. Being balanced and not biased its the best place to be Its worth noting a middle ground wont warm us up. It will back up the forecast of it staying below average all month and us just be us in a holding pattern till the next push of high lat blocking. Whatever side of the argument your on you cant proclaim to be right as tye clusters and ensembles are starting to retract back to saying the warm was models being in disaray. The morning clusters have increased chance of cold winning out

Yeah evidence is stacking of an over reaction unitially from the models to send the high over NW Europe. Big runs this evening

Certainly. A level head is still needed No one should be proclaiming a bfte right now just as no one should be saying 36 hours of model runs mean its turning mild. I still believe we could see a more middle ground where the high pressure moves further away to the west than is being shown and the previous runs being a blip Theres certainly some small momentum building in the clusters for a reversal of the warm theme now. On the fence i stay! See you all after the ECM!

My text forecast for today hahaha

Not much has changed mate. We still have sn8w forecast tomorrow and wednesday. Today wasnt forecast to be cold eniugh till later

So youll get your turn first and us SouthYorkie boys after hahaha! Its okay i prefer night time snow!

This extended easterly looked like it was trending slightly on the 12z. Sort of a middle ground where the pattern flattens too much then settles on a middkw ground. This is your middle ground. Azores High doesnt quite flatten and theres just enough room over the top of the High for lower pressuers to run up over the high then head South east on the jet to. Low pressure into uk - battleground/slider period i spoke about around the 9th to 11th. Something i will keep an eye on the ensembles for

That 8-14 day chart is a vast improvement away from the previous one Gone is the west based NAO! These still give me confidence that the models are struggling as op runs dont look anytging like these and as john holmes and mushymanrob would say it is very rare they are wrong!

Yeah thats right this is what i remember it took the ECM time to forecast the conditions on the ground but once it picked up on the wave it was more accurate from distance

My automated forecast showed rain cymbals for yesterdays snow until snow fell out of the sky and then they quickly changed! Haha! -9 uppers. Better heights forecas than what was originally forecast and a decent wind to blow these inland i think it will be all snow tuesday. On monday i think we may struggle however thats more of a nowcast

Thanks buddy. Top drawer of people in this regional thread but i couldnt doubt it. Its what were about! Cant wait for this week!

Thanks Liam

Thank you pal! Some snow tuesday will help!

Couldnt agree more. Its best just to sit back and watch it all unfold