Scott Ingham

From Acorns….. Discussion and musings on the 3rd of January for scandi to take the next lead… First little signs perhaps of stage 2 of the tropically forced winter atmosphere…. 29th of January for Tamara day perhaps?

what seems is happening is the shortwave near Iceland has delayed the initial plunge of cold air but the heights after this are showing to hold on longer than thought giving a second plunge of cold air. The models are really struggling with the continued levels of flux caused by Decembers rise in momentum and very small climb down to leave us in a state that’s still susceptible to high level blocking. I could not write off a sustained period of cold weather just yet! The shortwave itself could bring a period of snow however in itself!

Ukmo is the best run this afternoon of that there is not any doubt. I’d be happy with ECM coming in somewhere near this!

What do you think to the gwo looking like it’s hardly been touched? Me personally I’m excited for the next tropical wave and consequent rise in AAM off a good base state!

Agreed mate! As far as snowfall is concerned it’s sensational! It may not have longevity (although background drivers continue to paint a picture that it could or that the rest of winter has longevity) but it has potency!

Hahahaha I hope we both get the snow mate and thank you for the kind words! Your welcome to pm me if you ever have any questions or wanna learn anything you don’t fully understand

Whether it be the GFS or any other model now an awful lot when it comes to this stage in all honesty! Inside 48 hours then maybe! It’s all very exciting however!

Fantastic. It can stay there

I just did! Hahaha!

Scott Ingham day still looking good! Although could be a day or 2 out in regards to largest impacts!

Fantastic post by Tamara highlighting the fact the angular momentum and the gwo phases never really bottomed out which is something we looked for in terms of longevity. If we can stay in a cold pool then the height rises to the east and back west forecast as the next stage to look for look bang on the money. lets see it play out like next week has done from musings 3 weeks ago

Yea this next build of heights suggested by gdsm products is gaining a little traction. Only hints though atm but fun to watch

Indeed this is very snowy this ecm run somewhere with cold air still over us at day 9!

I agree that’s my best cast only because historically I’ve seen so many of these track further south

Hahahah sounds like a plan Stew! For longevity I agree but as far as snow is concerned it’s fantastic! And next week is still on course for a cold and snowy spell

Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run

Really appreciated Ben! Thanks mate I’d understand it if I was the met office or something but I’m an amateur finding my way!!

How do I block on here? I’m trying now

Thanks again for the kind words mate I also enjoy your content btw you’ve brought something good to this forum this year

Mark thank you I just have a lot that goes on in the background in my life and this hobby is supposed to be an escape and an opportunity to learn something and then you get personally attacked ……

I really appreciate that thank you mate! That’s cheered me up a bit I did think there was a little jealousy involved but I don’t wanna stir owt else up. I’ve pm’d who I need to. Again thanks for the kind words

I didn’t get the Scott Ingham day full stop I found it a little embarrassing as I’m just a weather enthusiast tbh Phil! But if a forecast comes off why would you not be enthusiastic about it when you’re learning.

Makes sense from a tropical perspective mate as well. An AAM surge and quick move towards phase 6 of the MJO would make sure of this but tbh it looks and feels 10 days too early for me and so it’s messing up with the current pattern

Yeah how often do we see model chaos once a new signal is picked up and rushed through? It happens a lot!

Yeah it is! It’s something we discussed I think a week ago with input also from Tamara Catacol and Met4cast. I won’t let anyone drive me away mate. My input is all about 2 or 3 weeks down the line and I’m being called arrogant because of a running joke about Scott Ingham day on the 15th I’ve made more bad calls than good just like everyone else that is amateur and I may seem excited about things playing out but what some people don’t understand is when for 3 years you’ve been learning and perfecting a science and just one run follows a script that you had in your head after hours of learning it’s rewarding! Anyway I post for newbies myself and for my own learnings and passion for the weather! I genuinely think some just don’t like to see other people get better at something!