Scott Ingham

I think this weak ridge near Iberia will be more mid lat to higher scrussian blocking come nearer time in line with the tropical signals then retro to Greenland (which is why weak signals) i think models are too fast with this cold spell but I hope I'm wrong) again obviously it's not all doom though as the scrussian block will hopefully be the final nail in the strato coffin. The other option is the tropical wave zips past 6 into 7 and gives us these Greenland heights at this time frame but isn't as good for longer term cold due to a lack of strat wave breaking

If you take charts at face value and cant read and know why they might be wrong due to background signals known bias means trends and clusters then no offense you need to spend a bit more time learning. No one takes individual runs and proclaims thats what's being shown as the end result. Newbies. Please take no notice. Look for the things above as in this distance the chances of things being correct are slim to none

Whos mentioned absolute arctic full on conditions? Is that what seasonal weather is? Let's just see what happens i wrote if you check my posts that im taking a few days off as this place will be depressive with bad runs up until nearer to time to the end of the month with the delayed tropical forcing and come back on cue this week. I believe we'll see a cold spell the end of the month and a better one end of January ive not moved from it. In the meantime stop your tiresome trolling. Your meant to be an adult

Mr Hugo is also seeing this now. This for me is all MJO and AAM driven

New Year or a day or 2 maximum before

A week later I think pal personally. I think its doing what it does. Pick up a pattern move with it too quick drop it them re emerge round new year. I hope I'm wrong but I see more stubborn Russian high blocking for Christmas week first then our Greenie high the week after.

I think its on the money background wise

I think she'll be out mate by a week. I would suggest 15/16 jan now as she was basing it on a Russian ridge which has temporarily relaxed due to a drop in angular momentum which is now suggested to rise again as we move back into phase 6. Phase 7 is a Greenie High.

Yes John. Look east the models are picking up on the tropics. East first. Potentially UK high Then West. Good amp and a greenie high small amp north ant ridge. Strat intensification next move due to ssw then the real deal. All seems so simple but as we know it isn't has all if this had already been pushed back over a week

MJO 6 - short term gain (potential long term gain from strat damage) MJO 7 - Retrogade to Greenie. How strong both ridges will be will be decided by amplitude. The MJO is the ace in the pack here for angular momentum and snow chances because zonal speeds are heading below average. High lat ridges are there for the taking. But not without some amplification in the pattern. Watch these RMM plots closely

I would suggest the scandi heights will prove more stubborn than you think if tropical signals are now re-emerging after a delay. MJO 6 promotes this and a move into 7 retrogrssion of the pattern to Greenland so I think the models are potentially ridding of the Russian high too quickly and picking up a response for a greenie high too quickly. Which still promotes wave activity for a ssw and a short term mid atlantic/Greenland High for a chance of snow after. But I think Russian or uk high then mid atoantic heights closer to new years eve and day than crimbo

Im in full agreement on the MJO delay. I work it to about an 8 or 9 day delay on reaching 6 into 7. Options are still on the table for a rise in angular momentum coinciding with a weaker PV due to wave 2 currently ongoing. In theory I would now be looking at a potential cold spell Christmas week into the new year (how cold open to question) and any potential ssw being pushed back to the middle of January and if lucky a quick trop response leaving a cold back end of January and February or a slower response final half of Feb into March. That leaves 2 potential chances for winter one in around 2 weeks time the other end of jan to beginning of March depending on strat and trop coupling

One run and set mate its a watching game at the minute. We're talking about 2 weeks+ away so just follow the means/clusters/trends

This is a much improved mean Steve in regards to angle and latitude of west European troughing and chances of a North Eastern flow developing

Yeah I know im very interested to see where we might be. I suspect European heights might prove to be more stubborn but we shall see.

We can see on the ECM weeklies from week 2 to 3 signs of lowering pressure into southern Europe and a retrograde signal from Scandinavia into Greenland. All is still well.

Wonderful again. To re-cap in layman's terms. Look at the graph for total angular momentum. When its above that line were more likely to see ridges thrown up into higher latitudes. When its below that line the pattern is more likely to be flatter La Nina in later winter tends to throw us below the angular momentum line. Active MJO phases which can lead to mountain torque events and rossby waves throw us above the line and do two things. Create higher level blocking (in different positions dependant on the phase and if in the right phase 6/7 can throw waves up into the strat to bring it down. We currently have a standing wave moving in to 6. Which is why we're above the angular momentum line and why we anticipate some strat damage but there's no certainty this will sustain further into winter. If these don't sustain then the enso state takes over dropping angular momentum and creating a flatter pattern into deep winter. Late autumn and early winter is different it creates Atlantic ridges

Some posts from what in January sorry Mike youve lost me hahaha

No not at all. Ive stuck with it thats my prediction. Its too far out to say this won't happen. We will soon see us move into MJO phase 6 sometime in the 3rd week of December and im pinning my hopes on us creating some wave disruption from this that will start a chain reaction to bring down the strat the last few days of December into January. Ive seen some growing support for this from the likes of Amy Butler but its a 40% chance for me. Even if not this time the strat is primed later in the season but this is where Tamara view differs down the line on whether we can get a 3rd bite of the cherry

Agreed. Im a massive fan of Tamara. She's excellent in what she does. So is Catacol Chio and Steve though. Its just fantastic to have all these views on this website and all these smart minds

Chances are no but we don't know the answer to that yet. This is her opinion. The weather makes mugs of everyone including the met office. We could get better help from the tropics. The thing to take into account is with the damage already done its not going to take much more to knock it off its perch. We just have to wait and see and enjoy trying to work it out and improve our knowledge along the way

She believed we wouldn't get as much wave breaking further into winter as we have now. Basically saying we need to hope what's going on now breaks the strat

well its Tamaras but the other point to take is there is so much goes off with the weather it can surprise you for the good or better. My own opinion is well have a colder snowier second half to winter

Tbh its more negative than it is positive. It states she doesn't agree with Catacol about us staying in an atmospheric nino state as tropical convection would have to move further east and increase as seasonal wavelengths change deeper into winter but as it currently stands we're in the game. Just adding a lot of caution to assume things carry on as well as they are as we still need the dice to fall right

Spectacular post. Really highlights the complexities and countless layers and variables that go into the weather on the ground. But its why we love this hobby so much