Scott Ingham

Yeah they could be wrong this time too. But the point that was made by the previous poster was no one in Exeter have mentioned a colder spell and I had to point out that point is wrong

Let the low get into the 120 hours or under range that's at 168 hours and if it still looks flat then worry mate. Until then don't be as downbeat because models especially gfs struggle with strong scrussian blocks and split flow energy

The South is included yes. Snow down to low levels in the South and the East. If you read the rest of it they have a separate section for the North and the West "The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights" So the South and the East rain with possibilty of snow down to low levels in the south and east of the country. Its clear as mud

"Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times" I think you need to look again mate. No disrespect. This is textbook early wording for a possible cold spell. They use this terminology time and time again. Then nearer the time. They will change to wintry showers and very cold conditions in the East.

Exeter talk about snow showers down to low levels at times in the East.... that wording is how they always start out before a snowy spell. They will say to high ground only if they don't

People are reading charts at face value. What is shown at 168 hours will not be what its like at 0 hours. Based on background signals, ensembles and clusters and known model bias how will that roll forward. That is forecasting from charts that far out. When I see people posting charts as gospel I just have to face plant my hand hahaha!!

Ecm again goes mild from the end of next weekend but let's be clear. The Atlantic is not barreling through its hitting the buffers splitting and sending WAA up towards western Scandinavia. At 168-192 get this inside 96-120 and more energy will go south and more WAA will be more vertical and well see high pressure build through the UK into Scandi. Another good run from ECM for building blocks and the amplification is only going to sharpen the next 2 days The key to reading charts isn't to take every run at face value. Its being able to look at a run. Work through its known bias and visualize what it will actually look like as we hit higher resolution. Its only within 96 hours the models are capable of working out split energy and sometimes even less ive seen it as low as 54hours. Ignore this run and understand it is not a move towards GFS as some would like to spin

Exactly. Its only because its run 4 times a day people take notice. Scientifically its poor against ukmo and ecm and a lot of time GEM and JMA. The only thing I rate about it is its ability to pick up a trend past the day 10 mark sometimes

I am overly opionated and straight to the point! Let's see where ECM stands. There will be a warm up i feel but not from low pressure barreling through. More likely WAA pushing through the heart of the country in week 2

Very well put. I thought I was being polite calling it pessimistic! Its verging on trolling so rightly should be pulled up as these posters have been on here long enough to know the GFS always finds it impossible to resolve split flow from the jet

The view is respected. But my view that it's pessimistic must also be understood and respected. That's my opinion. I believe its a glass half empty approach to them charts

I don't see an issue to challenge another view though. We're all grown men.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion your right but everyone is entitled to have their opinion challenged as well. I would have no issue the other way around

Its a 4 day warm up as the patter pushes east for a few days. Its perfectly normal in any winter to have these periods and is essential. Its this warm up thats driving more hot air into the northern latitudes to encourage strat disruption down the line. Stop being pessimistic dude...

Yeah I completely agree with you but steady as she goes.. I really believe wave breaking is being under modeled still due to the conflicting Enso state.

Hmm..... bang on cue for me this!!!! Starting to get a little excited

Yeah ive noticed the displacement causing a split up to 30hpa. I still hold out hope. Every day things look a little more like what I thought could happen but we need to see this warming a little higher to be confident. The good news i think is if it doesn't happen this time there has to be a very strong chance in the middle of January with a 3rd bite of the cherry

I think the part that could be incorrect listening to older heads than mine is the ssw happening 2 or 3 weeks later. I was hoping the next round of pacific forcing around the 17th could lead to a split at the end of December beginning of January. It may well still happen well see.

There's my last week in December UK high again. It doesnt happen often but ny winter forecast is like clockwork atm haha

-AAM was always due to relax for mid month hence I anticipated mid level blocking and a UK high for Christmas. Its a case of modeling struggling yet again with pacific forcing only the other way round this time

The ECM warm up at day 10 isn't a bad chart its promoting WAA further west and encouraging that big Russian high over Scandi and Iceland. We'd be back in the freezer 5 or 6 days later and injecting more warmth into the arctic. Get a more acute attack and we have charts similar to the build up of March 2018

Yes I noticed that friendly green blob at 50 degrees. Just at the right time along with current wave 1 activity. Either late December early Jan or mid jan to late jan all roads lead to a potential snowy rome

My hopes are stacked on the next lot of MJO forcing being under modeled. It doesn't look substantive on the RMM plotting but neither did the first in November

I for one have been banging on about this pattern sustaining for the very same reasons. Im very surprised at the nino esque nature of the atmosphere at the minute. Every winter one parameter not foreseen is usually set up to spoil background signals that look positive for Western European cold but this year I think this unforseen level of pacific forcing might actually work in our favour. I do half agree that mid-late January is probably the landing date but part of me feels were still underestimating convection in the tropics. What I do agree with though from yourself and chionomaniac is that there will be even more distress put on the strat come January. So I guess your seeing first time unlucky second time down she comes from up above?

Whats your opinion in regards to the strat? I have an outside opinion we could see a split last week into first week of January