Scott Ingham

Don't do yourself an injustice mate! its a waiting game. I'll be taking a back seat for 3 or 4 days while the MJO works its way back round and we feel the effects of this hitting 5/6 possibly 7 and the wave breaking in the strat starts to filter through. Both have a lag but the end of December is still the next push of amp for me. Question is will it be a UK high or something far enough North. High aplitude 6 going into 7 will decide that along with how much the current wave effects effect the strat. Personally the high will be too close to us come the end of December but I wouldn't rule it out and then the mjo being in 5/6/7 (these are ssw precursor numbers) and renewed tropical disturbances in January I think well feel the true effects 3rd week in January and all of February from a ssw late dec early jan

Yes mate that's right. How far North the ridge from this will get is open to question still but its certainly the lag effects is expected from MJO Phase 5 into 6

Again thanks for the kind words mate. Here's to another intriguing week and month of model watching to come!

Hahahahaha!! Down with the Ingham!! Smite him!! There is always that chance its the weather but ive never felt as clear in my mind on the way things are going. We'd have all taken this at this point in December. Chances are there and I havnt felt this sure since of it since the end of January 2018 for the March spell.

Thanks mate that means a lot! Certainly helps me settle in kind comments like that. I intend to stay in for the long haul. Its increased my passion for weather using this board more often and being around like minded enthusiasts thats for sure

Thanks mate appreciate it. Ive been into meteorology at differing levels for over 20 years but having dyslexia and having to spell check and go over everything a few times puts you off posting!

Also shows nicely how having a full blown ssw doesn't always guarantee cold if the pieces dont fall in the right place

No I know I meant me hahahaha

Your welcome m8 didn't mean to patronize if I have with the times but sometimes easier to explain as I have no idea what I'm doing uploading graphics with my dyslexia! Haha!

Yeah. Perfect angle of the split their! Daft way to describe it but an easy way for newcomers to visualize it dummed down like that

Its important we get the pattern backed further West earlier in the run. The tropics could do us a favour with this if they aren't picking this up

Yeah agreed!

Needs to be more 1 o clock to 7 than 10am to 4pm. Its pushed the pattern too far east and a portion of the vortex closer to the west coast of Greenland

Agreed mate this split is a little too far east and angled 10 o clock to 4 o clock however. We need the spilt more 12 to 6 or 1 to 7

Look at how that low pressure is just filling in situ. Its a shame more energy isn't going South but there's still time for that because as catacol says there's still room for more amplification to be added to the system

Hahahaha completely agree! She is new level! Hence it gives me confidence i might be on the right lines!

Im glad Amy agrees with my ssw forecast end of December start of Jan. Models are continuing to underestimate the tropics. It hadn't the first time. Its a striking feature of this winter. Why im not 100% yet but I have some ideas

Big improvement on amplitude from the previous update of the MJO and those temp anomalies sniffing out the WAA expected through the UK and to the East

Interesting the colder members start to creep in after the 17th right on cue

There's no deep cold forecast before the 17th mate. There never really was. I wouldn't expect any nirvana charts for another 4 days or so

Its just a split stretching from the troposphere to the lowest ends of the stratosphere. It shows if the top of the strat isn't filtering down to lower levels we only need the lower levels to split to cause some blocking and slowing of the jet Obviously if we didn't have this disconnect between the top of the strat and troposphere we wouldn't be able to get into this position and if we didn't have the weather patterns driving all this waa and wave breaking we would have more chance of them connecting. And if we didn't have the mjo and the nino esque atmosphere creating all this forcing we wouldn't have the patterns. Its all finely linked

Im confident very confident it will. Again that mean isn't bad we want to see heights rise through the UK and connect with the Arctic High. MJO events don't even filter into the models until the 17th which is when that mean ends. Its post the 17th we need to be looking. As it is. We need this stand off to keep sending warming into the Strat

We want this stand off as its going to create the second warming in the strat. The MJO is also going to move into phase 5 and signs of phase 6 which will aid this block into moving further north at a time when the tpv is splitting due north of us. From there I would expect Greenland heights last week in December to the first week in January

The ECM day 10 chart is a good chart. You need to look at the Northern Hemisphere. The trough will dig further south and push heights North connecting with the arctic high and pull blocking further west. The warm up is inevitable as it pushes waa up through the great British isles. As chio said to John and I said yesterday the skill is in seeing what the models are not showing yet. Knowing how it will evolve due to both background signals and known bias. No panic needed. Its a slow builder to wintry nirvana

They can't move any further east due to the invisible block chio mentions. It will fill over the UK nearer to time 100%.