Scott Ingham

The models aren't picking up the pacific forcing they keep reverting to a nina base state when the atmosphere is behaving as though we're in a nino base state. As the forcing continues to drip feed into the models in the next 10 days I expect the Ural high and Russian high to continue to be more stubborn than is predicted and a consequence of that being more warming than is forecast into the strat. Every day we get a little closer to a ssw at the end of December. You could be right but I believe there is a 40% chance we hit a ssw before that which with lag will mean a winter bite right in the heart of winter for a change

This is exactly the chart I was expecting back end of December. And the strat is almost what I expected back end of December. I've called for a ssw end of December or beginning of January and the best cold spell of the winter at the end of January and all of February

I think me and you are on the same page with a wintry end of January and all of February. Summed up much better than I could with dyslexia!

I posted it 3 or 4 days ago but my forecast was surprise snowfall first 2 weeks of December a UK hight back end of December. A zonal period first half of January while zonal winds get flushed down from Strato warming back end of a December and the coldest period of winter Late January and all of February

Tbh this isn't far off my expectations of a UK high middle to end of December

Im on exactly the same page. We know from model watching this is coming south inside the next 24 hours to 36

I think the over riding theme. Its going to be COLD and atm for quite some time! Its going to be a shock to the system for the country Thursday onwards. Surpises pop precipitation wise within 36 hours. FORGET the 850s. REMEMBER entrenched cold and UNDERSTAND snow can and will pop up at short notice. This is all one big feedback mechanism to get colder and colder and colder and cold is hard to shift.

30th of April???

As stated cold building in situ. Any snow at night will settle

Not impossible at all. But the position of this dropping low/lows is so important. It needs to be coming down at just the right speed and just the right amount of South! Wouldnt suprise me to see the South East be the jackpot area with the northern most extent Lincolnshire at this rate of change east. Always expected though with these situations

This is why it is so important to keep this scrussian high/Aleutian low combo. Im very optimistic for mid to end of January I have to say

There are also considerable members below the op 4th and 5th... this is the time frame we are looking at and the op is a mild outlier in the outer reaches

Very fascinating. Any snow cover will only help any potential cold pool. If we can stay in a holding period week 2 and be patient a snap could evolve into a spell

Every chance mate...

Its extremely marginal. The dew points and very low heights are catching my eye in particular... its 60/40 on cold rain but it was 80/20 on cold rain yesterday

This could turn into an event that unfolds under our eyes. I cant wait for it to get into higher resolution timeframe

WHAT I TAKE FROM THAT IS MANY MANY MORE ENSEMBLES ARE AT THE -5 LINE AND LOWER BETWEEN THE 3RD AND 5TH. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BECAUSE SNOW CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY THERE FOR WEEKS END The run sits above the mean in fact at times in this period. The models are starting to pick up on a building cold pool.

I agree with Deverger. There is almost always a move east as has been happening. We will be within T-72 tomorrow and this is when you would normally see the biggest shift east between 48 and 72 hours. I do think someone in the East at low level will see a cm or 2 or a dusting. Furthest West cut off point probably Sheffield

For me they are important in a convective snowy set up like an unstable easterly but if you have systems and troughs dropping into air that's got a good freezing level and dew points (which you can create from your own cold pool) you can get away with it with uppers -3 upwards

We need that ridge for 2 or 3 weeks or we can kiss goodbye to a ssw in my eyes. Id rather have a blockbuster middle of January and a cold frosty December with a bit of snow than a 1 week blow out and mild n wet January and February

Ita freezing cold at this stage. Days of cold stagnant air. It would only take the odd disturbance to ensure it snows. 850s aren't the be all especially at this time of year with short days.

These diving lows historically tend to shift east slowly closer to the time. Its usually as we hit the 72-96 range and under. I still think there is scope for further eastward adjustments between 200 and 400 miles by T-0

Exactly mate. No point in getting hung up on 850s is there. Let's get the pattern nailed first. Im sure there will be a surprise or two closer to time

This is a slow building cold spell. I'd expect uppers and dew points to slowly drop day on day. I couldn't rule out snow surprises. Wait till the low drops south and use the higher resolution models because looking at 850s this far out is pointless

When it has made its presence felt its been ever so slight (hence the mid Atlantic ridge not making it to full blown GH) but the flip side is its enabled the tropics to work its magic on the Russian High. Best of both worlds potentially if we want to see 3 good months of winter