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Scott Ingham

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Everything posted by Scott Ingham

  1. Scott Ingham
    Ill have a look for it ik sure I'll be able to find it. Should be an interesting read. Thanks anyway Mike
  2. Scott Ingham
    Exactly it only reaches the lower ends of the strat vortex so you would be unlikely to see a change to Flux, temperatures etc. Its enough tho to block the Atlantic and aid Northern blocking
  3. Scott Ingham
    This is just the trop vortex mate not strat
  4. Scott Ingham
    I didn't know that! How many layers through to t-384?
  5. Scott Ingham
    That cold pool to our East is the coldest and most expansive i have ever seen on a weather model in December!! No issues with marginality there
  6. Scott Ingham
    Yes GFS is still wrong in that time-frame. I still think the lows will end up miles further south sliding under the UK. The latter stages are juat background signals drip feeding into low res showing whats on the table for us
  7. Scott Ingham
    Aii! It has to be if our friends in Greece have stolen our snow!!
  8. Scott Ingham
    Its not useless because it fits background signals. This is the point I've been trying to make. If a run fits background signals it has more credence. But I do believe it's a week too early for this set up.
  9. Scott Ingham
    Exactly on the same page as me. The ensembles trending milder isn't the Atlantic winning its WAA creating the block for the end of December. The 18z tho for me is nearly a week too early. Its reacting to the signals too quick and this does happen a lot so I expect to see this get pushed back and people think chances are over winter is over etc
  10. Scott Ingham
    A few days too early for me too. I'd have had tropical impacts around the 17th so with lag id say 5 or so days too early but just commented that I think this is possibly the correct route
  11. Scott Ingham
    This run is about 200 miles further west than I think will happen come Christmas week. Push north of heights over the UK to give a final blow to the vortex
  12. Scott Ingham
    Yeah youve just summed up my thinking very simply. Bowling ball low gone at 150 hours. Look at the 0z at 150 hours well see even more energy heading south. Eventually a tipping point will be hit where the Russian ridge ridges over the top of the energy north of us
  13. Scott Ingham
    Its called debate Jason not criticism. Its what a messageboard is for. Someone posts an opinion and someone either agrees or disageees with a reason. Ive done the latter because its good for learning. If I agreed on a mild outcome I would say that as well
  14. Scott Ingham
    I'm beginning to think we may not even see an Atlantic spell at all mate. Not in the strictest sense anyway
  15. Scott Ingham
    Ive never given certainty to any chart at that range. Only give something a higher chance of being correct based on whether it matches background signals and fits into any model bias at that time. This for me has nothing to so with cold or mild bias. I have spent two days saying I expect a mid lat high over the UK Christmas week. Why turn this into a two camps thing? Criticism is there because its warranted and I strongly believe the Atlantic won't win out for all the reasons I've spent all day saying
  16. Scott Ingham
    Im suggesting that within this west to east flow we have things in meteorology called blocks that stop this flow and send this south keeping us on the cold side of a jet. Im suggesting that when we have formidable blocking in place models always underestimate the strength of said block and blow it away until we get within 4 days time. Im suggesting the GFS has the greatest bias with this and id suggest you compare the 150hr chart on the 12z to the 144hour chart on the 18z you'll see this bias in all its glory
  17. Scott Ingham
    Im not even going to get into this as you clearly have no idea what your on about entertaining though..
  18. Scott Ingham
    GFS is better with Greenland Highs. Ecm better with Scandi highs and split flows
  19. Scott Ingham
    Hahahaha yes pal that as well!! I would say though the ensembles long range are sometimes good at picking up a trend or pattern change (sometimes )
  20. Scott Ingham
    Based on what scientific evidence/model/anything??
  21. Scott Ingham
    Its a well known bias mate yeah especially so with the GFS. Its why it's frustrating to read people believing a 168 hour chart. Steve Murr has spoken about this for years and we still see people getting downbeat at the Atlantic breaking through a huge Russian block that is almost certainly being under estimated
  22. Scott Ingham
    Yes mate this second bout of forcing will in my opinion happen further west over the UK and could (although the majority of stratties) believe it will be at a 3rd bite of the cherry could split the strat from the bottom up! Also just to back up musings from myself Steve Murr Catacol we can see from the icon shorter term the extra amp being fed in the closer we get and that low slider ever further west Just to add beautiful pictures mate!
  23. Scott Ingham
    Azores high ridging and building through the UK is definitely a good shout mate for me
  24. Scott Ingham
    Outstanding example of not taking individual runs at face value. Factoring in background signals (MJO progression) and model bias (this not filtering through yet) Top quality analysis and for anyone new stick to people like catacol for learning the art of reading a chart.
  25. Scott Ingham
    I agree on the ecm mean it is trending the wrong way but even the ECM struggles with this set up. Just not as woefully as the GFS. Let's see where we are after the ECM 12z
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