Hotspur62

Whilst the latest ECM outlook is a downgrade for winter in terms of cold it’s not the be all and end all.From memory wasn’t the ECM showing a decent looking summer in April in terms of JJA but that didn’t pan out exactly?This winter has so many conflicting signals it is impossible to give an accurate forecast as these models are not full proof and can’t factor in SSWs I believe .That said in an ever warming world best not to have too high expectations if you want cold and snow and if we get a week or two of snow this winter most people on here would be reasonably happy including me!

Had thunder and lightning here from about 12.30 to about 1.30 but the really big stuff seemed a few miles west of us.nice drop of rain which the garden appreciated as well

A growing trend and let’s hope all models continue to show these up until mid November for DJF

Reached 31 here in Locksbottom and still 24 @8.45pm.Really felt humid working outside today and tomorrow looks pretty similar.Weekend looks hot and sunny in this neck of the woods with potential for 32 or 33 on Saturday.It’s only by Tuesday next week when temperatures go back to more seasonal levels.Enjoy the heat those that like it but everyone keep hydrated

Totally agree with that and tbh I feel wait until early November and even then you could argue you could take with a pinch of salt.You only have to look at this summers forecasts in May and whilst June was forecast ok July and august were not great from the Models!!

Let’s hope that is way off the mark as from a cold perspective for the U.K. it looks dreadful.Interesting how it keeps low pressure in NE Pacific though

Gloomy old day today with showery rain here from about 11ish to 2ish but barely enough to dampen ground.Actually felt quite cool today and we only reached 17 here today which is coolest day here(excluding last Saturday when we were only 16 in the rain) for quite some time.The rest of the week is fair to say looks mixed and relatively cool for time of year with below average temperatures.Don’t know about other areas in SE but ground is pretty dry and hard round here and river levels are definitely lower than normal.We need significant rain really like they just had in NW England where some places had 55-65mm rain over 48 hours.I know SE Water have a hosepipe ban on and wouldn’t be surprised if Thameswater impose one soon if we don’t get significant rain soon!

Met forecast was pretty awful today.Played golf at Rochester and cobham and they had clear skies from 1pm today all through the afternoon and evening.Reality was a few glimpses of sun around 4-30 and rest of day cloudy and about 15 degrees.They were accurate on the bloody strength of the NE wind though!!

March April and first half of May were cool and pretty wet in this part of NW Kent.Been dry here since 16th May but unlike most of western Britain it has been cool with a nagging cool NE wind which on most days has prevented the sun breaking through till 2/3pm most days so all in all a pretty crappy spring here!!

Well another diabolical morning here in nw Kent.currently 6 degrees and absolutely hammering it down.If only we could have these weather Synoptics in mid jan or feb we would have had about 3-4 inches of snow due to intensity of this rainfall!!Never the way is it for us snow lovers.Has been a really grim April here.Interesting seeing that NW Scotland and Devon Dorset have had very respectable temperatures but apart from good Friday-Easter Sunday ,Monday 17th and yesterday when we had temperatures in 13-15 degree range the rest of the month has been maxes of 7-12 here and loads of rain(must be 150% average here of April already).Rant over and just would like a bit of warmth now.

After such a lovely day yesterday back to the gloom that has been consistent for March and April!At least there wasn’t heavy rain as there was most days last week although we had a little light rain about 2pm.Very fresh in the wind and although it was 10 degrees it felt much colder than that.Not even been close to working in shorts so far this spring and looking at next 7 day’s temperatures look to continue to be suppressed

Miserable morning here in Locksbottom with rain starting at 8am and just stopped at 10.25.Had a bit of back edge sleet and as seen with elevation wet snow in places like knockholt although no settling.Looks like an improving day now although a little chilly.Rest of the week looks milder with daytime temps 10-12 so hopefully the heating won’t be coming on as often as last week.

Yes a miserable day here in Locksbottom with rain on and off all day which looks likely to continue all night and tomorrow morning.Temperature was 2.1 at 7am but was 7.9 by 12.45 and peaked at 9.2 mid afternoon so feels tropical compared to last few days. Have dived into the midlands north west and Yorkshire threads and think it will be an interesting night and morning for a lot of them and if you like pictures of snow like me just go into those threads and hope that it maybe our turn one day soon.Good luck to our northern friends and hope they get their snow fixI still have a funny feeling that we may get one more shot of snow before the end of the month and models do show some interest in that so certainly worth keeping an eye on things

Temperature now 1.1 here in Locksbottom and raining now.If only this event had occurred one month earlier then I think we all would have been one degree colder and we all would have had snow with no marganility but it is what it is.We had about 3cms here at its peak at 7am but not even 1cm left now.Will all be gone in next few hours unless something remarkable happens I feel the dreaded m4 corridor has struck again and anywhere south of there is going to get a lot of rain in the next 3-4 days.Those in bucks Oxfordshire herts and EA good luck and hope you get your snow fix tonight and tomorrow Looking ahead still chances of snow for all the SE region but we really need to get lucky for settling snow as march progresses.

Yes it looks that way now wrong side of marginal!Amazing less than 12 hours ago models were showing this part of Kent as heavy snow from 5-10pm,now they are showing rain and sleet! currently exactly zero and temperature rising and snow now stopped

Woke up at 3am and looked out and it was raining with a bit of sleet and went back to sleep.Just woken up and it’s a winter wonderland out there everything covered,temperature -0.2 and snowing heavily.Looks like we have maybe another 2 hours and then that’s it.That’s the good news.The bad news is that the forecast for later this afternoon is now rain and sleet Last night when I went to bed at 11 it was for heavy snow from 5-10pm this evening.It’s so marginal!!Better go out this morning for a walk and enjoy it before it all melts.Looks like the midlands and NW England and Mid north wales will get pelted Thursday now whilst we in SE get good old fashioned rain!!You win some lose some!!

And more is on the way!In places another 3-6 feet is due over the next 72 hours!.Crikey if we get 3 inches of snow it causes chaos

If there is one person on this thread who deserves snowmageddon it is you Mattwolves3.I love your posts that have me in stitches but at the same time are keeping it realSure I am speaking for everyone on this great thread when I say that.Apologies mods not strictly on subject but felt it needed saying so thank you once again. Back on to the weather it’s the most exciting weather period this winter and it’s spring!The strength of the high in Greenland has I feel been a small factor in causing this weather modelling chaos and I hope all parts see snow in the next 72hours.Also chances are another cold push next week as well but think we need to get to Saturday first and then things may become clearer on that front. enjoy the snow those that get it.

If that’s correct what a difference 24 hours makes.!!

That’s a pretty big shift compared to the ICON!On that it looks those North of M4 could be favoured but such fine margins too difficult to call

Temperature-0.1 here in Locksbottom @9pm and lovely full moon so hope temperatures continue to fall giving us more of a chance that when precipitation starts it will be snow and will stay as snow. Just been on Mod thread and some people need to have a look at themselves.I like to feel I am impartial on things and statistically those of us South of Midlands don’t often see snow so when there is the POSSIBILITY we may get some of course there will be excitement and anticipation.Unfortunately one or two people who live in the North like to dampen the mood and if models show that possibility of snow lessen almost gloat at that .I do stress 99% of people on there are great and the likes of Mattwolves has me in stitches at times as well as also keeping it real.At the end of the day it is only the weather but at the same time it is the excitement of snow that brings the kid out of us and we all need a bit of fun in these difficult times.

Interesting that 850s don’t get above 0C in Glasgow so fair chance the cold will persist for next 7-10 days there.Further south you go it’s more likely to have milder spell’s interspersed with colder spells.Certainly the most interesting spell of weather since early/mid December 2022..Interesting NAO staying negative for next 7-10 days which maybe a cause of all the inconsistency of models over last 2/3 days.On top of that as others have said 2nd SSW adding to the model chaos?

Certainly looks like the dying embers of the 3 year La Niña.If I have read it right it looks like a moderate El Niño going into winter 2023/24 and with an E qbw wonder if that favours chances of a mild average or colder than normal winter for the U.K.?

Yes I very rarely post in there as you can get pounced upon!!Agree just another 75mile southward shift should just about do it for us in the SE Thread

Just dived into MAD thread again(couldn’t help myself) and although in weather terms it’s a long way off every system seems to be shifting southwards for Thursday and Friday.I reckon North herts,Oxfordshire ,Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire could be the snow winners in this weeks Snow drama!tbc….