Hotspur62

Yes sadly all very average what ever way you look at it and quite wet at times.At least we will all save a few bob on energy bills so every cloud and all that Long term drivers also seem to start looking ominous from a non cold pov but as we know things can change although the default pattern looks a good bet atm. Happy Christmas to everyone on here and I will be taking a break from model watching till after Xmas now as time to spend with the family now.

Looking at the globe it looks like the whole globe is above to well above normal in period 1/1-5/1/23 According to GEFS!!Sign of the times but does seem a bit extreme.As JB on weatherbell says many times in the past it seems to have trouble picking up any cold in its forecasts even at relatively short times in the future.?

Amazing to think this time last week the models were showing only a short milder blip starting from Sunday and it was likely to turn colder again from today and in the build up to Xmas day.Well they got the first bit right with it turning milder from Sunday but sadly the second bit didn’t quite work out from a cold point of view.Been 10-11 degrees here last 3 days and looks to be in the 10-12 degree range for next 4 days possibly turning a little cooler by Monday but by no means cold.It’s amazing how we continually snatch defeat from the jaws of victory weather wise in search of cold weather in the U.K. and it now seems we will most likely have to wait until end of first week of January before we may see some wintery stuff.On a side note it really has been a cold start to winter in Scandinavia this year,been cold up there since last week of November and a winter like ones they had in the 1970s and 80s.

Just read through 15 pages and it does seem we have stepped backwards from a cold perspective re Xmas day and Boxing Day.Still lots of uncertainty but 2 things stand out for me.The Euro heights are just too strong and I think that over the last 20 years they seem to have crept a couple hundred miles northwards compared to where they used to be(probably a result of CC).The second factor is how the storm in US performs and if it manages to send enough WAA into Greenland.36 hours ago that looked promising from a GFS perspective but got no support from any other model.Now run by run ,even the GFS is dropping that idea.Conclusion for me Scotland,NI AND Some parts of Northern England still in with a chance of a white Xmas.The rest of us really would need a Xmas miracle for a white one.What happens after that is anyones guess and well above what knowledge I have but if I had a punt I would just say pretty average fare for late December as JH and Mushy use the NOAA 8-14 day charts suggested yesterday I believe.

You are right on that.As I mentioned earlier it looks just like Scotland ,parts of NI and parts of the very north of England that COULD get a white Xmas.I have been on the MOD thread just now and got out again unscathed and the 06z would be a peach for the SE FROM 27th/28th December for snow chances.Problem is I don’t think it will have much support from UKMO or ECM.We can but dream though for a Christmas miracle

As much as I would like GFS to be right possibly an outlier?

Horrid morning windy with driving rain and 10.5 here in Locksbottom! Much preferred the cold and snow of last week which is now a memory as it all disappeared late last night and early hours of this morning.Looks like a relatively mild working week for us in SE thread with temps of 8-11 and no overnight frost to contend with.May get a little colder by next weekend to average temperatures but the models are really struggling with things atm so possible we may get colder if things fall our way.If you are going upto northern England or Scotland for Xmas then you have a bit of a chance of a white Xmas it would seem(the further north you go the better).

Really is a fascinating set up with GFS consistent on pushing cold down from 23rd December,how far the cold air pushes south is another matter but there are small corrections southwards so it is possible Midlands northwards could see a white Xmas.Of course the other side of the coin ECM and UKMO just not having it.The clock is ticking but I would say this time tomorrow night the GFS will back down or the other Big 2 May swing to the GFS.Know what way I would like it to go but it’s a heart ruling head one I think.

The thing about this cold spell as it draws to a close was the longevity of how long we stayed sub zero here.We lasted from about 5pm last Saturday till this morning at 8.50 when we went to 0.1(159 consecutive hours which blew BFTE 2018 of 104 hours out the water).On top of that the 5/6cms snow we had last Sunday is still pretty much intact and with the last 3 nights severe frost making for some stunning photos I will be quite sad when it all gets washed away tomorrow. It looks like it potentially could be a very wet and mild week and the only comfort from that will be saving a few bob on the energy bills which have gone through the roof this week!

Already upto -3.1 as at 10.30 so think we will achieve positive temperatures for first time since last Saturday afternoon. one more picture which shows how cold it has been.All good things come to an end and it looks horrible in the SE Sunday and Monday by which time the landscape will have reverted back to green

Another chilly one at -5.8 but not as cold as previous night.Maybe got another 20 minutes of dropping before it levels out so may get a -6 again.could be another Ice day here which if it happens would be 6 on the bounce!!

Just a few pictures of my walk this arvo.The snow still looks as pure as it did on Sunday night when it fell!

Yes not enough push south although it really wouldn’t take a lot for whole of U.K. To go cold.Another 50-100 miles further east of the Low dropping and slightly bigger wedge of heights in mid Atlantic would do the job.Certainly NW Britain could look to some wintry weather if things pan out like latest ICON.

Peaked at -1.2 here about 1.50pm and as at 2.45pm down to -1.6 already.Looks like fog and mist will come in later so that will scupper chances of probably beating this mornings low.

Still -1.4 here and normally by 2.15 it starts dropping here so only about 45 minutes to have another sub zero day!Went for a walk with the wife and dog and it was just beautiful-clear blue skies snow still on all the trees and very little melt.It would be lovely if we could have weather like this in winter on a more regular basis instead of maybe one week out of 12 if we are lucky in recent years.Bearing in mind this cold spell started last week this could be my lot if recent winters are anything to go by!

Just the 350-400 mile difference in the 0C isotherm on those charts! crazy differences.

Agree,could really do with centre of low over shetlands just being 50-100 miles further east and keep it just a bit further from low in mid Atlantic.Gives us a bigger wedge and angle of slider will be better.This is going down to the wire.Nothing is ever straight forward in getting cold for the U.K. but if this does happen it could really have implications down the line but I am getting way ahead of myself there.

Hit -6.4 this morning at 7.30 this morning and it still is that temp @ 8.45am!We are now at 111+ consecutive hours at sub zero which has broken the 104hours we had in BFTE in 2018!Very impressive.can we squeeze another day of sub zero as we are starting 2.2 degrees lower than yesterday

Temperature dropped sharply in last hour.was -1.2 at 9pm now @9.55 is -2.4!!If skies clear some places in south east will get to -8 at least I would suggest!See Shap up north already below -10!!

It’s really not far away from being a good run though and just a shift of just 150 miles eastwards and about 50 miles southwards of that low just west of Ireland and you would probably have a cold looking run.As others have said with such an unusual NH pattern we are getting different scenarios thrown up every run with no continuity at all!Makes it fascinating model watching tbh whether you like cold or mild!

Since just before 5pm Saturday I haven’t got above -0.2 here that’s 90+ hours sub zero!In BFTE 2018 I was 104 consecutive hours so may even beat that!I call that impressive and tbh the models have underestimated level of cold here by about 1-1.5 degrees each day(maybe because of snow cover?)

Well I honestly thought we would get above zero with the sun being out today but we only got to -0.6 and as at 2.45 has already dropped to -1.2 so actually colder than yesterday..If it stays clear tonight I reckon we could challenge the coldest night of this spell which was Sunday morning when we hit -5 exactly!

Got down to -4.3 here again this morning and as at 12.25 still -0.8-that’s 91 consecutive hours it has stayed below zero.Looks like we will just creep above zero between 1-3pm before another hard frost tonight. Looks nailed on for milder weather midday Sunday and the optimism from yesterday about it being a mild blip seems to have gone as it just looks average for next week so chances of cold for Christmas has dropped.That said still time for that to change and nothing past 120hours set in stone by any means.Enjoy the last few says of this current cold spell though,it’s been quite impressive compared to last few years.

Well we manage another ice day here but only just.Temperature warmed upto -0.2 at 1pm but then has dropped since then and as at 3.45 now down to -1.1.Think there will be too much cloud to get too cold but would expect -1.5- -2.5 tonight here. Latest Icon on Mod thread shortens mild spell to probably only 36 hours now from midday Sunday to about early hours Tuesday morning before cold weather comes back!If and it is a big if this turnaround happens it will be very unusual for a mild to cold switch as opposed to the other way round happen at short notice!!

Still -0.8 here in Locksbottom so as we went negative temperature wise about 5pm Saturday that is over 66hrs where we have stayed below zero,the longest period since BFTE 2018. Sadly think we will creep in positive territory today within the next hour or so and will probably wait till about 3ish before temperatures start dropping again. Yes as others have mentioned things have got more positive for coldies looking at models and trends as it looks like we will only have maybe 3 mild days(18th-21st) before it turns colder again and even that could be shortened.Scotland I think will pretty much stay in freezer the whole time.TBH I like the cold and snow but they can keep the -15s as -7/8 is cold enough for me