Hotspur62

Merry Christmas to you all on here Although it will be another green one this year Winter is coming it seems in early January so we will all have to wait a bit longer for snow if snow is your thing Have a great day people

Just wanted to thank you MIA for all the time you spend on this thread.I take my hat off to you for your dedication and wish you a very merry Christmas and look forward to see how the ice progresses in 2024

Another beautiful morning this morning.tipping it down and still semi dark at 8.20️.The only positive is it is 11.4 so the heating hasn’t come on

Well it looks like the models are slowly moving towards the mild solution over the Xmas period.It seems the teleconnections have all gone down the pan with not enough amplitude and as a result little chance of blocking occurring in the next few weeks(didn’t the same thing happen in the summer when we were expecting a good July and august but that happen either).All the pre winter optimism is slowly ebbing away although out of the 3 winter months December was not expected to bring anything cold wise so the cold snap at beginning of the month was a bonus.I suppose things could just as easily flip back but the big Azores/Iberian High really seems to be the biggest influencer atm and it would be great if that could be less robust!!

Was raking the leaves off the lawn(never ending job atm as oaks always last to drop) today and although cloudy reached 10.6 here which was pleasant and thankfully no rain.Saw a bee buzzing around and a butterfly-it’s December 16th !!Shows that our winters are getting warmer and this has been a regular occurrence in last 10 years or so.Prior to 1990 would not have seen this in this neck of the woods.Looks mild for next 5 days in the SE.Thereafter 50/50 whether it goes colder from 22/23rd December or we stay mild but still so much divergence in the models think we won’t know till Monday night before we can gain confidence on where our weather is heading for Xmas

Been another gloomy old day here in Locksbottom but thankfully not as wet as Tuesday and Wednesday but still haven’t seen the sun since early Tuesday morning.Not quite as cold as yesterday which was raw and temperature hit 7.6 today.Looks like next 4 days for most of the SE should be dry but limited sunshine but temperatures will be in the 9-12 range which is above average and should save a bit on the heating billToo much volatility in the models to even think about Xmas eve/day.May have more of an idea by Sunday evening for the following weekend.Dont give up on the Christmas period being cold just yet

For me nothing much has changed in the last 48 hours regarding prospects for Xmas period.Still so much uncertainty as has been proved what the latest JMA,ECM AND GFS are throwing up and tbh I think there will still be as much uncertainty by Sunday evening.The teleconnections are still playing out and the outcome of these when we move into phase 8/1 May well determine if we do have a final third of December that is colder than average.I do agree that we do need sustained heights or wedges to appear if we are to have a cold spell as opposed to a cold snap and maybe these will appear in the modelling by end of the weekend.As have said by many others don’t have too high expectations and you won’t be too disappointed if it goes the shape of the pear.There are many positives going into this winter and the way the atmosphere is behaving leads me to believe that we will all enjoy a cold spell and snow in January or February.

Well I think the models are slowly getting to grips with things but there will be a lot of chopping and changing in next 48 hours as they get to grips with things like the Canadian warming and what impact that has as just one example.I think the next 5-7 days look temperature wise above average overall before starting to drop early/mid next week .IMHO still too far out to make a judgement call on Xmas eve/day as just too far out-Models are struggling to 144hr lol!!Interesting to note the development of storm going up east coast of US next Sunday/Monday as that will have implications for us for next week As many have said on here it wasn’t expected to get cold till last third of December anyway(if indeed that happens) so things are generally moving as expected as we progress through December?Like others have said I have concerns over heights in southern Europe but if the projected trough can dig as far south as possible this will help hopefully going forward but that is too far ahead to get excited about so I will just sit back and see how things develop on this wonderful forum

After heavy rain stopped here at 7.25 this morning we had a dry spell till about 11am when the heavens opened and had 2 rumbles of thunder about 11.30 along with the rain.Had a slight lull in the rain but it’s come back hard again in last 10 mins and had another rumble of thunder 2 mins ago.Its so dark as well.Currently 7.8 degrees so not too cold but that’s about the only positive!!

That’s funny my aunt and uncle have a place in Somerset West near Cape Town-It was 36 a few days ago there but going back to a more pleasant 26/27 over next few days!!

That’s incredibly cold.My best mate used to live there in the 90s and he used to hate the winters there.Not only the cold but lack of daylight hours in the winter months really affected him.Looks like it will warm up there by Friday to around the zero mark which will feel tropical to what they have atm!!

Miserable day out there.Wasnt light till about 7.45 this morning and one of those days where it is just not going to get properly light.Times like this where I feel SAD and just want to hibernate.Be great to see the sun again after 3 miserable days here.Currently 6 degrees and just feels raw

Please not Option 1 !. That would upset a lot of people on this forum including me but you are correct to point out it’s a possibility .

Although a possibility I think that after this week which will see a fair bit of rain ,we may well dry out a bit week commencing 11th December.For me it is the end of that week around 15th that may see a Mid Atlantic ridge form and then hopefully more extensive northern blocking from around 22nd December just before Xmas .It has been such a strange year weather wise and we have a lot of factors that favour colder than average temperatures this winter that we haven’t had for years.If we don’t get one or two cold spells this winter it will be a major disappointment .Would be great to have a white Xmas for the UK( not too much so people can travel round safely)

Well this time last week there was a lot of discussion about how long the cold would last for and it varied from going milder by today on some models and maybe Wednesday by others.On the whole the models have done ok I feel and even though this part of Kent didn’t see any lying snow others in the north of the U.K. did see lying snow with some in the Lake District getting a right pasting on Saturday.We are now in a period of unsettled bog standard winter weather I feel for another 10-14 days before we may see a switch back to colder weather from around 16th-18th December if the MJO switches into the colder phases as per forecasts.A big shout out to Metcast and Tamara on the teleconnections as they really explain things well on this aspect of the weather and although I don’t fully understand it all I am getting the jist of it!! If things go according to plan we may be in with our best shot of a white Xmas for years.Indeed I can only remember falling snow on Xmas day once in my lifetime(52 years now) so we must be due another one!

Another bitter day here with a bit of everything.Started cloudy and although temperature got down to -4 in early hours it was only -2.7 at 6.45.We then had some snow flurries about 10.30 to 11.45 that gave a very light dusting but from about 12.30 the sun came out and sky was clear but you could feel the temperature start dropping about 2.45 and it was below zero by 4.Currently -1 and like an ice rink out there.Be careful tonight if you venture outside.

I just can’t believe how mild the US is by 10th December(would post chart if I knew what I was doing).Is that the effect of the Canadian warming?.Over to our shores and its incredible the uncertainty of the models for just 72hrs and the implications that has going forward to the middle of next week.I still think the less cold conditions will prevail but for how long is anybody’s guess.Fascinating times and I think that Northern England and Scotland may not warm up much at all!!

Looks like the cold in Scandi is holding then!

One of the biggest things for me is we need to keep scandi as cold as possible so it gets deeply entrenched there.It started getting cold there last third of October and November has been super cold.It reminds me of late 70s and 80s when Scandi highs seemed more common than they are now(probably just me) and those winters were very harsh.Models are pretty much set for a mainly cold but predominantly dry spell till mon/tues and then becoming milder and more unsettled till end of next working week(8th dec).After that history has told me anything can happen but if jet keeps on a southerly jet,scandi stays cold and other things that others have mentioned stay on course we may go cold again from 10th but that is speculative.Either way fascinating on this forum and as ever big to all contributors on here that make it such an informative and fun read

Looks like NE England could get some hefty snow showers off that chart.As others have said ,and I tend to agree ,I feel this system coming in from the south west will shift southwards in the next 48 hours which has huge implications for us in the U.K. and there will be winners and losers as is always the case in these instances.A 50-100 mile swing south or north will mean snow for some and none for others.Most likely we won’t know till Wednesday where it will impact and even then I wouldn’t be certain till Wednesday night as these features always seem to be so hard to predict with great accuracy.That said the High Res models (arpege & Harmoine)will come into play by then so will be interesting to see what they are showing.Whatever happens it’s a great watch and think after the relatively mild day tomorrow we will see below above temperatures until next weekend with the threat of snow possible anywhere in the U.K. late this week.

Up early and just had a look at the weather station and down to -0.9.Forecast on met office app was plus 1.Hope if/when the cold spell arrives mid onwards next week that the app over estimates the temperature like overnight as that could mean the difference between rain or snow for a lot of us.! yesterday was one of those rare days that the temperature seemed to drop throughout the day.I started off working at 8am and it was about 9 degrees and by the time I finished at 4-15 it was 4 degrees and I was frozen due to the strong north wind and it’s windchill . It seems just like last year winter May come early again compared to the last 5/6 years but will longevity result as there seems to be many factors favouring chances of a colder than normal winter.Let’s hope that we can all enjoy some lovely winter snow walks if snow is your thing(let’s be honest that probably applies to 90% of us on here) Have a good weekend everyone

Looks like winter will really get going for You Carinthian as next week progresses and into the following week.A great start to the ski season one would think for Austria Switzerland Italy and France.Even Scotland could get into some of the action by next weekend.Also Scandinavia seems to have had one of its coldest Novembers for a good 10 years I think.If that cold stays in place we in Blighty could be well positioned if we can get some cold from the North East this winter

After a damp morning with steady rain starting from about 8.30 -12.30(although not as heavy as Tuesdays rain) it is slowly drying up but it has a raw cold feel today and max we hit was only 7.1 and is very dark today light wise edit: just started raining again as I type️ a right proper miserable day!!

Looks simply awesome!!Thanks so much for continually sending these beautiful pictures of Austria both in summer and Winter.I went there for my one and only ski holiday 30 years ago to Soll but smashed my knee halfway through the holiday and unfortunately never been able to ski again!!But it’s a beautiful country and seeing all the snow there received each winter partly makes up for the lack of it here in a funny sort of way

Really was a horrible and unexpectedly wet morning in the orpington area with a narrow Band of heavy showers peppered us from about 8.50 to about 11.30 with some really heavy rain.Got soaked working in that!Thankfully the afternoon was drier with only the odd shower but it certainly doesn’t look too clever for this region on Wednesday evening into Thursday with both strong winds and heavy rain forecast.Think there could be Amber Warnings for us in that time period but just keep checking the forecasts as particularly with the wind ,subtle changes in where the Low tracks will have big implications.Stay safe people