sukayuonsensnow

This was the 1st February 2019 snowfall? Yes this was a complete surprise for the most part, and very local. Pretty much anywhere between the M4, M3, and A303 had a good snowfall, but literally 10-20 minutes drive outside of that zone and not much snow. In Northern Hampshire we had quite a bit of snow out of this, but in nearby Guildford and many parts of Surrey there wasn't nearly as much. Looking at the current radar, something tells me this potential snow event would have been a non-starter anyway even if it had gone over much of our region. Most of the precipitation dissipating and weakening off as it moves east over the channel. Instead we have a crisp and very cold night, probably one of the colder nights of the winter thus far for our region.

Of course! There is potential but it really depends on how cold the air is into next week and what type of precipitation is moving in off the North Sea. Will need to monitor this in the upcoming model runs. If the air is cold enough next week then some southern parts could get a decent snowfall. It looks likely we will get some type of precipitation off the North Sea into next week for a time, just a question of how cold it is and how heavy the precipitation is. Based on the current trends I'd be surprised - BUT - things can change of course even at short notice. Some of the heaviest snowfalls I've seen in my local area in the UK have popped up at short notice, sometimes even by complete surprise.

Looking at the overall models, I would be surprised at this point if most of southern UK has a notable snowfall (7cm accumulation or more) in the next couple weeks. There's still potential but this cold spell is more for northern England, Central and Northern Wales and Scotland. There's still matters to be determined with how cold the air is over the UK next week, and that will determine what falls out of the sky for many.

GFS12 today, that finger of colder air seems to head towards Scandinavia. Might mean we risk a milder spell, however cooling down Scandinavia could make things interesting later. (especially If we get another easterly/northeasterly) Of course again this is far out as weather goes, but I am looking closely at this development in the more medium term as it has been picked up a few times recently.

Yup. Unlike the GFS18 last night, this finger of cold from the north went too far west into the Atlantic, the GH also went more west and weakened somewhat, and with low pressure moving in from the Atlantic it draws up southerly winds and milder weather for most. Something to watch in the coming days, on: a) if we get an area of cold from somewhere else in the NH, and b) where exactly it goes and how this will affect the weather patterns in Europe and over the Atlantic Of course this is far out, but if the trends continue on a colder air source getting closer to Europe/Atlantic Ocean it is something to watch.

GFS6 - where's this low pressure over Scandinavia headed? Seems to be bringing a finger of that colder air with it.... Edit: The way there's a low next to it moving into the NW of Scotland, and also watching the low over Europe on this one.

That's a hefty snowstorm over central France on the GFS6 through middle of next week. Yes we had something like that in northern England (mostly) on last nights GFS18, but it is interesting that again a low pressure has become stuck in the same area for a prolonged period bringing snow. Let's see if this trend continues in other model runs through today and where the low ends up.

That low pressure sure sticks around the north of England on the GFS18. (middle of next week) My gut tells me the higher ground of northern England will be under very deep snow in the next couple weeks. The detail will no doubt change - it probably will even for tomorrow let alone next week - but something is definitely brewing.

Hello all! I've been following this forum for near a decade, finally created an account. (call me SOS for short) Still doesn't look fully settled on the track of wintry mix/snow tonight/tomorrow across southern parts of UK. Will have to keep an eye on the radar as well as possibly models later. GFS12 looks interesting on Saturday/Sunday, that low development looks kinda similar to the 5/6 Jan 2010 low. It probably won't happen but it does highlight the possibility of surprises as this week continues. One to watch closely.

Seconding this to the top two. Being based in NE Hampshire I remember the 21st December 2009 event well. It started off with some sleet in the morning, think I got my hair cut around then. Then it rained (some of the rain was heavy) and washed away the 5 inches of snow already on the ground (for the most part) from a few days previously (the night of 17/18 December, this was forecast). Then it turned to flakes of heavy wet snow which lasted until well into the evening. I think 5/6 inches of snow in total fell from this event. 1st February 2019 I think anywhere between the M3/A303 and M4 got lucky (or unlucky if you prefer) with this particular snow event, given how uneventful the winter of 2018/2019 was otherwise. It was interesting since a low had kinda developed at close range models the night/morning before, and I didn't take it too seriously until I was at work and snow started to fall and become heavier and heavier. It was interesting since not far to the north/south/east of this area, there wasn't much snow to be had. It was a very localised and significant snow event for a very specific area of central southern England. Northern Hampshire was in the firing line for this intense snowfall. I had to close work early as the snow was so deep, and more crucially, unforecast. I measured 16cm in my hometown later that evening, wasn't what I was expecting. Surprises can and do happen sometimes in our part of the world.