sukayuonsensnow

The M3 corridor is a good location for Thames streamers as well during an easterly cold spell (or more specifically when winds are ENE). When they happen.

I think to have a level head, look at the MO long range forecast, as well as the seasonal forecasts issued by Netweather and TheWeatherOutlook. Not that these will be on the money, but in terms of general trends they will be closer to the mark. GFS will be all over the shop with the positioning of high pressure, ranging from cloudy and temperatures close to average, to showing a foot or more of snow in Hampshire from an intense snow storm at 384 hours like the other day. High pressure will build later next week, and I think temperatures should remain close to average, maybe slightly above further west and slightly below east. Maybe a few wintry showers might reach some eastern areas after mid month from the east or northeast as the high moves west/northwest enough. I think towards the end of month and early February will be often wet and potentially mild at times. The crucial period for any jackpot winter weather is between 5-15 February for me. There could be surprises either side of that, but if nothing happens during 5-15 Feb then Winter 21/22 is a bust. It will be interesting to see MO's long range updates in the next few days as that period comes into view.

It was only briefly and nothing settled, at least not in the very NE of Hampshire. Some parts close to the M3 near Farnborough/Fleet appeared to have the heavier precipitation for longer (according to the radar) so I don't know if there was a brief dusting there.

Some sleet/wet snow mixed with the rain here in NE Hampshire.

GFS 6 looks closer to what I think will actually happen later in the month. The important thing is the positioning of the high pressure, and the cold pool to our east. Besides maybe a few wintry showers in some eastern areas I don't think anything exciting will happen yet. Look more at moderate term trends, the GFS can barely forecast 2-3 days away let alone weeks.

Would be our heaviest snow since 5/6 January 2010 for sure. But its in FI........

GFS 6 on the sherry this morning. Reminds me of a model run from a couple years ago. My hometown would be snowed in. Can't see it happening myself. But one can dream.......

Well I might as well get my hat seasoned ready, assuming I'm not walking in falling snow with it

I did glance over those too. If it's for 7th February and the seasonal forecasts are anything to go by, it *could* happen. But it's a LONG way to go yet. The models can't even handle the high pressure for later next week never mind beyond then. The models can barely handle a few days away these days. Either way I think something is brewing. There is still all that cold air over Scandinavia which is struggling to be moved on eastwards. If we don't have a memorable cold spell by the end of February I will eat my hat.

Clearly the position of this high pressure later next week isn't set in stone yet. I'm expecting for many it to be cloudy, with fog risk and temperatures around average for the time of year, after the mild and damp spell early next week. Depending on the exact orientation of the high pressure of course, even a small change in the shape or orientation can determine what happens after. Milder and colder options remain on the table for now.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast Sounds like that is probably what will happen, although looking at TWO's seasonal forecast a cold spell in February focused on eastern and southern UK would indicate an easterly or maybe northeasterly - though a northerly with a favourable low pressure slider/channel low may also work. Note most of this forecast so far has been right including the Xmas/New Year period. Severe frosts (-10c or lower) would only happen either with exceptionally cold air or deep snow cover (widely 15cm+ across a widespread area) or both. The BFTE in 2018 was notable for its cold air, temperatures stayed around -9/-10c even under cloud cover and while snowing where I live in the south. Having only been a toddler myself in the 98-99 winter, did the middle of January have a period of high pressure and drier weather for a time?

I've accepted that we probably won't get a January cold spell, and if we do it will be either transient or the models will go into rollercoaster mode like they did with the Christmas period. I'm not expecting much in the south of the UK at least, maybe some wet snowflakes this week for some lucky few. Given that various seasonal forecasts have stuck to the script and continued to do so for January I would start looking for signs of what will happen into February. February is the month of interest where cold/snow is concerned, specifically between the 5-15th February. (Seasonal forecasts indicate a very mild end to February, and perhaps a mild wet start) I probably won't watch much models until at least the middle of January.

Cold spells can and do happen for us, just more components are needed to be in our favour. Despite the current mild spell, there is still VERY cold air in Scandinavia, which is likely to stay there throughout. The mild weather and lows won't make much in roads into the remainder of Europe, which is a good sign. The only thing to pay attention to in the next few weeks is the stratosphere, and potential for a SSW event around mid January. According to TWO's winter forecast: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast The mild spell currently was according to script and was going to happen anyway despite other models suggesting a cold Christmas of recent. The real attention turns to later in January and especially February, with our cold spells likely to come in from the east, and particularly affect southern, southeastern and eastern parts of the UK. The timeline of February 2022 looks somewhat similar to that of February 2021 going by this seasonal forecast, however with a colder Scandinavia and more snow cover over E/NE Europe over a longer period this may work more in our favour for a significant cold spell in early-mid February. Still a long way off however, we don't know where and how much snow will fall, and how cold it will get. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal The Netweather seasonal forecast also backs this up, both also go for a mild end to February after an overall cold or very cold month potentially. For now we have a mild, unsettled spell that will likely last as late as the first third of January. Beyond then it is worth watching both the models and the stratosphere stuff.

I like how whenever I tell my family it might snow on Boxing Day all the models switch to rain and mild. Whenever I tell them it will probably rain and be too mild all the models flip again. I think reverse wishes are in order. I still think New Year will be mild in any case, which would be in line with seasonal forecasts. Still room for surprises before then, though most likely expect rain and for temperatures to be too mild. The biggest question mark period is 26-30th. Especially for the south and west.

Hello all! I will still keep an eye on the models over the next few days, however it is worth noting that long range and seasonal forecasts were indicating a mild end of year/start of January. Anything that would have transpired over the Christmas period snow wise was going to fall into 'nice surprise' territory for me. Models even at this range are still flipping for Boxing Day onwards, although unsettled (especially in western areas) is more of a recurrent theme. We have to look at a potential for a SSW event early-mid January, which would (according to the seasonal forecasts) push very cold air west towards us for the first half of February, perhaps slightly sooner. February would look similar to last February, just a question of whether we get more of a direct impact from that easterly assuming the SSW happens.

Hello all! I just had a look back at Netweather's seasonal forecasts as well as TWO's seasonal forecast. Though I think there could be some surprises for some northern parts of the UK next weekend and the following week, there were suggestions of milder weather with rain for a period towards the end of December and start of January. It's the second half of winter where we need to keep our eyes open. (Probably for a SSW) For Netweather, even earlier in the month there was a chance of a mild or cold end to December, but probably a mild and wet start to the New Year. Either way, I have seen cold spells pop up at short notice from the models. The mini-Beast from the East in mid-March 2018? Of course there could be changes at last minute, and it isn't out of the realms of possibility. Lets see what the 6z and 12z conjure up. (It will probably be an unsettled Christmas period for most) The question right now is where the models keep the cold/mild boundary, and which of those wins out after.

I don't want a November 2009 repeat either! It's been so wet in central southern England lately, I think the last thing anyone wants is (more) major flooding issues. I was acknowledging the similarities between the two years and similar weather events at similar times of the year. I also wonder how the recent weather in northern Scandinavia will influence as well, unusually wintry even for that part of the world this soon in the season. Probably too soon to tell, and depends on the exact track/orientation of the jet stream and low pressures moving through.

My gut is telling me we are in for a cold winter, or at the very least a notable cold spell. A mild and wet winter (certainly the latter) would really not be great for southern UK after the wet summer and fairly wet autumn. Rain seems to get heavier here also, 1-2in of rain in a rain event is becoming more common this year, certainly in my local area. Southern England have had a fairly wet summer and autumn (so far), and are overdue a longer dry period at some point. Weather tends to balance out after a while so after the heavy rains we should have a drier spell for a while at some point. High pressure would take charge for a time, it is just a question of where it would be, when and subsequent wind direction. Otherwise, much of the weather this year reminds me of 2009 weather. Some colder interludes in January, an easterly earlier in February (the snow was much heavier and more widespread that year), and then a wet summer (more so in the south this year). A wet autumn as well with flooding in places. Coincidentally also a drier middle part of October. Of course it isn't exactly the same. Northern UK had an alright summer with more dry and warm weather. If there's further flooding risk in November (more rain, wind and milder than average temperatures) followed by a cold December (drier, frost, fog, and snow?) then would be interesting with the 2009 comparison.

I find it interesting that at time of writing the MO are still convinced about a cold, potentially snowy spell later in the month. This is despite a lot of the computer models hinting at very mild weather instead. They have been consistent about a cold end to February for a while now, despite uncertainties about the mid-term (5-10 days ahead). I wonder if the models are going to reverse and go for a colder outlook soon. It would be interesting as normally we would have a cold spell appearing in 10 days and most models agreeing, only for it to get downgraded and not happen nearer the time. This could be a reverse situation where a notably mild setup appears in 10 days time, only for it to not happen nearer the time, or get downgraded. Let's see if later the MO upgrade their longer range forecast. If they still stick with the cold, snowy end to February then it will be interesting to see how the models are in the next week or so.

Hello guys! My guess on the weather for the remainder of February. It is a guess so could be wrong but this is currently what my gut is telling me. This is more focused towards Southern England. The next few days bring cold, often cloudy weather, with temperatures struggling to get above 0c for many. Mainly dry, with overnight frost. From Sunday mostly rain moves in, and it turns milder next week. Some heavy rain from time to time, but with any drier, sunnier interludes, it could become very mild for a time next week, perhaps feeling Spring-like with temperatures maybe reaching the mid-teens Celsius for a time. Later in February however, the high over the North Sea will re-assert itself over Scandinavia, changing the southerly winds to an easterly. With much of Central, Northern and Eastern Europe still bitterly cold, another easterly spell with sub zero temperatures and snow risk is possible - but not a guarantee. The timing of this is uncertain, and it could be that March starts off cold as well. This is my guess, and may not be 100% right. But based on the general models and synoptics, this is the likelihood. Further west in the region, more risk of spells of rain at times, more east in the region and drier, with very variable temperatures. I wouldn't be surprised if later in the month we went from 16/17c and sunny spells one day, to -2c and snow a couple days later. Tiny differences in pressure can make a huge difference to our weather.

Some pretty potent snow showers on the southern coast of Isle of Wight according to the radar. Not sure if anyone on here based in that area.

Temperatures are of interest for you guys! Mid minus 20s a possibility? -4c in the south seems like a heatwave in comparison. Stay warm and safe if you are based in the north, dangerous cold if you are not careful.

Might be some light snow showers later, I think some of the hi-res models were indicating this. If they make it past the Heathrow/Thorpe Park snow shield that is.

Anyone here based on Isle of Wight? Some heavy snow showers moving in here.

The streamer band is literally over the M3, maybe even the width of the motorway. There will be neighbourhoods of the same village that get more snow than others, it is that localised.