sukayuonsensnow

On that note, anyone got snow in Poole/Bournemouth/New Forest area at the moment?

I hope so! Although won't be until tomorrow daytime as winds go more E/ENE. I don't see the Thames streamer going north of the M4 personally, but really depends on the wind direction. Looks more like an A3 event if at all the other side of London (Epsom, Guildford, Bordon etc.). Maybe M3 tomorrow daytime but we shall see.

Winds still NE or NNE here, so if a streamer sets up via the Thames it will probably go south heading more towards Guildford and the Surrey Hills. Maybe even more south of that (although the North Downs may block the streamer from going too far south). Maybe by morning with that low moving into N France the winds may go more E or ENE. This may in turn push whatever streamer sets up a little more north. Geography is key to these streamers as well.

Some of you may want to keep an eye on what is going on in the English Channel. The moisture south of Cornwall/Devon is moving/developing N/NW. Probably ahead of the low moving into N France. May be of interest later.

This *might* be more relevant to the SW/CS thread, but thought I would bring it up here as well as it could be relevant. Anyone noticing on the radar at the moment the areas of precipitation moving in a N/NW direction, ahead of the low moving into France? There's a light Cherbourg streamer, and another streamer in the English Channel south of East Sussex. Some of it is moving west or southwest, but some of it is moving north. I wonder if this will be of relevance by tomorrow morning for parts of this region. (is this connected to what is going on in the Thames estuary?)

Yeah a few more moderate snow showers heading towards Bedford, Milton Keynes area....... As long as they aren't consistent though, unlikely to bring much accumulation. Had light snow for much of the day in NE Hampshire, a dusting at best due to the snow being very light, powdery, and blown around by the wind - and more crucially, intermittent. Need to hope for a consistent green (or even better, yellow/orange) area of precipitation in the same areas for anything more significant.

Cautious optimism is the key here. Best case scenario this would be similar to the streamer on 28th February 2018. Low pressure to the south (Storm Emma) allowing a ENE, and a streamer - which wasn't really forecast well, was meant to be a predominantly dry evening with some cloud. I think it partly depends on how close the low over N France gets to the UK on exact wind direction, that may also have an impact on where snow showers/streamers are likely. They won't be as widespread but may stick in the same areas for longer due to wind direction. If winds stay NE or worse yet NNE a definite bust. Could be some surprises but by no means a guarantee, at least this side of London. Thank you

Wondering if its worth staying tuned to this in my area. I live adjacent to the M3 so it could just miss or could be a jackpot situation (if you can call it that) Taking the hi-res models literally there is some indication of a localised Thames streamer further west, near the M3/A3 just W/SW of London. The question is will winds veer ENE for us? And will any moderate snowfall make it past the M25? I'm hoping the low moving into N France will correct winds more widely in the region to E or ENE through Tuesday. More likely more snow for those near the Thames estuary and maybe E London.

That blue area heading towards W Europe again!? This could be a very notable February indeed, especially when the air is already cold over us despite the greens and yellows. A few models picking up in this evolution it would seem, still keeping an eye on the progression of Atlantic systems out west as the track of those (later this week included) not quite settled yet. The main thing is it looks mainly dry, which is good news for flood affected areas.

Noticing the wind direction in some eastern areas is beginning to change to a NE or ENE. Something to keep an eye on for some on this thread, wind direction will determine which way precipitation is heading. Some interesting radar watching in the next few hours to come.

Don't take those accumulation charts as gospel. I think hit and miss streamers are a possibility for our region in the next few days. Some of us may get the jackpot and get several inches of snow, others may barely get a dusting - even if 10-20 miles away.

This reminds me of a similar event in mid March 2013. Some localised areas done well with the snow along the south coast and Channel Islands (northern France in particular done very well), but there was various snow flurries with little settling for the most part. It was windy and similarly cold to today as well. Hopefully that wind can provide some streamers from later this evening onwards, and as the winds ease more settling can happen. We need the winds to go more E/ENE and moderate a little to the point so that they can still bring in showers off the North Sea, but then they can settle. You'd need really heavy snow with these winds to settle to great amounts.

Thames streamer potential there me thinks. Bare in mind during BFTE in 2018 some of us had a Thames streamer with fairly persistent light to moderate snow late on 28th February 2018, this wasn't really forecast though some of the hi-res models hinted at some light precipitation from streamers earlier in the day. Don't take the intensity of the streamers shown on models like this as gospel. Could be more of an event.

Looking like a cold month for the UK. The Netherlands though......... We will have to see if this trend continues, I do wonder though if The Atlantic will make more in roads before then.......

I am also watching the Thames streamer potential between Sunday night and Tuesday. Depending on exact wind direction areas adjacent to the M4/M3/A3 will be at risk. I'm close to the M3 and you are close to the A3 so for both of us this could be an interesting few days.

Being located in NE Hampshire I could really be in either this thread or the South East one. I suspect similar in other western Home Counties to the west of London. A bust snow situation for some on here could be the jackpot for others. This week we will probably see this situation on a few occasions.

Depends on your location. Think we need a Central Southern England thread on its own This would be great for many of us further east. Still could go more west nearer the time so still one to watch.

Hmm where's that blue sector over Belarus/W Russia headed? It's already -10c in the Netherlands under the orange......... Speculative of course, but interesting to watch this.......

End of week may be of interest for battleground scenarios (always potential the easterly may prevail and push this more west). This via GFS 12. Central Southern England could do well here, but I suspect similar to a snow event in January 2013 higher ground in C/E Wales would benefit the most in this setup, perhaps N Ireland too. This will need watching in the coming days.

It is very faint on that model, but areas near the M3/M4 between Salisbury Plain and Thames estuary would be at risk. Streamers will be hard to model in advance.

Also highlighting the Thames streamer potential ahead of the low as winds veer ENE.

Adding to this post. If winds come from the NE and bring in a Thames streamer, the main risk areas would be E Hampshire, Surrey, potentially northern W/E Sussex, and potentially Berkshire. More southern areas would be trickier again due to geography, as you have the Surrey Hills/North Downs/Kent Downs to consider. Areas adjacent to the A272 between Winchester and E Sussex would be very hit and miss because of the hills to the north/north east. If winds come from the ENE and bring in a Thames streamer, then areas along the M3 from London to maybe as far as Salisbury Plain or more realistically Basingstoke would be most at risk, perhaps extending to the M4 corridor or nearer to the A31/A3 around Hog's Back. If winds come directly from the E and bring in a Thames streamer, areas along the M4 would be more at risk, perhaps extending as far north as the Chilterns, and as far south as areas adjacent to the M3/maybe A303. The issue with streamers for our region is wind direction (as we are more west), and geography with where hills are located. As such it is very difficult to forecast and even if you are in the right place for wind direction to bring those snow showers in, all it takes is a hill in between you and the snow for things to become a non-event. That said said hilly areas would get some of the deeper snow amounts.

For those of us in the northeast of the region, we need to keep an eye on the wind direction after Storm Darcy during Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday. It wouldn't take much to bring a Thames streamer down the M4/M3/A3 and affect many adjacent areas, with considerable snowfall locally. Especially when you take the low pressure on Tuesday into the equation. 28th February 2018 late we had a Thames streamer ahead of Storm Emma. The exact synoptics of early this week with low pressure to our south and convection off the North Sea might be something to watch. There's the lower possibility of snow from the south, but if anything that will mainly affect far southern and southwestern areas. Something to watch for those in this thread as well.

Central Southern England is probably one of the most difficult regions to forecast right in these setups. I do think we will see some snow, maybe 2-3in by Monday is my personal guess. That said go a little more towards Basingstoke/Newbury and they may see very little snow until later in the week. Much of the heavier snow is to the east of us - but it wouldn't take much for the winds out of Storm Darcy to throw in a Thames streamer for us. Of course forecasting streamers is never easy, and some of us may get 4in+ of snow while 10 minutes down the road gets barely a dusting. We are east enough to be at risk of snow flurries or streamers from the east, but west enough to increase that uncertainty. We are also east and north enough in the event of a battleground situation to take notice. There are no substantial hills over to our east to block off precipitation there (that would get in the way), so geography is also on our side - but it comes down to locality. Pay-off events can still happen though. We'll have to stay tuned to the forecast and keep an eye on the radar.

I think for most of our region (more so in northeastern/eastern parts) though the outer bands of Storm Darcy could give a good covering in places, the streamer potential is more of note. Eg. *if* we get a Thames streamer with winds from the ENE and a line of snow showers heading through London and down the M3 towards Basingstoke and maybe as far as Salisbury Plain. Streamers are hard to forecast - but something to watch Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday. Could be some surprises.