sukayuonsensnow

Not many Berkshire/Hampshire/Oxfordshire/Buckinghamshire/Surrey peeps on this thread or the CS England regional thread I see Being in NE Hampshire, I think I will end up with 2-3 inches of snow by the end of Sunday, being on the very edge of Storm Darcy. That's my prediction. Depends partly on the transition Saturday night and how quickly snow settles. MO forecasts seem optimistic about snow flurries continuing for much of the day here on Sunday. I'm more curious about potential streamers, especially if a Thames streamer sets up and winds veer ENE. Usually in this case the streamer goes through London then heads down the M3 towards Basingstoke, affecting areas roughly between the M4 and A3/A31 with varying degrees of snow amounts. If NE it may head more towards Surrey and Kent, with areas near Guildford, south of London getting the snow, becoming more borderline for areas near the M3 though. I think away from the very east (parts of Kent, Essex and Suffolk) a Thames streamer would be far more disruptive snow wise than the outer bands of Storm Darcy.

GFS 00 doesn't look too good for our region, hopefully can disregard. But the possibility is there for precipitation to be too Far East then too keen a warm up later in week with rain.

Depends where heavier snow is and how long it stays there. I was more specific and said the Chilterns nearer to the M1, eg., Berkhamsted, Tring, Dunstable, Whipsnade, and other nearby villages to the west/southwest of Luton and northwest of Hemel Hempstead. 8-15cm for the Aylesbury area? (more over the hills). Unless the snow is really light and doesn't settle too quickly 5cm seems conservative imo.

That's a good guess. Need to keep an eye on Saturday night, if precipitation is heavy and evaporative cooling speeds up the process of the rain turning to snow that may make a big difference for many of us.

I think there will be a decent snow event for more eastern parts of the region, especially over the Chilterns. 5-15cm probable away from the south coast and west of the A34 (highway between Bicester and Winchester). Thats my guess. Maybe a little more over higher ground? Somewhere might get 23cm....... Hopefully there will be some snow later in the week for more of us in the region as Atlantic lows try to move in.

Last few snow events they've really under forecast the snow amounts even at short range for me in NE Hampshire. 31st January 2019/1st February 2019 - 3-7cm - though that was a little lower than what we got, the extra 4-6in the next day was a complete surprise for many Central Southern areas within a zone between the A37, M4, M25, M3 and A303. A very conservative snow forecast that ended up being a much bigger event. 24th January 2021 - Was only expected to get a few cm at best, but as the band of heavy snow started to pivot, it became heavy and some got 3in of snow within 90-120 minutes. It really depends on how quickly the rain turns to snow Saturday night, how quickly the snow settles, and who gets the heaviest snow for the longest (24th January a very localised area near Derby got lucky). I wouldn't be surprised if 40cm fell somewhere, probably a higher part of the North Downs to the S/SE of London, or the Chilterns (more so near the M1). Probably not far off in Amsterdam across the channel, but for London a few inches of lying snow by Monday is probably a good guess.

Going by the current models I think 5-15cm is probable for many of us, away from maybe the south coast which won't get very much snow on this occasion (a dusting or light covering). Depends how heavy the snow is on Sunday, how quickly it turns to snow overnight Saturday into Sunday (I feel like the timing of the temperatures going down, and how heavy the precipitation is, isn't quite nailed yet). Some local hills probably more, maybe 9/10in for the North Downs and Chilterns? I think how much snow we get on the ground depends on the exact developments on Saturday night. A couple weeks ago a friend of mine near Basingstoke only had a few cms of snow, yet in NE Hampshire we had 7cm of snow as the band intensified and started to pivot as it crossed Fleet/Farnham/Hartley Wintney. Detail on intensity of snow and evaporative cooling overnight Saturday into Sunday may be hard to forecast. Could be some very deep snow on some hills locally regarding this if conditions are favourable enough. Forecasting 2-5cm over a broad area may be undermining the event in this case. The wind also needs to be taken into consideration, as it could become fairly windy with snow drifts for some of us. Not as windy as the Netherlands though, they look set to get a very infamous winter storm/blizzard over the weekend.

Best case scenario this is looking similar to early February 2009, which was a very snowy spell but didn't last that long into the month. I wasn't personally bought into the idea of a longer cold spell or anything especially cold a la BFTE 2018. The models moving the low pressure more north over the weekend shouldn't be ignored. Still need more model runs to be resolved, a shift in that low pressure makes all the difference between mild rain and snowmageddon. Even if there is widespread snow I'm still not bought on the idea of a prolonged very cold spell, maybe 5-7 days at most at least the further south you go. Still some interesting model runs to come this week me thinks.

There has been a signal for an area of snow over N France/Belgium and/or south/south east England next Sunday. Is it worth watching or too early to say at this stage? Some of the models have moved away from it but it has been a trend for next Sunday in various recent model runs.

North Sea can generate sea-effect snow if very cold air goes over the North Sea from Siberia/Russia/Scandi, usually with an intense Scandic high (like BFTE we had in 2018) but not always. Sea effect snow can produce a lot of snow in streamers, most notably in NW Japan (this would be us if we had an easterly from Siberia for the entire winter). (a streamer is a series of showers, usually associated with snow in the winter that affect the same sort of area, though some places 10-20 miles outside may get very little). These streamers from the east in the UK usually clip NE England, E Scotland, E England, Kent (known as a Kent clipper) and around the river Thames (known as a Thames streamer, 1/2 February 2009 I remember a great Thames streamer then). My take is that areas adjacent to the Bristol Channel, you have higher land parts like the Cotswolds nearby, which may mitigate some of the snow showers from getting more west, unless you get streamers over the English Channel that move north (or they form into a channel low). Think something like this happened in some SW areas in the second BFTE in March 2018. As well as that, to the northwest of the Bristol Channel you also have the hilly/mountainous parts of Wales, which may mitigate precipitation from the northwest from making it here as well. Higher ground areas absorb more of those showers, unless its an actual low pressure/trough/frontal system moving in. If you have a cold/westerly or northwesterly at the right angle, I suppose you could have snow showers/streamers in these areas adjacent to the Bristol Channel too, although I don't know with that wind direction if it would be marginal. Bristol Channel areas usually benefit the most from a channel low or a slider in regards to major snow events, partly due to geography. Storm Emma being a relatively recent example in early March 2018. I think I explained things OK, maybe someone else can chip in. I'm not always the best at explaining this sort of thing. There may be anomalous examples of particular snow events that may disprove what I said above.

I literally envision one day driving past Reading on the M4, one side near Wokingham and Theale it is rain, but snow cover and snow in Earley and Winnersh.

There might be some surprises tomorrow, depending of course on the intensity of the precipitation. Just thinking back a week or two to Storm Christoph and the snow that brought some parts of NW England and parts of the Midlands. I suspect any snow though (certainly settling snow) will be for the Cotswolds and maybe the tops of the Chilterns. But I wouldn't rule out a dusting of snow in other places, again especially north of the M4. With any intensity to precipitation, the colder air coming south, and evaporative cooling, surprises may happen. Of course I am speculating, forecasting evaporative cooling and the impact on precipitation can be tricky.

Almost looks like that yellow line is following a certain motorway.........

Looks like the Derby area have had our Feb 2019 type snow event, and similarly localised too. Looks like some light snow flurries starting to develop ahead of the returning (and weakening) band of snow as it begins its journey south again. Might be of interest to some in northern parts of the region around Oxfordshire/Buckinghamshire.

It seems like more of a wintry mix away from high ground. That said for some in the region it might be of interest as it gets dark and temperatures drop a little.

Anyone here get more than 8cm? Seems many in the region had around 7/8cm (3in) from the band of snow this morning going by posts.

Anyone near Derby here? How much settled snow do you have at the moment?

Also I think many in this region benefitted a lot from the intensity of the snow. Wasn't expecting it to be as heavy as that, with 2-5cm being more likely.

Hello all! Around 3 inches of snow in NE Hampshire as well (on the grass). For a 2 hour snowfall event this is very impressive, who knows what could have been had the snow pivoted on us and stayed all day at that intensity. 1st February 2019 would have paled in comparison me thinks. I wonder how cold our region will get tonight though with that snow cover. Looking at you, Benson in Oxfordshire.

15cm in Odiham.

GFS12 is a bank, me thinks! Doubt it will come off anything close to this, but one winter lover can dream.........

Is this low pressure on Friday worth watching as a potential snow event? Its not the first time GFS has highlighted this as a possibility. It really depends on how that low from the northwest interacts with us. Whether it keeps the energy, if a new low forms out of it, or whether it decays before it moves into England. Also how far east it gets. I don't know if it is that well supported though, could be a non-event for more southern areas. Something to watch at least.

Looking at the temperatures a lot of it look like being rain or sleet, despite the white on the model. Deja vu maybe? (like early next week) Still some things to be settled with this.

Just for fun post: Would be great if that purple area of cold moved ever closer to the UK. A few runs have shown this at the end recently. In reality, next week still looks uncertain on the detail at this stage. I suspect cold with outbreaks of mostly rain from the east (maybe wintry on higher ground). The temperatures are just a touch too mild. What happens with that high pressure is very much TBD especially later next week.

Yup. I'm also watching the temperature forecasts for the pink snow on the model over much of the UK. If its 2c or more I'm not buying it at this stage, unless you get a heavier burst of precipitation or you are on higher ground. The potential is there but until those temperatures go down a bit (or we get a lengthier spell of heavier precipitation) it is essentially a similar setup to this week. Nevertheless some interesting model watching indeed.