sukayuonsensnow

On the immediate coast? OK thank you. Anyone a little further inland as the radar shows dark green/pink. Probably somewhere close to the A35 in that area.....

Anyone here in the Weymouth/Dorchester/Wareham area able to report? Radar showing thunder snow over you.........

Would be nice! Of course by then the models would do the thing of adjusting the low pressure more south so places south of the M4 would get the storm. (Or it just ends up in France) Next weekend and beyond is still FI but will be watching with interest. One thing I have noticed more if the GFS trying to bring milder air from the northwest or west rather than southwest next weekend, which would be less ideal especially for transient snow/cold reload potential.

Is it me or does GFS 18 seem less cold in some southern parts, even with the current setup?

The thing for me was I noticed how similar the weather this year had been compared with the years of 1976 and 1995, although after the recent autumn 1976 seems like a nearer match. Both years had chilly or cold Decembers, especially in the north. I had a feeling we were in for an interesting December since September. I also still feel that unless we get a SSW in January that February will be a milder month and probably the wetter winter month of the three. But hopefully much interest on here before then......

Even early next week is FI, but I'm curious to see where that low in Denmark ends up on the GFS 18...........

Yup. Every time someone says the FI charts are like 1963, 1981, 2009/2010, 2010 etc. the odds of them coming off become much less. Also unless you're in Northern Scotland if you want it to snow just say we might get wintry showers, don't say "snow". You'll scare it away

Shades of 5/6 January 2010 if that GFS came off for 10 days time...... Of course a long way to go until then but getting interesting in the medium term.

It's just for fun at this stage, but I'm watching that finger of cold moving into Scandinavia after 200 hours and which way it is headed....... (on the GFS 18)

I feel like the only person here who hasn't seen any snow potential from most of the charts in the reliable timeframe. Mid single figures and cloud/fog with a few rain showers off the North Sea seems to be the order of the day. It will feel seasonal for a while but anything resembling December 2010 is probably far fetch'd. Will be surprised in the next couple weeks if there is any settling snow in the UK away from northern hills.

It is interesting although a number of prolific weather forecasters are going for a mild February, and the wetter month of the three. Unless a SSW comes into play. January will probably have the better winter prospects of the three winter months (Dec, Jan, Feb).

Yup agreed. What I don't expect to see in the first 10 days of December is any kind of very cold snowy spell, and if anyone has been following the long range forecasts this should have been at the back of everyone's minds. Cloud, temperatures mid single figures (4-8c), in a chilly-but-not-especially cold E/NE wind is what I am expecting, maybe with coastal rain showers in the east. Towards mid December is uncertain at this stage, so FI should be treated as FI as a range of outcomes are possible. Probably a drier outlook than recently, and nothing especially mild.

Part of me wants to say "The Beast cometh" But the winds are ESE from Ukraine/Black Sea, so temperatures would probably more likely be mid single figures with rain/hill sleet showers for some.

My early thoughts for winter that I posted in the early thoughts thread back at the end of September. Still sticking with it for now, it is interesting looking at the models and discussions regarding December at the moment. I still think most of the interest is further north next month, with a very low possibility of a more significant cold spell for all (this is less likely and probably towards the mid/second half of the month if at all). I suspect the first half of December will be chilly (after a mildish start) but drier, with frosty nights, fog for some, and temperatures around mid-single figures by day. I also think now February will have above average temperatures, rather than slightly above - unless there is a SSW in January.

Still sticking with my current thoughts for this winter for now. If anything some of the recent posts and model updates are firming it up for me. Only way I see February being cold is if there is a SSW mid-late January. Otherwise February the milder month of the three, just some question marks on how much rainfall.

Given how similar the weather this year has been to 1976 and 1995, a cold start to the winter would complete those similarities. The question is how wet/dry will it be before then during the remainder of Autumn......

Besides a very localised area of Southern England from Bath to Bagshot having a decent snowfall, this was certainly not the case. (Regarding blizzards)

I wouldn't mind another Feb 2019, the start of that month had an unexpected notable snowfall (7 inches of lying snow) for my local area, then it was straight to Spring/early summer later in the month. I think December this year will also be close to or slightly below average temperatures, with a greater than normal chance of a more notable cold spell with snow risk in northern UK especially. How below average will depend on how cold the air is to the north of the UK, as I do think mild and wet incursions are possible especially in the south. (Basing this on how similar this year's weather has been to 1976/1995, but this year's September has ended up slightly above average temperature wise so I don't think a cold December is likely, but I also am not ruling it out) Either way I don't see Feb 2023 being a particularly wintry month, either early Spring as you say or very autumnal. Unless a SSW throws a spanner in the works.......

A few of us seem to have similar ideas with the upcoming winter. The further north you are, the more interesting the winter could be. If you live in the south and are hoping for snow, I wouldn't rule it out but don't get your hopes up. Standard UK winter away from the far north. I was thinking autumnal February as well! Only a SSW may change my mind.

I did have that season in mind, but unless there's a SSW (which is very hard to predict this far out) I can see February 2023 more resembling February 2022. An autumnal month.

Based on previous years that have been similar to 2022's weather (along with continued La Niña), I think December will be close to or slightly below average temperatures, with the potential (but no guarantee) of some much colder weather for a time for northern UK. Further south both temperatures and rainfall close to the average. Any snow potential most likely in northern UK, though some wintry showers might arrive further south at times. Generally a chilly month with a higher than normal probability of frosts. Perhaps a greater than normal chance of fog or freezing fog also for a time. Chance of an interesting festive period in Scotland - and if so some notable overnight minima in the Highlands is possible. Very low chance of a very interesting New Year period for the UK as a whole in terms of winter weather. January again average temperature rise, but a higher chance of some wintry spells making it further south. Any particularly cold spells will be transient. Chance of snow for a time in central and some southern parts of the UK later in the month as the Atlantic tries to make more inroads and bumps into cold air doing so - but snow amounts from this nothing out of the ordinary. February - temperatures a little above average overall, perhaps chilly or cold early in the month. Any snow potential likely in northern parts, then milder for all with rain and some gales for a time. Perhaps drier later. Overall I would say prospects for especially cold and snowy weather are decent further north, especially in Scotland where it could be an interesting winter. Further south fairly standard fare, some transient colder spells but generally no major cold spells or particularly notable snow events likely. Precipitation, probably close to or just below average for the winter as a whole. Temperatures will be close to average across the UK as a whole, with milder interludes in the south and especially southwest (more so second half of winter), and much colder at times further north. Of course these are my early thoughts and could change later depending on other developments.

Think I mentioned this in a thread a few weeks back. 2022 being a similar year of weather to 1976 and 1995, but with a few notable rainfall events towards the end of summer, a very wet September, and both ended the year chilly/cold especially in the north. In the last week or so parts of southern and eastern England had two (localised) major rainfall events. September looks to start off on a very unsettled note, but too early to say how wet and for how long. Interesting looking ahead to the start of winter if the weather plays out similarly to late 1976/1995 - especially if the unsettled spell in early September does come off.

1976 and 1995 had similar weather to 2022 thus far, and both had a very wet start to Autumn, and an interesting December for winter weather, especially up north. If the grass outside is still yellow by the time the Autumn Equinox arrives, I will be very surprised.

I noticed a few people comparing the weather of this year with that of the years 1976 and 1995. It would be curious if we have a washout September (or maybe first half of Autumn) followed by drier weather by mid-October and average temperatures, and perhaps a quite wintry end to the year for northern UK in particular. In short, enjoy August's summer weather while it is here.

BBC currently have Wittering at 42c on Tuesday. Starting to wonder if 43c will actually happen like the crazy GFS models we had not so long ago suggested.