sukayuonsensnow

Tuesday 39.3C Doncaster

If only..... More likely by that stage of February it will likely be mild, wetter in the north, drier in the south. I would love to be wrong though.

Models can change back again, as they have continued to do. Surprises could still happen in the north in the few weeks. Midlands southwards hope for a miracle. Surprises could depend on the orientation/position of lows coming in via PM air, or evaporative cooling snow events. There's too much of a consensus on the longer range forecasts going out for the next few weeks to be ignored now in favour of other possibilities. There is still a consensus of a mild/very mild end of February from the longer range forecasts. Of course I could just be saying all this in the hope that the weather does the opposite to what I say. Maybe if cold lovers pray for rain and mild it will snow instead

Update: TWO, which have been on the money with their seasonal forecast so far this winter, have considerably backtracked on their February forecast in their latest 14 day forecast update: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/14-day-uk-weather-forecast I'd say there is a reasonable chance that away from high ground in northern parts that this winter is a bust now. Most/all long range forecasts are leaning towards the same outcomes for the next few weeks and if it is snow you want expect to be disappointed even with eye candy model runs here and there. It's a shame given how extensive the cold and snow cover was in E/NE Europe early in the season, it just headed to Greece/Turkey rather than us.

It's also good to note the geography of Turkey, especially the north. Take Istanbul for example. To its southwest is the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea (leading into the Mediterranean). To the northeast is the Black Sea. Istanbul is well away from the Atlantic and its influences are somewhat mitigated. The other side of the Black Sea is Russia. To the southeast of Turkey lies the Levant and Egypt, with a lot of dry weather and high pressure influence. This high pressure influence often slows the progression of low pressure from moving more east and south (but not always). If in the winter a cold northerly wind develops, that cold air comes straight down from Finland and west Russia, where temperatures can get as low as -10c/-20c, perhaps colder in some winters. The cold northerly wind crosses the warmer Black Sea, resulting in lake effect snow for northern Turkey. Much of Turkey is mountainous, so even if the air is slightly too mild on the coast at the lower levels it will be colder in the mountains. If a low develops in the Mediterranean Sea or comes down from the Balkans/W Europe, the warmer drier high pressure to the Eastern Mediterranean mitigates its progress. The cold air from the north combines with the warmer drier air from the southeast, amplifying the low pressure. The low pressure rotates, and with cold air from the north and northwest crossing over the warmer Sea of Marmara and Black Sea it reinvigorates the precipitation, resulting in significant rain/snowfall in the region. If the low becomes particularly intense along with the various factors and temperature contrasts involved, the precipitation becomes heavier, and evaporative cooling comes into the equation for those areas of the region affected by the low where the air is slightly too mild. In fact with all those factors it isn't surprising if a 'snownado' occurs. Northern Turkey are in a much better position to get lake/sea effect snow than we are. We need an easterly, straight from Siberia, with low pressure to our south over France/Iberia (as we learnt last year the Netherlands/Germany is too far East for that low). N/NW Japan is in the perfect position, as the wind travels west to east anyway and to their west is NE China, Mongolia and Siberia, which is very cold in Winter, often colder than E Europe is. Japan is also mountainous. Very cold W/NW winds over the warmer Sea of Japan, predominantly westerly winds. No wonder they get among the heaviest snowfall in the world (hence my username). If we want big snowfall in the UK then better hope the Earth starts rotating the other way so we get E/SE winds most of time. Although logically that wouldn't make sense anyway.

If only...... Although it falls perfectly into the 5-15th February bracket that I have mentioned a few times on here. This period is the most crucial of the winter and if nothing happens then then the winter is a bust, as most long range forecasts go for a mild/very mild end of Feb. It would also prove TheWeatherOutlook's seasonal forecast right, which it has been for the most part up until this point compared to other forecasters. Of course the cold spell may not necessarily come from the east or northeast so we need to manage expectations a little bit. Also even if we get a cold spell not everywhere will get snow. East, north and over high ground will always fare better.

Are you referring to the seasonal being wrong for UK? As of the time of writing I would say it has been pretty good so far. Most of the winter interest was always going to be in February, and for me at the beginning of the winter I set my expectations low for December and January. Take for example TWO's seasonal forecast: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast Their December forecast was pretty much correct including the Christmas/New Year period, most of the other longer range forecasts weren't sure and were going for a colder spell around the festive period. Even the MO kept changing their outlooks. January so far has been mostly correct, although I think it will end up being a slightly milder than average month due to the very start of the month (would be hard to forecast a record mild New Year a month in advance), and drier than average apart from a few localised spots in NW Scotland. The descriptions match up for the most part, and looks like we are going to lose some influence of high pressure towards the end of the month. I don't think the wintry showers in E/SE came off though. February is the interesting month. Starting off mild or rather mild with mixed weather - which looks a possibility going by the current models. Then a transition to a cold spell for a time with snow risk and severe frosts for southern and eastern parts. Less cold and wetter in the west. A mild or very mild end to the month, which most long range forecasts seem to be in agreement about for the end of February. There is potential for there to be a cold spell in the first week of February (week commencing 7th) although uncertainty on the transition, source, and how long it will last. It could be an easterly or northerly, but it could also be with PM air that a slider low approaches and brings snow to central, southern and eastern parts in that week, being rain further west and southwest (hence the less cold and wetter at times in the west). Depending on how deep the snow is this could lead to severe frosts for a time where the deepest snow falls from this event or events. With snow depths of 15-25cm locally and clear skies overnight a severe frost isn't out of the realms of possibility even with PM air. Even if this happens I doubt February will be a colder than average month, maybe average at coldest, and possibly above average temperatures depending on how cold it will be and how mild it will be at the end of the month. I also doubt any significant snow will occur for most in the Spring if the milder weather end of February continued. The only fly in the ointment for the seasonal forecasts was a leniency towards a potential SSW mid-late January, which probably won't happen. How that will affect the weather for the remainder of the winter is TBD.

The crazy part about it is that it wasn't forecast very well. The forecasters a day or two prior were saying 1-3cm in total from this snow event. I was at work and it was rain/sleet, but as the afternoon continued it turned to heavy thick snow and stayed that way until well into the night. Caught people by surprise. Had to close work early as customers/colleagues had to travel home by car and the roads weren't gritted ready for this surprise. At the same time if you were south of the A31 or north of the M4 barely anything from this (the heavier snow spell on the 1st I mean). It was literally from around the southern Cotswolds, Bristol/Bath and some northern parts of Somerset, Wiltshire, northern Hampshire/southern Berkshire, and the very NW of Surrey. It reminded me of the 21st December 2009 snowfall (although that was quite slushy snow), which was also poorly forecast. Parts of the Midlands (around Derbyshire) had a similar snowfall on the 24th January last year, although I think the heaviest snow was much more localised than the 1st February 2019 snow was. Snowfalls can still happen but in recent years are much more localised rather than a widespread general area of the UK (regardless of altitude). Last February's cold spell another example (in part due to the Beast from the East being just offshore on the east coast due to the low being over the Low Countries/Germany rather than it being in France). Some very localised spots on the east coast had a good amount of snow, however a few miles down the road barely anything. Certain parts of the UK are always going to struggle to see much snow due to various factors such as altitude and geography. For example some areas near the Bristol Channel around NW Somerset/N Devon and the northern coast of the SW UK are always going to struggle to see snow. Snow showers from the east will lose their strength once they hit Salisbury Plain/Cotswolds during an E cold spell. Snow showers from the north or northwest will lose their strength over the Welsh Mountains. Westerly winds are milder so more likely rain will fall out of the sky. The best chance here is a slider/channel low bringing snow north enough and in the right area. Isles of Scilly are also another area, due to being in the far SW and being less exposed to cold northerly or easterly winds than most of the UK. That said in some cold northerly spells (more likely with a Greenland High) a Pembrokeshire dangler can develop and bring snow showers to the far SW tip of Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly. In an easterly some southern parts of the SW corner of UK can be hit by snow showers from the English Channel that arrived after being pushed initially southwestwards from the SE of UK, then the winds change to E or ESE pushing them into Cornwall.

This Winter isn't over until it is over. Agreed I would take a week or two of crisp winter sunshine (not to mention the nice sunrises/sunsets) over relentless rain, wind and mild. I still consider 5-15 February the make or break period of this winter, and that is well in FI currently. 18-19 was redeemed for some southerners (me included) by that plentiful snowfall on 31 Jan-1st Feb. 6/7 inches of snow was more than enough to keep me happy and then early summer followed shortly after for those hoping for Spring. If that snow event was more widespread I'm sure many on here would take February 2019 again.

High pressure could well still be dominant in the SE half of the UK, more likely to be wet/mild further northwest. Cold interludes are possible, perhaps a chance of a cold spell but even this would be no longer than a week (and unlikely to be a nationwide event), and I expect some very mild days especially later in the month, more likely in the west but not exclusively. Temperatures will stay close to the average on the whole across more south/southeastern parts, but more variable across northern areas. Becoming very mild for all by the end of the month. Average to slightly above average rainfall in Scotland and Northern Ireland, average rainfall in Northern England and Wales. Drier than average in southern UK, especially Central Southern England, the London/Home Counties area and Kent/Essex. Even with a cold spell I think the month overall will be close to or slightly above average temperature wise, and close to average rainfall but with considerable regional variations. CET: 5.5 EWP: 60mm

I think if we get a cold spell it will be an easterly and may be most likely to affect more southeastern parts. Depends on the orientation of high pressure, and how much inroads low pressure makes into north/northwestern UK.

Lost all confidence in GFS after the Christmas/New Year period. GFS has performed especially poorly this season, and if anything the fact we aren't seeing winter nirvana charts on it currently may work in our favour later on. I personally see this as a positive sign, if GFS was showing a cold spell 3 weeks away chances are it won't happen. Something will creep up on us out of seemingly nowhere. I'd say anywhere southeast of a line between Weymouth and East Yarmouth should keep an eye on the forecasts towards the end of the month and early-mid February. Seeing too much uncertainty for these regions in the monthly/long range forecasts compared to elsewhere in the UK. Maybe others depending on how much of an influence low pressure has in NW UK.

Reading between the lines I'm going to hypothesise that the greatest chance of a cold spell with snow risk in the UK in the next month or so will probably be the further southeast you go, with Kent being the most likely part of the UK. (I could be wrong)

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/monthly Netweather's updated monthly forecast has been issued, it doesn't look very optimistic if it is cold/snow you are after. I do notice however that many longer range forecasts are leaning towards confidence over the weather staying wetter and potentially milder in northern UK, and more vague towards the south of UK and especially the southeast. There is one way we could get a cold spell out of this, but it would be quite localised. If high pressure was to move north/northwest just enough, and low pressure was able to move into Iberia/France/Central Europe, a E or NE wind *could* develop across southern and especially southeastern areas, in particular Kent. This may feed snow showers into these areas, perhaps longer spells of snow if low pressure moves north enough from Europe. This cold spell probably won't reach the Midlands north however, but it may be cold enough in Scotland as rain moves in to turn it to snow, especially but not exclusively over high ground. It could also stay dry in southwestern areas in this scenario. This spell would last no longer than a week. Of course I have no confidence in this scenario playing out, but just noticing from various long range forecasts that south/southeastern areas appear to have the most uncertain outlook going forward, and remembering TWO's seasonal forecast.

Netweather seasonal forecast did indicate a blocked pattern would become established for most of January and early February. Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2021/22 | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Not any mention of anything particularly snowy however. But greater chances of something colder late January/early-mid February. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast TWO also goes for a blocked period mid-late January but a transition for all to mild and unsettled by the end of January for a time, before setting up a more substantial cold spell in February after a mild and wet start. I think both of these have overestimated expected rainfall across the country for January however, unless there is an Atlantic breakthrough at the very end of January after all. Having no SSW may or may not throw a spanner in the works. TWO especially going for an above average rainfall January is probably going to be wrong in that sense. Even in TWO's January forecast they stick with above average rainfall: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/30-day-uk-weather-forecast Update: Netweather's monthly update isn't keen on anything in terms of substantial snowfall for the foreseeable: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/monthly But likely staying dry for much of the south and some eastern areas. Not too optimistic as far as the remainder of Winter is concerned.

Echoing a few others that the next best thing after snow is sunny and dry as far as January weather goes. Recent days, you really would struggle to find better weather for January, sunny and chilly but not too cold (if cold isn't your thing). Starting to keep an eye on trends now for later in the month. Looking dry for the southeast for the most part but watching to see if that stubborn area of high pressure over us moves a little more to the north or northwest. This would allow low pressure to move into Southern Europe, and an easterly or northeasterly wind to move into E/SE England straight from Siberia. This sets us up into February. I'm also trying to see signs of mild, unsettled weather, but I don't know if that will reach the southeastern half of the UK at this stage, looks predominantly dry here with temperatures close to the average. February is the month of interest for me, the seasonal forecasts have also indicated this as well. Just the details that are TBD.

February is make or break for this winter, guess we will have to wait and see......

Agreed! A very localised area between Bristol and Bagshot close to the A303/M3 got a pretty nice snowfall! It did promise more but instead we were having BBQs in February.......

Netweather and TheWeatherOutlook at this stage are going for a chilly or cold February. TheWeatherOutlook looks at a major cold spell during the first half of February, whereas Netweather is more vague. MetOffice in their long range have also recently suggested that in any colder interludes in early February of snow to quite low levels, though mostly likely in higher ground in the north. Guess it depends on how mild the start and end of February is, and how potent this cold spell is likely to be (if it happens). Probably the first weekend of February or the week commencing 7th Feb. TheWeatherOutlook have been on the money with their seasonal forecast so far, even despite the fantasy model runs we had recently and over the festive period.

Have a feeling if we get SSW end of January/beginning of February it may not work in our favour (if it is cold/snow you are after). But also something piqued my interest when I re-read the Netweather Seasonal Forecast. There was more of a leaning towards northern blocking in the second half of the winter, and a weakening SPV, but with uncertainty regarding when or if a SSW occurs. Could the timing of a SSW be crucial for our Winter prospects? ie. the sooner we get one the more likely it could work in our favour. There is also the La Nina side of things, with it becoming more east-based and leading to a more likely chance of being colder second half of the winter. Either way it will be an interesting few weeks on this thread. SSW doesn't necessarily mean cold, snowy weather, could mean the opposite.

Do we need a SSW for a cold spell? We are still in an interesting position synoptics wise. Also if things start to become favourable, would a SSW late January or February undo that and give us something much milder?

Just had a glance over the stratosphere thread. I think the million dollar question is this. Can we get a notable cold spell this winter without a SSW happening? Or more curiously, could a SSW do more harm than good to our synoptics? (ie. it would bring the very mild end to February that is suggested by the seasonal forecasts) The northern hemisphere is still in an interesting situation and there is the second half of the winter to go.

Again there is uncertainty on the timing and transitions into the cold spell and out of it. TWO seasonal forecast here: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast (Been right so far, including the Xmas/New Year period, and looks like it will continue to be right for the next couple weeks at least) Netweather seasonal forecast here: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal (Been close at certain points, but also toyed with ideas that the models have ended up picking up, like the potential with the Xmas/New Year period. It also suggested an increasing chance of blocking mid to late January with potential for a cold spell, whether this just means high pressure and a few wintry showers remains to be seen. Indications of a colder end of January whereas TWO goes for a mild, unsettled spell end of January/beginning of February.) Both suggest much of the first half of February will be cold and often dry, though TWO highlights a more substantial snow risk and subsequent severe frosts for eastern and possibly southern UK for a time. Both indicate a very mild end to February. Despite this TWO are saying colder than average for February, so the cold spell would have to be quite potent (probably a BFTE) to make the month colder than average despite the rather mild start and end to the month. So far TWO has been a little closer than Netweather, but both have done well on these. Netweather less keen on snow risk, but does have more leniency towards a blocked pattern and perhaps being colder than average for a longer period. In summary, remainder of winter: Netweather: More encouragement towards blocked, cold periods with high pressure close by, but whether that means snow remains to be seen..... TWO: Similar, but more likely to have mild, unsettled periods especially towards the end of January/beginning of February, and then a more significant cold spell for a week or so after. Interestingly the Met Office recently have also been upgrading their long range forecast to favour the February potential. The wording is more leaning towards TWO.

The seasonal forecasts all lean towards an interesting February at least. 1-5 Feb Unsettled and mild 5-15 Feb Low pressure gives way to cold E/NE bringing cold weather and some significant snow for some (Not necessarily all) Uncertainty on the timing but somewhere around 5-7 Feb the transition takes place 16-28 Feb Turns less cold/mild from the southwest, perhaps preceded by snow as the rain bumps into cold air. Turns very mild or potentially warm by end of month, as seems to be tradition in recent Februarys, a very cold/very mild end to month.

5th-15th February is the make or break of this winter. And right on cue from Met Office........