snowray

Well once again the GFS, and Met Office too have been too low with their temp forecasts for today going for only 15-17c a couple of days ago. As I expected we are way higher with wall to wall sunshine and temps widely 18-20c all the way up to Yorkshire. So can we get up to 23c tomorrow then, I think so, 24c not so likely but maybe somewhere in the East/Southeast will get close.

I still think that they are underestimating temps for both Saturday and Sunday by 2-3c, in the SE and EA anyway.

ECM rock solid with its output at T144 continuing the trend from its 00 run. UKMO keeping up with events. GFS doing its own thing again. UKMO seems to be the halfway house there.

So 3rd warmest March it is then.

Darkcloud. I was thinking the same thing about this D10 business, I know that its to far out for any accurate forecasting purposes but the charts have shown colder/wintry weather, particularly from GFS, so many times at around D10 and then they are just dropped. There has even been virtually full agreement on the ensembles at times too, we saw this also with the ECM around mid winter, and yet there has not even been a trend to colder weather, they have all been wrong, wrong, wrong, never any upgrades for cold, and we at best have ended up with the dregs of any cold shot. Anyway, lets enjoy the good weather later this week, Sunday still looking very mild, the cloud thats coming in may spoil things though further west. GFS probably underestimating temps again there.

On Sunday it could get quite humid as cloud moves in from the west, it might not cloud over until late in the day if we are lucky of course but east looks best for some temps to reach the low 20s in any sunshine.

Yes Saturday should be a scorcher I'd say, 19, 20, 21c very likely. The Midlands, South, E Anglia might do best of all, similar to last Thursday.

You beat me to it, was about to post them charts, very mild indeed. Scandi high and the prospect of anything colder now at D10+. The Murr will no doubt have gone back to his Summer hibernation.

Chalk and cheese compared to the 06z from D7/8 onwards, spot the difference at D10.

We can't complain though, its been lovely in March and at least another week of decent weather is on the cards with it should turning pleasantly mild again later next week. But we should not be surprised to see at least one last cold spell in April.

Yes but it will feel a lot colder everywhere, I mean we have been used to temps of 15-22c recently so even high single digits and cold nights would be quite a shock. Probably just a temporary blip of course, and I don't suppose that anyone is expecting anything severe away from possibly Northern hills/mountains, but Welsh hills and places like Dartmoor could certainly still get snow on a cold and unstable north/northwesterly regime.

Well thats it then, I was thinking to myself just that, is Mr Murr starting to take an interest? bad omen if your a mildy and expecting another very mild month that. Ensembles for London and Leeds, pretty well good agreement for a settled week coming up with close to average early April temps, turning a bit milder for a while then a lot colder from around the 10th. Some juicy charts for coldies in there, if only it was a few months ago.

But worth remembering none the less that we can still get cold northerlies, and also snow and ice in April. I know that it all seems so long ago now, but when it happens it will no doubt take us all by surprise.

I make you right there, and its at D10 as per usual of course.

GEM going for a Northerly blast by the look of things, out to T192.

Yes your quite right about that Eugene, I was looking at some of the lowest temps recorded in past Aprils and they were mainly in Scotland but not exclusively, and they were not necessarily recorded in early march as one might expect. An example of this is Garforth W Yorkshire recording a -12.8c on 24th April 1908. April can be a funny sort of month, and I have suspected for some time that we might get an arctic blast sometime mid month. Although If it don't happen all the better as far as I am concerned, as Karl said it should have happened a couple of months back. Anyway all eyes on the 12z, will it be a mild and sunny or white Easter? Could be a bit of interesting model watching coming up.

Country wide heavy snowfall there. Funny how its always around D10 though.

Here we go, pub run is teasing the coldies again.

Just a stab in the dark this time from me, I think I might try colder. 7.9c please.

Indeed, Easter is still a long way off, so although the trend appears to be showing a colder and more unsettled period of weather, both on the GFS and ECM, it could certainly all still change and probably will. I wonder what the 00z runs will come up with, probably show something completely different in another 12 hours time.

ECM moving towards the GFS idea of things turning colder now, chances of a colder Easter have suddenly gone up a lot, 20% chance of a white Easter for parts of the country now a 30% chance. Skiing in the Cairngorms on Good Friday looking like a 50/50, or an even money punt.

Exceptionally dry period coming up but trending a lot colder and unsettled for the Easter break. London and Manchester ensembles.

Iv'e seen single digits and rain in June CS!

Well I'm hoping that the mild runs verify because any half baked cold blast like the halfway house between ECM and the colder GFS runs in April will just be miserable after all this lovely weather, and with the prospect of more of the same and even better to come its just too mouth watering, I got a taste for it yesterday I'm afraid. So I will stick to being a mildy, for now anyway.

Thanks for that, the east of the country is not represented at all then. I wonder what the square one is all about on the netweather UK temperature tracker (CET) page all about, must be doing its own thing. 16c widely now in the CET zone so number 3 here we come.