sunny_vale

This is science not religion. It's not about forcing an opinion on someone, it's literally the denial of facts if you're 'choosing' to not believe in climate change.

Today is certainly nice enough. But this is what I would call 'threshold bare minimum' as to what I'd look for out of high summer weather. Days like yesterday I can appreciate (even enjoy) in summer but in isolation, if surrounded by much nicer days to compensate. Feeling a bit more hopeful we might start to see a general improving trend towards the end of next week. I'm generally not too hard to please, so to say this July has been a disappointment says a lot (although was away from the 2nd to the 11th so missed what was apparently an alright spell of weather including an almost 30c day).

17.3C and 44mm please perhaps we will see things settling down and warming up compared to now, with a mini notable heatwave at some point around the middle of the month (total guess of course). Nothing out of this world, but a decent summer month.

It hasn't been too bad here this week (last weekend was ok too if rather brisk!). But looking at the forecast for the next week or so is where the disappointment really kicks in. Hopefully we still get some nicer days thrown in between the cool and damp ones. It's certainly a case of enjoy what glimmers of warmth and sun you have when you have it, and have faith that it will improve again, just as it did in May.

I was away in Albania and Athens for a couple of weeks, just got back Tuesday night. It really does feel like coming back to a different season, as the 1st of July was great and managed to enjoy pride in the sun in London. Tomorrow's gale force winds are not making me happy Just as I'd thought I'd gotten rid of the vitamin d deficiency . . . But no let's hope talk of a sandwich summer has some bearing. At least there's some drier and partly sunny days on the horizon.

One thing I'll say is that it's more about the rate of change than the actual change itself. Species do not have chance to adapt or migrate as they did before (including humans), hence the threat of mass extinctions and global food shortages/droughts etc.

A muggy 17.7C and 70mm for me please

Here to report from Glastonbury that I woke up to a flooded tent this morning so yes the rain can do one until October 25th I think. Apart from that mostly pleasant weather for 16 hour outdoor shifts looking forward to my 4:30 start tomorrow. May as well stay up and see it as a paid solstice experience. Still can’t tell how the weather pans out this weekend as looking good for some heat and sun but there have been some last minute shifts recently. Fingers crossed, I am hopeful though!

I'm heading down tomorrow! Looks good for set up. First day of work on Sunday might be somewhat refreshing, but mixed to good thereafter. Absolutely baked last year until the festival itself which was dry but fresh. Looking forward to a few acts this year but the majority I can actually see out of working hours will be casual viewing - which tends to pleasantly surprise me!

It does feel like the hiatus is perhaps coming to a close you’re right. Still seeing some very ‘summer for everyone’ charts though so hopefully the pattern switches (if and when it does) in such a way that the natural summer time ebbings and flowings of high pressure northwards and southwards can encapsulate everyone.

For southern areas at least the consensus seems to be there for a rise in pressure after Tuesday/Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what the next few runs show beyond this. From a southern perspective, I haven't seen any runs that particularly concern me and many do see some heat coming in more towards the SE, especially on the GEM. Even then the ECM still doesn't properly bring the low to the NW until T240. Nonetheless, there is certainly a trend for low pressure to be affecting North Western areas a bit more and the GFS develops a more westerly flow (traditional N/S split as alluded to I guess). Let's hope this reverts and we see the high pressure from the south asserting itself all the way north again - rather than this trend spreading further and further south as we approach . . .

Models all keen still to rebuild high pressure from the South around Wednesday next week it seems. There is a level of consistency and agreement with that now. Some really hot looking charts from ECM and GFS after that. I've noticed the development of a feisty(ish) looking low out West around next weekend on a couple of runs now too. This is shown in varying positions and intensities, but definitely picking up something there. Could act as a real heat pump if it's kept at bay! One to watch I think . . .

It's funny, I used to be quite rigid in my perception of the seasons. As soon as it hit September I was in Autumn mode and wanted to be in a cosy jumper at all times. Now, I don't feel the late summer vibe until at least after the August bank holiday weekend and feel like September itself right through to beyond the equinox is late summer (I suppose some would consider that to be the case anyway). I do enjoy this part of summer 'pre-solstice' and totally get the feeling of everything is ahead of us. There's something special about it not getting properly dark for a while.

So far this June has definitely beaten 2018 here. If it continues it really will be something. Apart from the fact 2018 recorded 0.51mm rainfall, so far this year has been warmer and I would hazard a guess at sunnier too. As some have alluded to, the possibility of warmest June since 1976 if not warmer is a real possibility should the heat kick back in after the start of next week.

Mild consensus this morning with the GFS, ECM and GEM bringing in that blobby low pressure during Sunday. W/SW baring the brunt of it at first before it dissipates and high pressure builds in from the South. GFS and GEM have this on Wednesday, ECM has the proper ridging a bit later on. Warm, wet and humid probably sums it up for most Sunday to Tuesday, before a return to some hotter, drier and sunnier conditions midweek onwards, starting off in the south, eventually affecting northern areas too. UKMO hints at the same evolution too, up to Wednesday.

Heading to Glastonbury this Saturday and looks like I chose the right day to be setting up at least Could be working in a lot of rain on Sunday. Definitely coinciding with the SW getting the brunt of any unsettled weather, but hopefully it will be more of a sunshine and showers regime which I actually could find quite pleasant in such green pastures. Hopefully it'll become dry warm and sunny over that way again by the time the festival itself kicks off!

I'm surprised they haven't declared a bank holiday yet - the June 13th Enigma has been broken!!!

Ah I see! Will keep that one in mind. Love a well-kept secret. What's that referring to can I check?

Would have thought the notorious white cliffs might bring a few more people that way!

Do the models take into consideration any background warming associated with CC, which might add a degree or 2 to temperatures on the day vs synoptical predictions? (Might be a stupid question but always wondered). For me that's why I see we get the 'undercooking' of temperatures at times so to speak. Also, I suppose that wouldn't explain the accuracy of last year either.

Definitely uncertainty from that point (to be expected at that range). As someone said, Monday appears to be somewhat of a checkpoint whereby the models can't quite tell what's happening thereafter.

From what I can see, there is a brief unsettled interlude around the start of next week, but higher pressure builds in quite readily from Wednesday. I agree, no immediate signs of a significant or long-lasting pattern change. Certainly, no barrelling Atlantic depressions to speak of.

Knife-edge stuff that. I can see it coming out at 29.9 somewhere, October 2011 style!

Alas, the skies did part and deliver rain. Flash of lightning too! smells like the palm house at Kew out there