sunny_vale
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Everything posted by sunny_vale
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I understand the 'jam tomorrow' feeling. I have to say though that there hasn't been such continued consensus for an improvement even in the medium term for a very long time. Often these spells do get pushed back a bit until they arrive 2 or 3 days after the initial signals suggested. Nothing set in stone by any means but I'm a lot more hopeful than I have been at all this year that things will start to improve significantly by early next week.
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Wasn't expecting today to be dry here let alone for the sun to come out. Staying with family in the forest of Dean and went for a walk this morning - couldn't stop walking because of how pleasant it was! Bring on something more seasonal this week (hopefully)
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
sunny_vale replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 00z brings us a mixed but warmish week, better in the East. Then Sunday low pressure attempts to engulf the UK but is pushed back by a series of rebuilding high pressure (FI). ECM 00z similar to the end of the week, then high pressure starts to nudge in over the weekend with flabby high pressure spreading out over the UK from then onwards. -
MP-R yes agreed! 2022 I thought was a good spring overall, even with the mixed May which didn't feel as dull to me as the stats suggest.
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SummerShower that's really is it isn't it. I think we were spoiled in springs in the 00s and 10s, almost becoming better than many summers, until 2020. I wonder when we will get out of this pattern again. Agree on the 2016, but 2017 I recall was a pretty good spring overall, especially the April. Although I was away from mid March to mid June so it's anecdotal and looking through the data rather than personal experience!
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*Stormforce~beka* I have a feeling that won't verify luckily/unluckily depending on where you are haha
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Spring is usually such an exciting time because although I'd never expect wall-to-wall sunshine and consistently high temperatures, I do start to anticipate the upcoming summer and there's often enough decent weather to inspire it. I think that's what we've been robbed of this year and last (2021 to an extent too). Mind, if we do have a nice week after all next week then it wouldn't be too late. It's just the feeling of the window of opportunity closing up in front of our very eyes that makes poor springs so dismal.
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May 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
sunny_vale replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
13C and 75mm please. Mild wet start, cooler drier middle, hot thundery finish. -
WYorksWeather That's true in terms of heat for sure. Maybe one year, can't see it being this one sadly
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WYorksWeather I'd argue that was the case in 2018. In fact the heat started in mid April and we had consistent warmth right the way through to middle part of October, bar a small blip at the end of April (down here anyway). Now that's a year I would bank!
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B87 looks like a big problem is even the months with surplus sun also had surplus rainfall, and the big 2 (July and August) were both low on sun and high on rain. There’s been no real respite even in the supposedly better months we had. And yeah this year is somehow worse so far because we haven’t even had February to help (completely misplaced dry month anyway)! I’m usually such an optimist so seeing that backs up my currently opposing sentiments hahaha
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Been in Cornwall since Monday and have to say while not particularly warm or walk to wall sunshine I have managed to get some colour on my skin. It’s felt pleasant enough and quite spring like so I definitely caught the right week to come. All down hill tomorrow though . . . As for the outlook - depressing. Utterly depressing. I’ve been broken. I thought that couple of warm days at the weekend might save me and it’s not been as dull as before but here we go again!!
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Absolutely lovely day. Casting my mind back to this time last year and we're in a much better position I'd say. It really does just take those few days at or around 20C to make the difference overall. I'll be semi-content for another week or so after today and tomorrow with it being largely dry still. Looks like next weekend may deliver another nice warm spell (too early to be confident of course), but weekends are faring better for once.
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SunSean yeah I take back my comment about sun hahaha
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Almost fascinating weather today. Can’t think of any other time there has been such a combination of warm, sunny, and windy, let alone at this time of year! Has a late summer feel outside on my balcony this morning.
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I can’t help feel we’ve switched from forecasts predicting a best case scenario to now predicting a worst case scenario i.e. the weather is coming out better than it looked. Maybe this is some sort of a turning point in our fortunes? Either way as far as March BH weekends go, it’s been pretty sunny and felt very spring like. This week will be a struggle if it’s as grey, wet and windy as it looks, but wouldn’t be surprised if we tap into some brief warmth by the weekend - if a little brisk! The thing is it’s not been cold so when we do get any dry/brightness it’s actually alright.
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April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
sunny_vale replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
10.6c and 90mm please -
Hands down the sunniest day since January. There’s been blue since dawn even with varying cloud levels. Might have even got my first little bit of colour can ye imagine!
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Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless
sunny_vale replied to SunSean's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
*Stormforce~beka* Thank you! Hugs to you too, we all need it at the mo I feel although today was pretty nice until the evening. It's not cold which is definitely one thing, and there are signs of it becoming drier, brighter and calmer next week. We shall see! -
Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless
sunny_vale replied to SunSean's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It really is getting hard to bare now isn't it. Even the warmer 'drier' days look windy and sunless. 17c in March should be something to look forward to but I can't see it feeling very springlike Late Feb/March is the time I need some sun the most - expectations aren't even that high, just some calm, bright weather to feel like the season is changing (tbf Saturday was kind of like that here). I think that's why it feels so much worse, especially when it's the second year in a row with these conditions. You know it's bad when even I'm having a right old moan. -
March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
sunny_vale replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
(Late entry apologies) I'll go for 7.8C and 54mm please -
SunSean my thoughts exactly! Makes no sense. How do we get this on the government agenda?