sunny_vale
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Everything posted by sunny_vale
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Do the models take into consideration any background warming associated with CC, which might add a degree or 2 to temperatures on the day vs synoptical predictions? (Might be a stupid question but always wondered). For me that's why I see we get the 'undercooking' of temperatures at times so to speak. Also, I suppose that wouldn't explain the accuracy of last year either.
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
sunny_vale replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definitely uncertainty from that point (to be expected at that range). As someone said, Monday appears to be somewhat of a checkpoint whereby the models can't quite tell what's happening thereafter. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
sunny_vale replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
From what I can see, there is a brief unsettled interlude around the start of next week, but higher pressure builds in quite readily from Wednesday. I agree, no immediate signs of a significant or long-lasting pattern change. Certainly, no barrelling Atlantic depressions to speak of. -
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Knife-edge stuff that. I can see it coming out at 29.9 somewhere, October 2011 style!
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Alas, the skies did part and deliver rain. Flash of lightning too! smells like the palm house at Kew out there
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Definitely science.
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That's a bit of a distortion of the truth. You're correct in saying that the Earth's climate changes in cycles. This is over thousands of years though, not such extreme shifts within decades as currently being experienced.
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Oh well then, even more of a margin!
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31.2 at Heathrow beating the previous 31.1 at Cambridge in 1900 I believe. Ah that one makes sense!
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There's potential then. Would that be a record for number of simultaneous date records . . . ? (Am I a bit obsessed with records?)
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Would be the 3rd day in a row with a date record!
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Cloud overhead now, seems thick and slow moving. Would love to see a thunderstorm. Give everything a nice quick refresh before we go back to wall to wall blue skies and heat
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Maybe we'll get a reading from a legitimate station at some point too . . .
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Crazy the contrasts today. Feels hotter here than yesterday! Much more humid feel too with some cumulus and stratus in the distance.
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Any idea what the earliest 32C was and when the last time one was recorded this early on?
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It did indeed. Long may it continue (although I do hope we can ALL enjoy some heat).
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Yeah I do know what you mean, especially when it's such a sudden jump!
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I think as it's been so dry too and far from cold in most places, that must help to quicken the heater up.
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enjoy!
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Just seen 30.3C at Heathrow at 13:00. Natural order resumes hahaha
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What an absolute peach this month is turning out to be. Feels like being on a city break waking up to clear blue skies, a hot light breeze and that dry smell in the air. Didn't need a jacket even coming home at 4am! It's here. We've made it. I'm emotional.
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That would make sense actually.
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Think we'll have our first 25C in London today! They all reflect the area they are in I'd say. The distance between the stations can have a marked affect sometimes, in particular with sunshine levels. But yes, if you want to know specifically the weather/climate of central London, then St James Park is your best bet.
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In terms of temperature measuring validity it is negligible as the station is not located on the asphalt, rather an area of grass a bit North of the runways. I don't think it would help or hinder activists to use data specifically from Heathrow in terms of comparative difference to the past - unless you're not referring to climate change activism?
