sunny_vale

It can be quite easy to look beyond what is right in front of us when the forecast is so uncertain and constantly changing, especially when there is more of a need for good weather like after the March and April we've had. But this coming weekend looks genuinely summery for many. Let's enjoy that and see where we go from there. No doubt the models will be showing something different to what they are now, and there do seem to be improvements moving forward. Let's hope that's a trend.

Call me crazy but this May has been ok to me. Since the last weekend in April, I've seen just about enough sun, a couple of rainy days, some sunshine and showers days and Sunday was great. It's not felt cold at all either really. And this coming weekend is starting to look good too. Probably IMBYism and personal standards involved though. Of course, I'm searching for some heat and extended periods of warm and sunny weather, but I do believe that will come at some point before the month is out - it rarely doesn't in May, even 2021 had that lovely ending.

Personally the only summer I would class as poor since 2012 would be 2021, and even that fared slightly better overall than most of the 07-12 years (bar 09 and 10, which I actually thought were decent). Of course there were some dire periods i.e June 2016, late July/early August 2017 and the end of August 2015, but they're the only notably bad periods I can recall.

It feels like at the least the cold has gone here since Saturday. Actually SMELLS like Spring now which is very noticable. It's made me realise how stretched out nature has been here this Spring as usually it's the start of April I get those sensations. Nice warm freshness in the air, with a fair amount of sun too. Tomorrow looks lovely and Thursday too now. Friday onwards looks mixed for sure . . . but I see nothing too cold coming our way. Sunshine, showers and cloudier spells with temperatures in the high teens. Certainly could be worse but I wouldn't mind some proper warmth at this point. What does 20C feel like again?? I can't quite remember . . .

I hear that. Hopefully there will be some sun tomorrow.

Dare I say tomorrow looks like a nice day for London. Finally!

It does finally look like we might squeeze in a 20C down this way before the month is over. That will to a degree make up for things IMO, especially being on the first BH weekend of the upcoming series. Looking like there is a lot more high pressure in the models too for the next week or so at least. Temperatures in the forecast of 14-16C with blue skies can easily achieve a degree or two higher at this time of year, so I'm hopeful! April has definitely been better than March (not hard), and perhaps May will continue this gradual overall improvement as we head towards the summer. If it does, then it wouldn't be a bad month.

Let's go for 12.6C and 54mm

Yeah 2011 was a funny one. The year as a whole could be considered good because of the spring and autumn but the summer was on the poor side - not without its moments too though.

It really was something else. Beating that feels impossible, but you never know in this climate . . .

I was thinking about something kind of similar to this actually, watch this space . . . January: 2013, was a great snow event and generally cold month. Perfect way to round off those glory day winters of my earlier years. February: 2019, started off with some snow and then progressed into spring with temperatures in the 20s. March: 2012, remember thinking how shocked I was that March could produce such consistently warm and sunny weather. April: 2011, 2020 was great but I think as it's more recent and got many through the days of lockdown it stands out more. But April 2011 was truly a summer month I would happily swap with many Julys. May: 2020, that constant sun and warmth is something I can only dream of right now! June: 2017, I would have probably picked 2018 but here the heatwave at the end of the month was more impressive temperature wise and 2018 takes the stand elsewhere. July: 2018, 2022 would have done it for me for the record breaking temperature, but again 2022 takes the stand elsewhere. Also July 2018 was more consistent with it's warmth and sun I think rather than heat spikey? August: 2022, absolutely glorious month from start to finish. September: 2016, this month helped to make up for the poor start to that summer. The true definition of a 'late summer' after a great August that year too. October: 2021, certainly not my favourite October but all the other years have been taken and 2021 was alright. November: 2014, at this point of the year I'm not looking for any particular type of weather - it'll all do. 2014 did provide a bit of everything and I don't have much choice from the remaining years December: 2015, the only year remaining and although I do prefer a cold, frosty and snowy Christmas period, it was a record breaker and didn't have to layer up going out too much which is always nice. I would have chosen 2022 . . .

Tentative signs of a change of wind direction from the middle of next week as that low out to the west expands out towards us. GFS ends quite warm on the 00z but obviously very much in FI. Until then, it looks like a very strange set up with the UK sandwiched between two LP systems to the NE and SW. The Northerly affects everyone Monday to Wednesday. All set to feel pretty cold for this stage in April, but that might not last too long.

I agree. I always think of 'typical' weather ranges for the time of year rather than 'the average is 16C for example so anything other than that is not expected' So mid-April in London, I'd say Tmax generally would be between 11-19 and anything out of that range is an 'extreme' (not in the rare or record-breaking sense, of course).

Well 2013 yes I do remember that taking it's time, although even that April had a nice few days of temps above 20C and a few others over 18 too, so in that sense this year is taking longer for me. 1996 I don't remember personally but I have seen that was pretty slow too. Both produced good summers so fingers crossed haha

One thing I always try to remember is that when the weather isn't giving for a while it can seem like it never will, but often it DOES turn around sooner or later. Imagine yourself in May 2013 or June 2016, the cold (2013) or the constant unsettled weather (2016) felt relentless, but in the end it turned out ok. I can't remember a spring that took so long to get going, so I'm bargaining on the balancing out of nature to set us up with a 2018 redux . . . Even years that aren't exceptional deliver good weather for most from May to September at at least a few points, so our time will come and we'll forget all about this

I agree, there was certainly more of a spring-like feel to things overall. I think coming after this March makes things feel worse though. The month itself hasn't been too bad for the first half of April, but it's the lack of sustained sunny and warm (even pleasant) weather in the forecast that is accentuating any gloomy days I'd say.

How did I miss off 2012! and tbf I rounded the 19.6 in 2014

Since I was born in 1997, only 2000, 2006 and 2016 and 2021 have not achieved 20C at my local station where I grew up (Heathrow airport). Most years have had at least a few days +20C so it is certainly a disappointment to not see it (still time yet this year of course), especially after Aprils like 2007, 2011 and 2020 (I might include 2003 and 2018 in there too for their bursts of heat).

After tomorrow it does look like we'll have a few nice days at least. Sunny spells and temperatures in the mid teens will feel pleasant enough so long as the breeze doesn't pick up too much. And hopefully the models start showing what they were a few days ago again . . . ?

I'd hope the ECM is more on the money this morning. General agreement up to around Wednesday with high pressure focusing towards the North of the UK which keeps us dry and fairly sunny with reasonable temps. Thereafter GFS takes us into Noman's land (could be worse I suppose, at least there's no intense lows over the UK like were showing yesterday) and ECM keeps the high over to the NE with a slightly more SE flow developing for a time before it rebuilds the high over the UK towards day 10.

I can imagine you'll need it all the more then! It was very pleasant indeed last weekend. More of that please

Looking like somewhere in the North of Scotland might be the first past the post for 20C this year maybe Monday or Tuesday. I often find it's the areas you wouldn't expect that fare like this in spring. BBC has 19C and sunny forecast for both days for Inverness. Metoffice only saying 17C. Still all to play for . . .

I'm usually quite an optimist, especially living in the warmer and sunnier SE, but seeing next week's downgrades to chillier and less sunny, things are getting a bit tedious now . . . I did enjoy the bank holiday weekend and managed to get myself a tan in fact, but the thing getting me through this week was the promise of warmer times to come next week. At least it's not looking freezing and certainly no washout but I'm crossing all my fingers and toes we can head towards 20c by next weekend at least!

It does look like consensus is growing for a build of high pressure some time around the end of next week. Still a bit far out and we do have that serious looking storm to contend with first. Let's hope this is the last of those for a while. The way the GFS builds that pressure on the latest run is almost eye watering but still FI of course.

I'm with you there! Looks like we have 3 nice sunny and warm enough days coming up this bank holiday weekend so at least there's that. The unsettled spell next week doesn't look like it will linger on like the March gloom did either. I'd say there's reason to be optimistic overall