CoventryWeather

bluearmy Understandable, but what the ECM showed just shows that solution still not out the question. What, about 100miles further south from the morning run - big adjustments in a short time frame. Could be a trend or just a weird one off run.. There are ensembles on all the models that show a risk of it much further south - of course it's nothing until one of the ops show it. Anyways the GFS isn't interested in the ECM solution so outlier for now. Let's see what the morning does.

Mogreps 12z

Another model that is keen on the southern track of next week's low - the Arpege. And I think people towards the south might be happier with this one.

Another trend south - this time the ECM. Slightly more wedgy earlier on, making the low more shallow and further south. I'm still expecting a further shift south, even if many are expecting the northwards trend to continue. I think anyone north of Birmingham should monitor this feature.

nick sussex still no real consistent runs of a wedge though - several ensembles still hinting but means nothing unless one of the ops take the trend on.

I still don't think next week's events have been settled yet. Sure a trend north but some of the shorter range forecasts (Arpege and the WRF examples) both show a shallow low further south.. I would say these have a greater chance of getting the final solution right. Away from that plenty to watch. This has always been the main interest and currently there's significant interest in building fairly strong heights to the north. Late Feb looking particularly interesting!

MJB there's still no strong Iberian high, that is a great chart for day 10. Likely to continue with development of an Easterly of some sort with disruption of lows south. Follows what is expected towards mid month.

Kasim Awan still leads to a cold outlook in the extended though? Anyways I'm not going to cause any arguments but to my view mid month there's likely to be excess blocking to the north. Perhaps still heights to the south but most likely weak. To me they don't suggest strong heights - strong represents 1030/1035 to me, similar to this week. Centre over the bay of Biscay.

@Kasim AwanI'm a bit confused to be honest with you, this upcoming period hasn't been the main period of interest. Might be a few sliding lows producing snowfall on the northern edge but main interest is past mid month, where there is pretty significant support for an Easterly with a block between Scandi and Greenland. No real support for any significant heights over Iberia so not sure what you're looking at.

Agreed no model consistency. Models don't have a clue...

ICON had the slightest of movements towards the GFS in it's early stages but ends with this chart at 120..

Another shift south from the Icon and GFS. Expecting the euros to do the same in the morning.. Also the ECM ensembles show very strong support just past mid month for blocking between Scandi and Greenland.

I'm still expecting a southwards trend in any sliding lows later next week. Some models are keen on developing a wedge to the NW - again there are various strengths to this and models often underestimate these. This in turn favours a southern low like the GEM or GFS rather than the euros, but it's a case of watching. I doubt this will be settled for another few days, perhaps as late as Wednesday. Wouldn't worry too much about the poor runs, as this is likely a starter compared to what the ECM46 is showing second half of Feb.

Lukesluckybunch if we have a short lived snowy spell then a weak wedge that moves NE to Scandi, I think most people would take that TBF..

Not a bad chart for mid Feb.

The GFS06z also looks towards Scandi, similar to the GEM, although it's not really clean with it. Bit messy over Europe at day 10 but way out in FI. Still uncertain on how much the low disrupts next week. But again a clear trend south on the GFS.

Models really struggling with the disruption of the trough in the Atlantic early next week. ICON and GEM definitely the best outputs this morning, but it's going to be a fair few days until modelling has got the low in the Atlantic right.

Putting the prediction in now - that low will continue to move south over the coming days.. Mid week slider feature has seen a trend south today - wouldn't be surprised to see the later low shift south too. Somewhere could get quite the snow event next week. Interesting times ahead.

UKMO is a beauty at 144. Cold air right through the UK to the south coast. GFS backtracking again after what it seemed to be the one who picked the trend up (unless you allow the ECM to take that bit).

Metwatch said the exact same thing earlier, more as a question on will it! Even next week's slider through Scotland/Northern England could pass further south, often models underestimate how far south the cold air gets as the Greenland high strengthens when time goes on.

Perhaps to note (and also to be corrected by professionals if needed) - the sliders that could hit next week, as they are modelled in Scotland at the moment, is there the chance it continues to be pushed south as it gets closer, or is that only when a cold spell is getting expanded rather than right at the start of one? Hope that makes some sort of sense. Anyways, the models definitely improving, seems a wedge is most likely but gives us a much greater chance of seeing some more widespread snowfall from sliders.

UKMO Vs GFS Vs ICON at 144. Some differences over the arctic and how strong the Azores ridge is. GFS is sort of a middle ground solution at this range, but closer to the UKMO.

ICON looks v good at 180. GFS looks poor at 144 but let's see if it improves.

@Mike Poole Great clusters then, I'll delete my post about them just above - developing signs that mid to late Feb could perhaps be quite decent. Perhaps an Easterly is possible then...

Been a trend over the last 24 hours to see some disruption in the Atlantic troughs around days 6-8, clearly seen across most models this morning bar ICON and GEM.. still various uncertainties early on, but I'd take wedges and sliders over a 2-3 day dry cold spell. Also add to equation that the models perhaps over-playing the Atlantic towards day 10. But anything cold before mid Feb always a bonus I think..