CoventryWeather

Mike Poole so that small shortwave pulls the whole low northwards? For me that just defies physics. Unless there's a kink in the jet stream that moves it north.. I suspect its model bias.

Think after Thursdays event I'll be calling winter over. Give us an early summer for once instead of a delayed winter in April for Easter. Starting to already see a few runs with quite warm uppers in France and Spain towards the end of the runs so hopefully won't take much to force them this way as we start to approach March.

Ali1977 tbh it was one of the further north models with the GFS. None of the models have been consistent today at 48 hours. Stop looking at day 5-10, cause that's rapidly changing due to the low on Thursday.

andy_leics22 Arpege Has that moved south again? It was a fair way south on the 6z.

Spah1 Not really ranting just stating I want the southwards shift to continue. Definitely a trend south, by 20 miles or so. Still a fair few runs until models get the hang on it, so I wouldn't rule out the south midlands for now. Seems the cold air is undercutting faster than what was initially forecasted.

I would like this shift south to continue. Let's hope it ends up being more than just a 12/18 hour event for much of the lower elevation areas before melting.

Personally want more shifting south and so Friday is more of the same as Thursday. Never like 1 day snow events, especially those right before a weekend. But it's nice to see shifts south - hopefully it can continue that way so the above happens.. not solved yet.

Better runs, seems to have been a tad shift south again. Perhaps bias on models to push the low northwards? Seems more likely now to push east or south east again..

I'm confused as to why the met have removed the warning for us. There's been a shift south on the 6z runs.. could they have left it until tonight's runs to see if a shift south again is plausible? Little accumulating here but Stoke on some charts seeing 5cms +.

ICON is a good 60/70 miles further south for the 0C isotherm compared to the 00z. Another shift like that later could be interesting...

Icon's an improvement Possibly a biggg improvement

Good morning, Still plenty of uncertainty regarding the low, ensembles pretty much the way to look. Not going to say much but quick looks did seem to suggest they moved slightly further south this morning, so more of the mids see a decent day of snow cover (Thursday). With regards to a more southern shift again, the WRF model (which was consistent on a rather northerly path) has significantly shifted south compared to recent runs. But mid term still seems decent - perhaps an Easterly past mid month so let's see if that comes to anything.

Want to wake up at 7 to a big shift south by all models please!

blizzard81 I know. but there's still a fair few solutions in the ensembles.

MKN it hasn't. Models have been rather poor recently. I doubt they've got the solution right, expecting more differences throughout tomorrow.

Shocked to see such wild swings in modelling. 3/4 days out and still no consistency. This isn't finished. Expecting a mid solution now.

I still don't think models have this. Such a wild swing in solutions today. Perhaps suggestions that models moving towards a middle ground solution. Honestly hoping for a southwards shift in the modelling overnight. What a grim month were heading towards if these runs verified.

I'm heading off again before the ECM comes out, but I'm still heading towards the models continuing this shift south. The cold front is moving through faster tomorrow on the 12z, ideally what the midlands needs to get a possible snow event on Thursday. I doubt models have got the final solution, probably tomorrow evening but perhaps as late as Wednesday evening.

Utterly a mess at the moment. FI about 48 hours. No consistency in model output. I'm going off for a bit. No point looking at individual runs. Let's see what the ensembles think and discuss from there.

Think there's one thing we can agree on, that models perhaps heading towards a middle solution. Somewhere like the NW Midlands and Yorkshire benefiting the most. But for now, until we get cross model agreement, we can't really pin down what is the right solution.

UKMO at 96

Sizeable 50-75 mile shift south on the GFS. I'm expecting a little more from it on the 18z. Perhaps a mid between the ECM and UKMO. Unless the UKMO moves a tad northwards which is...annoying!

May mean nothing but GFS is slightly further south at 48hrs.

MattStoke surprised by that, I've still got snow symbols here. Unless it's delayed updating.

frosty ground very dependent on the model. UKV and icon tend to underestimate I have found, although everyone has different interpretations for this. The ECM generally over estimates..