CoventryWeather

Pea sized hail, possibly weakly marble sized here, loud thunder and rather frequent lightning. Left a deposit of hail on the ground. Weren't recording at the time but perhaps some weak rotation as it passed over. What a way to start convective season!

Seems to be cloud breaking/clearance south of Plymouth and Torbay, could be some decent convection if that reaches land. Wonder if this is an area to watch for early afternoon.

New cells near Salisbury now seem the main lightning producers. Be interesting to see if they get any further inland, not expecting any here.

Been some proper convection today - had a lovely matured cell to the east pass by a few moments ago. And a lovely rainbow too!

Been some proper convection today - had a lovely matured cell to the east pass by a few moments ago. And a lovely rainbow too!

Had a heavy hail shower about 40-45 minutes ago, from a developing shower. Gone grey again and seems like we're about to get another heavy shower. Radars gone so can't confirm that!

Same here, seems the whole UK radar has suddenly stopped. All stuck at 16:00.

Decent lightning activity from Bristol to Hereford. Starting nicely. See how far inland it heads.

Certainly should be a little more active these next few days, widespread thundery showers the theme for the next few days, until Saturday at least. Not good at the technical bits, but let's hope for some decently active and long lived storms, even if it's a little early in the season!

Depressing output, perhaps a change later in the mid range on the GFS, but still unsettled. The latest ECM Hov-moller showing a change towards week 2 of April, but no sign of drier weather on the ECM longer range. Probably be off model watching for the next few days.

minus10 it was only a matter of time that the OP would show a run like that - the GEFS ensembles consistently showing ridging into the UK and Europe at around 300hrs (5/6th of April). The others not interested but the GEFS ensembles have been pretty good lately of leading trends. Let's see what the clusters show on tonight's ECM.

In Absence of True Seasons this is spot on - as many have mentioned we are seeing exceptional wet periods then dry periods. Is this the pattern that's likely to persist? Or as you said is there a pattern that's likely to become the slightly more dominant one. We can all agree it's getting milder, although whether it's wet and mild or dry and mild is another thing.

I've noticed a fair few members mentioning similarities to 1998. Looking back at recent times, I think a year like that is not common, but certainly not out of the question. Recently there has been extremely wet periods followed by very dry periods.. I wonder if we are impacted by both the presence of the Azores High expanding into Europe whilst dealing with excessive SST in the Northeastern Atlantic, making for rather rapid swings in our weather patterns. Just a thought, I'm not an expert on our weather patterns globally. Also think from May onwards it will turn drier. Year of 2 halves?

Should be changed to when will we hit 45, as others have mentioned. Relating to July 2022, if the warmest airmass arrived that touch earlier/later, then we would have exceeded 41/42 - if I remember correctly the temperature stopped quite early in the afternoon as cloud approached. Even without this we would have seen a much higher value. Either way quite a significant event, perhaps one that's not likely again in the coming years.

36.8, somewhere near Cambridge on 21st July. I'm not going any higher unless we get a significant dry spell. For reference @BlueSkies_do_I_see, can we add further temps and dates/edits as time goes on?

Now the ECM 12z goes on yesterdays GFS route. Drier and warmer, traps a heat low west of Portugal. It's starting to trend in the right direction, let's head this down towards day 5/6.

Can't have worse weather than this for a Monday morning. Low cloud, drizzle, easterly wind.. Utterly awful.

Don it wasn't meant to come across that way, simply an opinion. To be fair I'd take anything over this cloud fest we get this week. I'd prefer a warm Easter for a change though. Overnight modelling going for something warmer, following the GFS runs from yesterday. No sign of blocking or anything colder from my view in the reliable.

Also to point the GFS 06z towards day 10 is similar - Euro High, Atlantic trough and a warm southerly. Not as warm as the 00z but still warm. And dry. It's been the best model this winter for picking up trends in the midrange.

TwisterGirl81 I mentioned a risk of this happening a few days back - nice to see an op run showing the chance of it happening. The ECM ensembles less confident on a cold period and an increase in the warmer solutions - a trend is occurring now towards something warmer I think.

That's a ridiculous plume for south eastern Europe at the end of the GFS run. If that came off, we would see some remarkable heat records. And it's only late march at that point.

feb1991blizzard bank it in Jan, not now.. Anyways a further increase in warmer ensembles on the GEFS 06z. I'd expect a cluster on tonight's ECM. P5 looks nice. I do wonder if we will have a warm snap then a cold snap towards Easter. A typical spring mix.

Anyone fancy an early season plume? Has been gaining interest in recent model runs. The GEM tries something at day 10.

Modelling looks pretty average for the time of year - fairly bog standard spring weather. I'm not expecting another washout in the mid range, if anything I would expect a weakish high near to the UK. Say the ECM/UKMO is probably near to where I would expect it to head. Extended range is rather uncertain with the reversal, but again not convinced it will lead to anything cold.

Away slightly from the relatively uncertain reliable, there's been a trend to deliver quite significant warmth to the Mediterranean and Spain over the past few days, towards the end of the month. The latest GFS pulling some out into the Atlantic by 384. Perhaps signalling a warm (dry) spell in Europe is not far away, when was the last time we had an warm April/May period?