CoventryWeather

Stunning day, actually feeling spring like. Currently 11 degrees according to my phone.

Looking at the short-term this evening, much drier than of late. Some showers overnight and warm dry days. Feeling a lot more seasonal. Seems to be a fair few upgrades early on in runs which seems to be making a difference towards day 10. Scandi High is being underestimated again.

Stunning day, warm sunshine pretty much all day apart from the end when cloud started to build in. Nice sunset too as mentioned above - and the week looks pretty decent too with rain/showers mainly overnight, days look sunny and warm. It was also an interesting cloud structure too!

I'm personally not buying the colder runs at the moment, until we start seeing some sort of consistency from the Operationals and some movement from the ensembles, then average seems the way to go. Continuation of a wetter theme, although perhaps not as much as recently. Anything cold seems limited to the north east, the south most likely keeping somewhat milder with a southeasterly. A fairly N-S split but nothing really unusual for early spring. On regards for the stratosphere reversal, most likely to come into play past mid month. I'd say this is possibly when colder synoptics will be more likely, especially in a northerly more than an easterly.

Lukesluckybunch I would say marginal.. others would probably be better at analysing that though. Let's see what the end of the UKV will show later.

Lukesluckybunch would have preferred these in Jan. Not now. Still likely to be cold rain for the majority, unless uppers are at -8/9.

Radford area (roughly 110/120m) had some wet snow earlier. Binley had rain at the same time. Last hour or so has been heavy rain with no sign of sleet. Sums up the winter here.

I remember Atlantic 252 yep, and people on the channel want it. Deffo not cold enough for snow. If it came off it would be utterly awful weather.

Snowed early in the night but heavier stuff at 7 was just rain. Dew Points falling again so perhaps something wet later.. although I'm hoping for spring now. MOD output channel hoping for more cold rain again

Lukesluckybunch Oh cold rain, everyone loves that!

Tomorrow looks messy, fair bit of disagreement on where the band/centre of the low will be. Position of it will determine where the sleet/wet snow boundary is. Knowing our luck it'll be more horrific cold rain with some snow to hills.

Well more rain and sleet tomorrow for most of us. Can we have some dry warm weather now please? Output looks terrible.

Got a sleet symbol, worth celebrating.

Latest UKV seems interesting for Saturday Morning, especially in the eastern region. I do think it's looking rather marginal, think more elevation would do best. Still a lot to be resolved in a short time frame.

Nice dry day forecasted. Oh no, a lonely shower exploded to life as it hit Coventry. Clean car now not so clean spent a good hour cleaning it..

Hints latter mid range for something drier developing. Both the GEM and GFS on that path. Mentioned the chance of it the other day, but got spoken down due to it being outside the 'reliable'. The GEFS have been interested today around day 10.

The GFS built the ridge over Iberia again towards day 10. Different outcome this time as it is less warm and more unsettled. But I can't see why I can't place my opinions on the op run, if others do exactly the same thing. The GFS is consistently showing this. I'm not cherry picking or anything. Not unlike many people here who posted a chart from one ensemble 16 days ahead - at least I'm placing the charts from the reliable range. Considering the way the weather has been recently and the models underestimating the Iberian ridge I can't see why this is an outlier solution (it may be consistently wrong but atleast it's not rapidly changing). There's support over on the GEM ensembles now, I'd say that enough evidence to start saying it's a cluster that you can't rule out.

Daniel* you looked at just one ensemble run - it's been fairly consistent past few days. Ensembles aren't at the same resolution so the OP will pick up the trend first.

Starting to see differences appearing again towards days 7-10. The GFS more interested in the Iberian ridge again moving north, allowing a drier picture for Europe, also warmer as we develop a southerly airflow. Not too much support from the ECM though, pretty consistent on a strong northwesterly. Think we all know what the beat solution is for us - a drier pattern! Certainly no really option at the moment but GFS a real trend setter recently, no doubting that.

Captured the same thing as @Metwatchearlier from Radford area. Been a stunning day, feeling warm. Convection was again lovely to see.

The GFS goes towards a cold outlook around day 10 again, with a cold northerly or NE wind. The GEM and GFS have been fairly interested at this in the mid range, and the latter certainly been the one recently that makes trends. Anyone (like me) looking towards more drier and spring like weather will be disappointed with the output tonight. Early march looking a lot like winter.

Nice to see some early season convection around. Couple of heavy showers towards Shropshire heading towards me, out and about to try and catch some of the cloudscapes. Doubt there's going to be any storms as it's rather early in the season and the sun isn't too strong, but nice to see anyways.

There's a risk of something cooler later next week, looks like a core of the polar vortex moves near to Scotland. I'd say there is a small chance of snow to lower elevations as the thicknesses are 522-524 widely. Think at this time of year 850 temps aren't fully accurate to record snowfall. Not an expert in this though. But I'm enjoying today, peaked just above 13 and it's pleasant. A few convective showers but nice to see spring nearby.

Weather Enthusiast91 all the seasons are out of sync. We tend to do best for cold in March and April, wetter in the winter months and warm and dry in September and maybe October. I'd like a year that actually has seasons instead of late warmth or cold for a change.

Weather Enthusiast91 that can happen in mid winter, not in spring thanks