CoventryWeather

Lovely day out there, feeling like spring. 16 degrees here.

Nice to see the UKV showing some showers tomorrow and Sunday, likely convective, supported by the Arome too. A sign that convective season is nearby now - not too long until we see the start of home-grown storms!

GFS gives coldies some hope. Turns colder later next week and gives showers more than bands of rain. Think most here would take that - at least there would be some sunshine inland and convection would be possible as we head towards early march.

I'd take anything over this. Full day of rain again, full cloud cover. Atleast the latest GFS would give inland areas dry sunny weather. A few convective showers too which would be nice to see for a change.

Poor forecasting of the rain this morning, as others have mentioned. Seems the warm front is already into the south west. Still no dry weather on the mid range models, any sort of UK high is fading on model output.

raz.org.rain this I would massively take. I think some people need to remember the Hadley Cell is expanding yearly now. It's not just over the Azores - it spreads easily to Iberia and into Europe. Results: Wetter and Milder winters and drier warmer summers. @Kasim Awanmentions it a lot and seems to be hated by many, but he knows models under do this - and clearly whats happened with potential cold spells this winter (and perhaps others to come). Late SSWs also seems to occur regularly nowadays (don't know if it happened much in the 80s/90s) which is why spring ends up awful. UK and Europe aren't experiencing seasons anymore - everything is completely out of sync due to this change in the Hadley cell. This will probably get moved to the moans and groans section but feel some here need a little education to why it's hard to get a proper winter event now. The 2018 BOTE is and will always be a once in a decade or even century event. That isn't going to reoccur sadly.

frosty ground let's narrow it down. I'd just like a week or two of dry sunny weather. Is that too much to ask? Consistent gloom and rain is an awful way to end the extended autumn.

Pretty dire modelling at the moment, nothing dry on the horizon, warm or spring-like. Continuation of a wet theme seems like the way forward. Hoping the SSW doesn't happen, I just want warmth now. The amount of hype for this winter and nothing to show shows how awful UK winters are now. Give me a good spring and summer now, not a delayed winter or extended autumn.

Reports in the amber warning area in Wales show heavy rain. Unless it's expected to change later there, it's a big fail. Roll on spring, models look warmer later next week.

Metwatch shame really. Considering what they were showing a few days back.

After tomorrow's event I'll be calling winter over. Kind of want some early warmth. Looking ahead into march with this SSW forecast, might be a while until we see spring.

METO app updated and now shows snow again on Thursday. 2 degrees max. Rain back by early Friday. Suggesting a shift south on latest UKV.

MattStoke GFS a bit behind I think, seems more shifts south through tomorrow likely. I wonder if you could stay under snow all day and perhaps start of Friday? Don't think it's far from that stage - happy to be corrected.

Mike Poole so that small shortwave pulls the whole low northwards? For me that just defies physics. Unless there's a kink in the jet stream that moves it north.. I suspect its model bias.

Think after Thursdays event I'll be calling winter over. Give us an early summer for once instead of a delayed winter in April for Easter. Starting to already see a few runs with quite warm uppers in France and Spain towards the end of the runs so hopefully won't take much to force them this way as we start to approach March.

Ali1977 tbh it was one of the further north models with the GFS. None of the models have been consistent today at 48 hours. Stop looking at day 5-10, cause that's rapidly changing due to the low on Thursday.

andy_leics22 Arpege Has that moved south again? It was a fair way south on the 6z.

Spah1 Not really ranting just stating I want the southwards shift to continue. Definitely a trend south, by 20 miles or so. Still a fair few runs until models get the hang on it, so I wouldn't rule out the south midlands for now. Seems the cold air is undercutting faster than what was initially forecasted.

I would like this shift south to continue. Let's hope it ends up being more than just a 12/18 hour event for much of the lower elevation areas before melting.

Personally want more shifting south and so Friday is more of the same as Thursday. Never like 1 day snow events, especially those right before a weekend. But it's nice to see shifts south - hopefully it can continue that way so the above happens.. not solved yet.

Better runs, seems to have been a tad shift south again. Perhaps bias on models to push the low northwards? Seems more likely now to push east or south east again..

I'm confused as to why the met have removed the warning for us. There's been a shift south on the 6z runs.. could they have left it until tonight's runs to see if a shift south again is plausible? Little accumulating here but Stoke on some charts seeing 5cms +.

ICON is a good 60/70 miles further south for the 0C isotherm compared to the 00z. Another shift like that later could be interesting...

Icon's an improvement Possibly a biggg improvement

Good morning, Still plenty of uncertainty regarding the low, ensembles pretty much the way to look. Not going to say much but quick looks did seem to suggest they moved slightly further south this morning, so more of the mids see a decent day of snow cover (Thursday). With regards to a more southern shift again, the WRF model (which was consistent on a rather northerly path) has significantly shifted south compared to recent runs. But mid term still seems decent - perhaps an Easterly past mid month so let's see if that comes to anything.