CoventryWeather

Thanks, weren't expecting any risks, thought it was a fairly messy area of rainfall in Wales. I've got to do a set of outdoor photos this evening/night so would prefer no showers or storms! Although distant lightning I wouldn't mind!

Think the broad area of travel is: - Weak High mid to late next week - High retrogression to Mid Atlantic - dry northerly to NWerly, showers inland from surface heating. - High most likely to end up over the UK/NW Europe just after mid month.. Pretty decent agreement up to day 10, bar the odd timings of warm and cold fronts etc. Seems a mixed April could be on the cards.

Rain All Night I'm just looking and giving insights into what models are showing. Not an expert but I'd suspect the high to continue to control the weather until months end - likely it will give brief NW or N winds at times. Can't see the wet weather lasting summer.

The GFS continues to move towards the Euros for a drier pattern next week. The ECM clusters pretty good agreement on this - no GFS cluster on this mornings. The extended shows the high moving either NW or south, but plenty of uncertainty. Would have thought the drier pattern would stick for the rest of the month and perhaps the summer.

Looks potent - cooling aloft helping.

Trend continues to show us drying up - waiting for the latest ECM, but GEM, ICON and UKMO all interested in a drier pattern by mid next week. GFS is alone in keeping a much wetter pattern although moved slightly towards the others on its latest run. Let's hope it sticks.. and it lasts for a while too!

Can see 3 huge anvils to my north - one with what seems to appear to be overshooting somewhat (might be wrong). Likely the Peak District batch, Nottingham cells and the remnants of the Leicester showers.

Convection collapsing here, few heavier showers to the south, that's it.

Penrith Snow I know what you mean, but you have to start somewhere! Must admit, think it will turn drier this month, mid month seems a decent bet at the moment..

Is this the beginning of a new trend towards something drier by day 10? GFS, ECM, GEM at day 10 Here's the ICON at 180 The ICON would follow the ECM and GEM if it continued to day 10, with the Atlantic trough making a ridge towards southern UK and France. The ECM and GEM are very similar over Europe, the latter not having a shortwave near Denmark, making the ridge look cleaner. Certainly question whether the ridge would hold, but a sudden shift overnight.. can it get down to the reliable though? Let's hope the models aren't playing an April Fools Joke....

Wonder if the previous showers used the energy.. were decent cells but think many here would have preferred a night display instead. Still a fair few hours to go, maybe the energy isn't here yet.

Azazel probably wind convergence, although I might be completely wrong with that.

Surprised to see it so active.

Looked quite explosive on satellite. Is there a cap in the low/mid levels today?

Winchester? Some strikes there. Also near Exeter too.

Few towering clouds on satellite around Basingstoke, wouldn't be surprised to see a shower or two here soon. Edit: Radar Returns.

Eagle Eye seems to linger some instability in East Anglia and the East Midlands during the night - not much (about 300/400) but perhaps the odd flash or two later as the band pushes northwards.

Some potent storms over France. Can't wait for the summer plumes.

There is weakly a trend in the last few days to show something drier towards mid April, but I can't say I'm keen to see it until it gets into the reliable. The ECM 46, CFS and the latest GFS runs slightly heading towards that route - a fairly mixed April to come, a washout for the first and a much drier second half? Also be interested to see previous dry May months, as I feel it's an increasing possibility now (see how that unfolds over the next month XD)

Some of the best cloudscapes I've seen in a while last couple of days - hopefully a sign of things to come over the next few months.

2 stunning cells.

View to the south towards Stratford cell.

In an area of sunshine now and patches of cumulus developing to my south. Let's see what happens. Some cells getting a little bit stronger near to Bristol.

matty40s That's decent sized hail for the UK. Makes the hail here look normal.

matty40s any visuals of it? Would love to see the structure.