Rob 79812010

The same in Manchester. 1981 of course memorable. 2020 and 2022 were decent here. TBH it's weird as Manchester seems to have some snow most years now. When I was younger it was less so but the memorable ones were very memorable. 2009 2010 the best I've ever known

I struggle to intepret the models but have noticed that some with a more scientific knowledge have repeatedly said that the signs for blocking that would benefit UK was always going to be late Dec and into early jan

Yes, the recent cold spell a surprise

On netweather latest monthly forecast Netweather latest monthly forecast

Latest monthly forecast suggest increasing chance of widespread snow in Jan. Models suggesting changes in Jan? Am liking it

The calender industry will be rolling out pics of Windermere for years with the snow. What an amazing event by ANY standards. Low altitude made it all the more incredible

Absolutely 2004 they should have said. Did they mean London? Stockport had 4 inches of snow in the evening on Christmas day. Absolute better. Dec 2010 was exceptional for its crazy low temp for the month and huge snowfalls in parts of Yorkshire

Thankyou for explaining

I agree. This December looking likely to be close or maybe slightly below average with models indicating some colder weather back end of month. In my book, that's 2 decent December's on the bounce. February seems to be the problem in recent years.

Thanks so much taking time to explain!

Could I ask a question as a relative novice? The ensemble charts as above seem to be quite useful as a reference point and show where there's uncertainty later in period which makes sense. I often look at GFS 2m temp models and they can show wild swings in F1 from run to run often showing very cold or very warm temps. In my untrained eye that tells me their not showing a more likely midway scenario??

We care

Remember 2004 when manc got 3 inches on Christmas day night? Covering 2010 but didn't snow. Think there was one when I was a kid. Mid late 70s

Also, bit ranty now but read the other day that snow used to be common in nov and Dec. Think it was bbc article. If you lived on a mountain maybe. Honesty would like to see evidence for lowland areas having snowy November's. Never was in North West. Off topic but had to say it

I still think this will be a decent winter month. A few days mild, then seasonal, maybe a day or two of mild again and the last week will define Dec as an average or slightly below or above. Cracking first week of December and some suggestions of colder to come in Jan and Feb. So 2 decent December's then for coldies!

We've had a great start to winter, models throwing up all sorts of possibilities and potentially a cold end to the year

They're monthly forecast said there was no sign of any sustained cold weather and that was only a week before the cold started

I hope you're right. And unless there are any big surprises this month, it looks like December will pan out at average or just below temp wise

Thanks so much for that. As I'm fairly new to this, the mean sounds like a good one for me to keep my eye on . Find your posts really interesting by the way!

Could anyone tell me what the op and control mean on an ensemble chart? Thankyou

Taking account of some of the longer term models and seemingly some confidence that the latter part of December could be colder, I think it all looks pretty good. Should be slightly below average temps at mid point, probably 0.5 to 0.7 degrees, a colder back end of the month should result in a cold December overall. 2 years running! Not so bad really

Totally agree. All our winters deliver mild periods. 63 and 47 were borderline biblical and so rare. 79 and 2010 had plenty of mild periods. The cold periods as I've said before were exceptionally cold in these winters. This winter has started well by any standards. This is the UK and one of the reasons we love the cold. Too much of anything and, well, it loses its gloss! Yes I spent all last night looking out of the window and it didn't really deliver. But sometimes it does. Maybe fun and games later in Dec. Some models suggesting it may

I do think there are promising signs though for later in December. By mid December I think we'll be slightly below average given the very cold start and then probably mildish week to mid December. All to play for and as ever, lots of uncertainty

For now anyway