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Everything posted by Rob 79812010
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1979 and 2010. 79 got an extra 3 weeks off school. Yes schools did close in the 'good old days' contrary to what some claim. Jan 5th 2010 working from home followed by the biggest freeze I've ever known. Minus 18 at night. And snow on ground for a week. Might not sound amazing but believe me it us for Manc
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Always had the shadow. Check out 1947!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And Dec 23 for a few days -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And 86! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hope so. Won't in my neck of the woods though.Never came off in 80's. Got to be Irish Sea snow showers or freak easterlies that actually get snow over to manc -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So much to be positive about about in the models. Beeb monthly update is very encouraging. They still mention effects of ssw in feb -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would say the start of a cold spell. Deep cold, doesn't seem that way -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks to me like we're already locked into an extended cold spell. I've seen Greenland highs before that dont produce severe cold, but are still quite cold. Presume it wouldn't take much to suddenly become a lot colder. Can anyone throw light on this?? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The greeny blocking won't be a problem. Its not going to produce severe cold though. It will be quite cold though. This pattern could be around for a while in my opinion. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Blocked and cold is looking likely and I see nothing to suggest it going away. I've seen this type of blocking before and though it will stay quite cold it probably won't be severe. Cant explain it buy maybe a better scenario for long term cold. Is prefer that to a raging easterly that's gone in a week -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know, this all confuses me as an amateur. I keep thinking the models, forecasts, ensembles are great. Then I read all the negative stuff and wonder if I'm missing something!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Any normal winter and I'd be chuffed with the GFS output this morning. Think this is good as our expectations are rightly heightened!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In fairness, other than the usual occasional wild model, the short medium and even longer term output has suggested cold, occasionally very cold but not severe cold. Other than the famous winters, periods of cold are rarely severe other than fleeting blows. 2 weeks of what we're seeing with temps 1 to 2 below means very decent uk winter weather. I'm liking the longevity of this one. Below average Jan more than likely and who knows Feb! Continuance or early spring. Hmmmm -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Always banana skins in UK. Could all go to plan though. Always a rarity but it still happens from time to time -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Rob 79812010 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
47? -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Rob 79812010 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Media has an agenda. Yes of course there is global warming but the media / state want us to invest into this. Partly for good reason but also green energy is big business now. News reports are sometimes wildly exaggerated and in many cases not true. If snow comes late one year to Scandinavia the news will be full of it. They go very quiet when things return to normal Drinking with joy if it was me!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, Id have to seriously consider model watching in the future. I'd probably come back to it though!!! Its that awful disappointment though when it all falls apart. I do think though that when the beeb etc are behind all this, we really are in with a shout -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
81 was definitely not a 6 to 7 week frigid period. Where have you got that from?? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
My fingers are crossed!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can't help it!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rob 79812010 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'd be happy enough at this stage with Jan 21 cet or below