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Rob 79812010

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Everything posted by Rob 79812010

  1. Rob 79812010
    Question for long time model watchers. When the charts consistently showing colder temps out in F1 which then come into the medium term, is it still feasible it can all go belly up??
  2. Rob 79812010
    I think what happens is that people interpret the charts which as you say are often wrong. What I realised is that the comments aren't really giving forecasts, they're just saying what they see. Coldies like me then pick the models which go for cold
  3. Rob 79812010
    Blimey, best charts for years, bbc and met and netweather forecasts all positive, so much potential. Shouldn't we be more excited?? Or are we hedging our bets as we've 'seen it all before'. Thing is, we have seen it all before with the models but often find the forecasters don't buy into it. They are now!!!
  4. Rob 79812010
    Maybe a mini 47 where the fronts arrive from sw then pushed away. I should point out they aren't good for my neck of woods. Yorkshire gets pasted though and south england
  5. Rob 79812010
    Worth noting bbc just updated monthly forecast and keeping cold till end of month! Not stating severe cold though. Guess that depends on getting that Greenland high. Anyway, how long since this scenario!!
  6. Rob 79812010
    What about 2021?? In UK was 1.4 below average and coldest since 2010. I realise that's not saying much!
  7. Rob 79812010
    We are now seeing a transition from cold to very cold after middle of month. History suggests we might not necessarily hit the dizzy heights of GFS F1, but surely not unreasonable to stick my neck out and suggest this really could be a cold January ie 1 maybe even 2 degrees below. As for a very cold January, would take a brave person to hang their hat on that one. A few people mentioned Tamara's insight from a few days ago. Looking to me like a very insightful piece now
  8. Rob 79812010
    Weather Outlook do sensible forecasts. Headline for month -Cold with an increased risk of snow - Overall temps, below average' . Not seen that in Jan for a while. Models are onto something. Who knows, SSW and el nino Feb and it just might end up a proper winter!!
  9. Rob 79812010
    Well it was looking like a one week affair a few days ago! A 2 week cold spell would indeed be special! Severe cold, maybe later I think
  10. Rob 79812010
    Course it can!!!! I'll buy it !!
  11. Rob 79812010
    We had decent one last year from memory??
  12. Rob 79812010
    4.2 80 mm
  13. Rob 79812010
    Thankyou so much for that. It makes sense.
  14. Rob 79812010
    Do you know why Ambleside area gets so much given its elevation?? Beginning Dec 23 I noticed northern lakes didn't get as much. There's a science am assuming
  15. Rob 79812010
    Also, 2004 we had a beauty on Christmas day evening. 3 inches and everyone out in road
  16. Rob 79812010
    I remember going back to school and we all got sent home because of burst pipes. Had another 3 weeks off. I'd never seen so much snow. Jan 2010 delivered similar depth but think 79 edged it. Oh so rare for Manchester. Irish Sea always our best chance but normally just a couple of cm. Sometimes the stars align I guess
  17. Rob 79812010
    Tamara, could you resend the post from yesterday?? Thanks so much
  18. Rob 79812010
    I am seeing a 7 day cold spell, maybe 10. Not convinced there's any strong signal for severe cold. Beeb and Met both giving it back chance though so it's possible
  19. Rob 79812010
    Agreed. Any cold spell 10 days or more in the UK should be banked. They have been and always have been the exception
  20. Rob 79812010
    Can I put a question out! Was the Jan 2010 snow event a polar depression moving N to S or was it more of a NW to SE flow off Irish Sea. Same question for the heavy snow on NYD 79? Keep reading about possible snow events coming from the south and hitting cold air in weeks to come. They really aren't Manchesters friend in my experience
  21. Rob 79812010
    Another question. With the ensembles and scatters, is it good if the control stays well below the mean??
  22. Rob 79812010
    Are long very cold periods always to do with a SSW?
  23. Rob 79812010
    Models telling me a cold second week in Jan. Any thought on any longevity?? Thinking the PV is the way to longer term cold!
  24. Rob 79812010
    Reasons for optimism justified by current output. Liking Mets outlook as well. Could do with BBC lowering it's forecast temps a bit though!
  25. Rob 79812010
    Its a great upgrade isn't it. Long may it continue. Hope the models agree!!
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