Rob 79812010

Looking at the ensembles its saying below average to 23rd then slightly above till 27th. Beeb is up to 11 degrees by 27th. Am starting to question why I keep obsessing about all the model output. The forecasters seem to see stuff that isn't there. And they're probably right I reckon. So many times the F1 shows Narnia. It happens once in a blue moon. If I'm wrong I'll be back straight back on the thread

Latest ensembles not looking like much of a warm up. BBC going up up up after 21st.

Those winters were rare in fairness. And in Manchester they would turn to rain before more cold, which made it treacherous. Honestly can't remember many like that here. Jan 85 I think! The big ones for Manc were the ones coming from irish sea. 79, 2010. We like them here

To me, everything seems pretty much on track. Last week of Jan was always looking like a warm up. It's what comes after that.....

Can you send me your training method?

Beeb monthly pretty much aligning to model output. Brief average or slightly above for a week in last week jan with Scotland probably staying below. This after a pretty lengthy cold spell for most.Then goes cold again to welcome Feb. This is all very tasty indeed

Really interesting this. I generally think the beeb and net have a good handle on the longer term. I mentioned this morning that the beeb longer term not in sink with the models. 3 times now they've lowered temps out at 20th to 24th. Whereas they were going to very mild yesterday by 23rd, they're now only showing average out at 24th. Also, snow events looking more likely just prior to this as well as next week. Likely very cold next week, a return to average for a few days then back to cold by late Jan. Fascinating stuff. Models done a great job this time

We're down to average at this stage. Last week of Jan should determine whether a cold, slightly cold or near average month

Yeah, its stuck from 3rd.

Thanks so much for that

Can someone throw some light on something please. Gefs ensembles mean showing that temps in last week of Jan barely getting to average. This is out to 26th. Beeb showing us up to 9 degrees by 23rd which doesn't seem to tally with anything I'm seeing. Do beeb get it so wrong sometimes and what do they base their forecasts on??

Yeah, it's that damn Manc thing!

Me too! My location awful for the latter

If its coming from South West, may be good for you guys but for Manc it'll be a non starter. Classic snow shadow this one

The met update looks fantastic to me. Is this the 'deep dive' being referred to?. I can't remember many forecasts like this in recent years. In fact, given the slight shift on the ensembles and the latest met update, I'm now thinking that the last week of Jan may actually stay on the cold side. There are people on hear with considerably more knowledge than me, but things seem to keep creeping in the right direction. I get the model swings are scary sometimes but keep calm, all is well for coldies. I think!!!

Good set of latest ensembles. Expect beeb to lower temps at 21st 22nd. Met seem to be more on it to me

Beats me what some people are expecting. We're currently 2 to 3 below average, then becomes a few days of barely average (models were showing going above average a few days ago) then cold to very cold for a week. Beyond, who knows but think we're all feeling that a cold Feb is very much coming into the mix. Also, chance of snow for some next week. This isn't a typical Jan scenario for us

The lows will eventually get through but suspect it will be a relatively short period before back to cold. So, probably slightly below average Jan and I'm gagging for Feb to come

Doesn't feel like spring! Brrrr

Its net weather website. Monthly updates. They are very credible and definitely don't exaggerate any possible cold spells

Could be a proper winter spell this. Shaded of 79 2010 maybe? Cold generally with short mild spells and some snow events

It's on the Netweather website. Not sure who does it. Believe me, they don't over egg anything. They're pretty conservative normally and generally fairly accurate

Alert!!! Net weather monthly update through to 6 Feb one of the best I've ever seen!! The models are certainly onto something

We really were. To me, it was reminiscent of 79. That's not from a technical point of view. Just remember quite a few snow events, staying on ground for a while and short periods of milder weather. Also, both winters had one mega snow event in manc as well as some lesser ones. They weren't the snowy break down types either which are dire for Manchester. Brilliant for Yorkshire though. Can they be good for your neck of the woods at lower levels??

Its weird isn't it, I'm sure Manchester now has more snow events than the past. Rarely spectacular but then again, we can count them on one hand for Manc. 80's rarely delivered apart from 81 and maybe one ot two more. Cold decade yes, bit not particularly snowy