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Rob 79812010

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Everything posted by Rob 79812010

  1. Rob 79812010
    I wonder if it's helpful to look at the models very much alongside the met bbc forecasts. Of course they can be wrong too, but they seem to be sticking to a slightly colder than average week 2 and week 3 with a possible move to colder later. I still don't get it with the wild swings with some models. They don't seem to show mean outcomes represented in the ensembles. Do they show outliers? Would be grateful if someone could shed some light??
  2. Rob 79812010
    Are we all agrees there's some type of cold spell coming!!
  3. Rob 79812010
    I for one am very excited by what I'm seeing. Come on, it's not just the models. The forecasters are on to something as well. And I'm not seeing anything about a return to mild on the longer term forecasts. There's a lot to be optimistic about. Of course with the caviat that models, forecasters and just about anyone struggles when it comes to predicting cold outcomes. 70 30 the odds on a lengthy cold spell for me
  4. Rob 79812010
    What I'm liking in the long term forecasts is that I'm not seeing phrases like 'and by the weekend it will turn milder for all areas'. In fact, it's been a while since a whole month forecast keeps the trend colder
  5. Rob 79812010
    Am pretty sure the cold at the beginning of the month caught them out. Bbcs even better
  6. Rob 79812010
    Take a look at the BBC monthly output. Colder outlook and possibility becoming very cold later in month. This is before we start talking about an ssw. The monthly outlook in winter, whenever forecasting cold, you always know it will say somewhere 'and milder weather returns by such a date'. Not this time. Good reason for optimism if you're a coldie
  7. Rob 79812010
    I'm quite optimistic for the chances of cold. Some of models keeping cold coming in from early Jan. Ties in with bbc forecast as well. However, those in the know have said many times that cold outcomes are more difficult to forecast with accuracy. At least there's a chance...
  8. Rob 79812010
    Manchester in the shadow today. Like what I see coming up. New year starting average to slightly cold then trending cold in second week. And all this before an ssw. Something in the air folks
  9. Rob 79812010
    Yes, its strange isn't it. I'm 60 and when I was younger it snowed here maybe once every 5 years. In last 15 years we've had snow probably 4 out of 5 years. Granted its often only a couple of cm. It was forever thus in Manc though barring the famous ones. Bizarre
  10. Rob 79812010
    3.2 degrees and 50 mm rain
  11. Rob 79812010
    I know but its impossible not to!!!
  12. Rob 79812010
    What's happened with the GFS chart?? After new year, now showing the cold embedded pretty much from turn of year. I'm assuming from all the knowledge on hear that its probably bringing the cold in too quick. Sometimes milder outcomes pop up out of the blue and sadly often right. Could this be one of those rare times where the cold surprises us all at short ish notice! Wouldn't that be nice
  13. Rob 79812010
    Happy Christmas from GFS and an extremely cold January is my gift to you all!
  14. Rob 79812010
    The Nick Finnis SSW piece is certainly eyebrow raising.....
  15. Rob 79812010
    Could I ask whether anyone has the Dec Jan and Feb monthly means for 1991 2020? Can find 1981 to 2010 but struggling with latest. Met office stats if possible. Appreciated
  16. Rob 79812010
    I may be jumping the gun here. I have noticed in the 3 years I've been on here that when the models flip flop from very cold outcomes to very mild outcomes in the F1, it usually means the cold ain't coming. For a fewsday now though the F1s have stayed promising and those from a few days ago are showing cold charts in the slightly shorter term.
  17. Rob 79812010
    Don't we normally get excited about this type gfs 6z chart!!!! Come on, we could be in for a memorable January!
  18. Rob 79812010
    Blimey, just realised 47 aligns as well. Gonna happen this year or next and cluster as well. Some of the models are certainly encouraging
  19. Rob 79812010
    63, 79, 95, 2010! With a bit of flex of course. Clusters as well! May have to wait till next year!!!!
  20. Rob 79812010
    I think it's more of a 15 year cycle
  21. Rob 79812010
    Blimey, I didn't realise!
  22. Rob 79812010
    Average temp in London 'nowadays' is 24! Where have you got that from? Sounds like it's based based on a couple of years
  23. Rob 79812010
    Yes, last winter you're dead right. The bit of snow in Manc stayed on ground for a week.
  24. Rob 79812010
    Can't remember how long the Dec 81 lasted. 3 weeks maybe??
  25. Rob 79812010
    You're quite right with that. A 7 to 10 day cold period is indeed a good one in the UK by any standard. Beyond that, Feb 86, Dec 10 stand out for me. Winters of 1979 and 2010 were great but definitely sea sawed from cold to mild.
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