StormChaseUK
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Posts posted by StormChaseUK
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Imagine in February if we were expecting 0C and snow one day and it was 20C the next. I don't think i have ever seen anything like what is modelled for Saturday before. Hard to process.
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East Wales could possibly have a Colarado event Saturday, from 29C to 8C . Incredible.
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I think the models are over and under doing it wildly. I don't see how Wales can be 12C and over the Channel 44, 45C .
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17 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Potential for severe thunderstorms surely if conditions are right as Cape bound to be high... .but they may stay in France though with just heavy rain for us as front moves down...
Yes if that was west to east not north to south would be explosive.
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Saturday is certainly fascinating temperature wise, it does seem strange you can go from 32C to 12, 13C in such a short time , like car gears going from Gear 5 to Gear 2 in one go , I would have thought there would be more of a gradual reduction in the temperatures.
I wonder if the models are over-doing the heat and the subsequent cool down , seems far more feasible to go from 29C to 18C
than 31C to 11C in some parts.-
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The 06z introduces hotter temps into NW France compared to 00z run (from 31c to 37c in places) this hopefully might prolong the Saturday warmth a bit more.
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Oof.. so close
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1 hour ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
Yep . Slap bang over Wolverhampton .
On Saturday afternoon I'm going to say Wrexham, Shrewsbury area , Liverpool will be cooler rainy, somewhere like Hereford still just about in the warmer , hotter air.
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Will there be a Hollywood blockbuster sequel. TopPlume 2
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06z bringing back the contrast
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Spot the Cold Front
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Saturday is shaping up to be a day of huge contrast.
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12z is very interesting. The heat floats around and doesn't really go far from our shores.
Proper summer weather.
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The wind direction is interesting Friday evening, Maybe a thunderstorm event Midlands, SW or Wales Friday evening
Southerly 6pm
Northerly 3am
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HP starting to come back in Sunday. I think the concern that a Northerly low would spoil things has turned into a thunderstorm event lowering temps on the Saturday and warming up again.
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A 10c drop in temp between 6am to 9am Saturday in some places - this to me suggests some quite severe thunderstorms occuring during Friday night or early Saturday morning.
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1 hour ago, wimblettben said:
Whats that suppose to mean?
Forfeit next weekend for better weather afterwards.
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Looks like we sacrifice next weekend to the God of summer longer term.
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This is what I mean't in the earlier post, the weekend breakdown to cooler weather is short lived. As HP / warmth builds again.
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That
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:Are you in Ludlow California ?
? That was based on 00z run not seen 06z yet. Will check now.
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The interesting part is that the high pressure and temps around 20-25c stick around for weeks - this is really good for outdoors, cycling etc.
I don't really see any major breakdown in fine weather for a long time.
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Looks like the long awaited summer spell is finally about to arrive. 18z suggesting the warmth becomes not as intense but sticks around longer.
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Yes the 12z brings in the warmth earlier and then starts to fade during weekend.
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
At this stage what is the probability of the heat staying put on Saturday 10, 20% ?- it all seems finely balanced.
A move 50 or 100 miles here or there.