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Posts posted by StormChaseUK
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Surprising how the pattern just seems to repeat, a plume of warmer air nearly makes it in then down swoops the low pressure from NW, x 20 times.
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This summer isn't too bad really, not had too much rain, not really been too cold.
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18z is very warm, hot
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Occasional lightning observed from Ludlow , from the storms active over Hereford West in line to Hay on Wye.
Tame but a night storm none the less.
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Classic nocturnal destabilisation
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12z is better for next weekend yes, plume appears (sort of) then again during following week fi.
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06z still going for that warmer plume around mid month.
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Slow progress but there are signs that the HP from SW keeps trying to build in, just need to let those pesky lows from the North disolve away.
It's not ideal but it's better than having the low right over the UK, if that second low can slip further south around 10th June we could be in for a very hot plume. FI.- 5
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15 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Pretty sure we’ve fallen into this 10day trap, 3 times now in the last 3 weeks. Needs to get a lot close than that to be taken seriously.
Yes agreed it does appear to be a donkey carrot and stick situation. Hopefully third time lucky
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All that hot air over europe has to descend somewhere unfortunately it does look like the UK will be the low pressure breeding ground for June.
I think this happened before in 2017, or 2018 during June the Shropshire hills were 6c and Paris was 36c- 2
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43 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Oh dear! Not the greatest Ten-Day Trend I've ever seen:
The end of the 10 day trend if quite funny, even the Met don't know.
The low to the SW is causing a headache.- 2
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Tentative signs of a hot spell between 17th-19th June .