StormChaseUK
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Posts posted by StormChaseUK
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Stunned how models can go from 26C to 9C in space of a day. Don't think I've seen such a big change before.
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The 06z might improve,.. ah down to single figures in east. oh dear. Amazing how the models can change so much in 12 hours
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Models flip flopping again, still fail to believe high pressure won't build from SW.
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Yes we are heading to peak heating time of year now, the high pressure from SW will be too strong for those northerlies
I did a have a feeling a few days ago the models were overdoing low pressure.-
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Hmm I dunno, I'm still not convinced at this stage yet - I still think pressure will build in from SW.
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Cloud cover can be overestimated this time of year. My app yesterday had 15, 16c and overcast today it's 18, 19c sunny and very warm.
2nd-5th june period is long way off to be accurate and it's a much better situation than having atlatic fronts come in with wash out.
*06z is flipflopping all over the place- warmth is back
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Could be a blip, might switch back on 12z or 18z
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Could end up as Belgium MCS , I will keep an eye on the streams though good luck
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Can confirm just had a thunderstorm here in ludlow, shropshire.
Few bright flashes and loud thunder
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12z has moved cold back for Wales, could be snow on hills of Wales, Boxing day
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Down to the wire
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Hereford storm earlier this evening.
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That's where all the energy went...
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7 minutes ago, Azazel said:
What do we reckon tomorrow then guys. I’m leaning towards just very heavy rain.
i would say elevated lightning shows for South Coast, Somerset midnight onwards.
Heavy rain Sat morning for elsewhere.
Unless it's going to be 1990s standards huge MCS
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I bet the weather turns around, on 28th September... lol
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Looks rubbish, onto July/August
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47 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
I wouldn't even mind if it was slightly more unsettled and a bit mobile with systems passing us by. But it isn't. As is what seems to be the norm now, it's feast or famine. So we just get low pressure stuck over the UK again with nowhere to go, which can lead to absolutely rotten weather.
Ie GEM today. Same low pressure system stuck over us for 5 days straight:
Ouch.
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1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:
Northampton cells are looking to be developing on the western edge of the first MSC.
Yes I suspect the nocturnal cooling is now coming into play. Expect to hear a few reports of "I just saw a flicker of lightning" in Midlands, southern England shortly.
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hail in france looks nasty
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Very warm humid evening out there now in Herefordshire, Gloucester, down to Somerset area. feels ripe for elevated later in the night
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Starting to see some nice clumps of cloud behind that blob in the south east, southern flank of that blob being most active.
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Yes Poole I would expect to see the first of the flashes in night time darkness, Salisbury by about 1am my estimation
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For overnight storms you need a rash on radar not a whopping great clump of thundery rain/cloud pancake.
If you look west of Guernsey it has more of a thundery shower appearance on the radar. -
1 minute ago, markw2680 said:
Although i don’t expect much this far west you just never no as the night gets going. I’m waiting patiently for the usual comments of its a bust before it gets going, already slight hints of that in some comments lol. Anyway the night is young and ready to go bang later on tonight
The west could see elevated storms later in the night I reckon, even up to Midlands. The SE TS at the moment are channel homegrowns popping off.
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The pressure build over Russia does seem to cause low pressure to get stuck over us in summer months
Very unlucky to be stuck between the 2 areas of high pressure