StormChaseUK
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Posts posted by StormChaseUK
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1 minute ago, Alderc said:
That’s the problem though, Mother Nature and my misses are both strangely similar, fickle creatures and not likely to deliver what you expect (or want)
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Looks like Quimper in France is the first point to fire off (Brest)
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1 minute ago, Azazel said:
Anyone kind enough to post the latest UKV charts?
I was going to then realised it's subscription only so admin might not want those shared. I guess ask if admin? can share 1 or 2 grabs?
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Yes the UKV is factoring a few homegrowns in the heat and the elevated. First few storms maybe 7pm south east with more elevated overnight.
Something takes a huge chunk out the temps around 7pm in SE hmmm wonder if that's an expected early import or homegrown rain shower dropping temps -
2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Love how most models are predicting it to hit the South East and then the HIRLAM model just has it exactly where I live.
I have seen situations like this over the last 20 years and they never plan out to how models predict. (like asking which corn in the pan will popcorn and exactly when) It could form over Bristol and hit Midlands missing SE, it could form over Belgium and miss UK completely. no one knows.
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3 minutes ago, philglossop said:
What's this....a bit early???
false return maybe, nothing on ATD
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10 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Looks like an interesting 12 -24 hours weather watching for you guys. Hot continental air mass now pushing north into England and Wales. The plume should produce some isolated imported storms into the south later with some big tops forecast, but the main action could occur along the cold front out west with the added complication of what now seems to be some sort of short wave on its ascending movement. Always a difficult one to forecast the exact location of thundery activity. More a case of now forecasting. Enjoy your day. Hot and sunny over here ,well from the upcoming actions your way !
C
Good point MCS can sometimes form/get caught up in the frontal system. (don't think that will happen today though) depends how much heat is drawn up in front of it.
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Just now, Azuremoon2 said:
Everybody bar SE getting excited because the runs went slightly west yesterday, it was always going to be a Kent clipper and London show maybe. These kind of MCS systems always are. Looking forward to seeing the photos tonight
Yes the West get homegrown decent storms, the SE usually get the imports. (Elevated)
Although sometimes the SW, Bath, Bristol, East Wales has a good knack of developing Elevated lightning shows. -
Brighton is always a good spot. Like snow though, no one will know the exact location or time.
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1 hour ago, Alderc said:
We'll hopefully its just GFS being overly dramatic but under cloud and heavy rain temps will struggle.
Ouch that's the dreaded "thundery rain/claggy greyness"
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51 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
The Ukmo 12h T+144 hours just screams WOW WOW WOW!!!..do I really need to elaborate???!!!!
...for the SE it’s EPIC!!...and adds longevity to their hot / humid spell into the following week?!
Classic summer plume that,
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Models struggling with the plume I think, temps of 6C in Wales but 30C just over channel in France are unlikely
If I was a betting man I would say plume of hot air wednesday/thursday with quite severe thunderstorms in places giving a cool down to 15, 17C
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Thursday it could go bang in a big way with that dividing line between moist atlantic air and heat from the South. knife edge stuff
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2 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:
Apparently I'm currently under a heavy cell right now...but no precipitation?
Elevated, not all precip hits the ground
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11 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:
no self interest in that projection I see
Well unless I can live in 3 places 50 miles or so apart at the same time then no
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Look for cells firing off around Worcester, Ludlow, Bridgenorth, West Midlands area over next 2 hours.
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Could the cold be overplayed by the models? I find it hard to believe it will be the coldest and warmest March all in one week.
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My guess for lightning activity this afternoon evening will be red box, with not much activity or indeed cloud, rain blue box.
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Evening well spent watching this for hours
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Just now, Zak M said:
False, this is actually a photo taken from Kansas.
Follow me on twitter you'll see it live
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- Popular Post
Oo she's a beauty
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Yes nocturnal cooling later also helps the process
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Up the Long Mynd.
Rumbles to North, very high up though. Excellent for nighttime flashes but not much good for daytime
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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Looks a bit "thundery rain" type on current radar - activity is still south of it.