high ground birmingham

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me but the GFS looks like a minor upgrade on depth of cold. Uppers colder by say half a degree. Maybe its just me

I think the midlands will do well...we are the first to be at a higher elevation away from the North Sea. Even in the warmer easterly of Feb 2005, I can recall that we had widespread snow showers but it was hit and miss with settling. Next week, there should be no problem with settling due to the intense depth of cold.

I don't remember that one but in a cold set-up, different considerations apply especially given a strong block to our NE

Yes I agree with this assessment. Most likely for it to stay south. The time that I recall such a low moving up north through the UK was February 2005 but that was quite a disappointing event for many with constant falling snow but no settling

2.5C and 65mm

Thanks for sharing your memories. Quite a special event especially with no snow-melt for a number of days.

Another thing to add is that the tv forecasts have taken out the joy and excitement to see a special cold spell coming up especially with their over-stated temperatures

Just saw the bbc forecast. 3C in London on Tuesday. Hmm really? One thing I just do not understand is why the forecasts put so much focus on the urban heat island effect. It is massively misleading. Let's say I live in Surrey or London suburbs- I would assume that it would be 3C on Tuesday and be hugely annoyed when my car doesn't show higher than -1C all day. The urban heat island is like 20-30 square miles. Why so much focus on it? I just don't get it

Is it me or has this forum gone mad? Yes 12z GFS- the core of the second cold pool goes more into mainland Europe than the UK. But what a run otherwise- this forum used to dream of such runs. I think people have got spoilt with the recent mad runs. Chill and don't worry is the main message from me

Many thanks Damian. That sounds quite accurate. It was a few really beautiful days with snowcover and no clouds in the sky, and no melting. It wasn't a polar low was it on 27th-28th December 2000? Just a normal low feature?

Hi, I would like some information regarding a memory of mine from when I was 10 years old. I recall that after Christmas in 2000, we had a heavy snowfall in the Midlands (4-5 inches). It may have been around the 28th. Now, why it stuck in my mind is not necessarily the depth of the snow but due to the time of the year it occurred. The snowfall stuck around for 4 or 5 days before melting in the New Year. It is one of my favourite events as the days after the snowfall, there was beautiful, unbroken sunshine for some days. It was very cold as I remember the canals around here were frozen. Everything was so picturesque. Can somebody tell me what caused the snow event? And do share some memories if you enjoyed that event too.

It was definitely February 2005. You were right that the snow did come but it just didn’t settle. It snowed all day when I was at school. A huge disappointment that nothing settled. i can’t remember the exact date in Feb 2005 but it was a system coming up from the SE

The set-up for Thursday-Friday looks to me like this: Rain and then some back-edge snow on Thursday night (1-2 hours). Probably will not amount too much. Maybe max 2-3 cm for lower levels. The set-up reminds me a little of the evening of 26th December 2017 which gave 2 inches of snow here.

Even though snow depths were small (1 inch) over the last 2 days, will always remember this nice little wknd of snow. Mainly because there was no forecast of it till Friday. what a bonus and a great winter for the west mids so far

GFS has to be given a lot of credit here! Has modelled this consistently since 240 hours. Other models have been all over the shop especially ECM.

What a set up for you guys next week! I can imagine some pretty intense snow showers up there next week. Chuck some thunder in too given the unstable flow

An intense cold Westerly. Anything can happen! Big radar watching next week

I’m sorry but this is a little inaccurate Dont get me wrong but that week in December was incredible (10 inches snow) but the whole set up was different. It was a NNWerly and then a slider running into the cold air gave all that snow. This is different in that a pretty potent WNWerly will be hitting our shores. Quite unstable and unpredictable. Anything can be thrown in with some possibly pretty intense snow showers. Quite an exciting set up as things will just develop on the radar in no time. Probably the most potent cold Atlantic flow I have seen modelled in a very long time.

Your're right. It has been an incredible December here for snowfall. Regarding the models, surely that warm air being dragged up from the Meditteranean is a massive worry and I wouldn't bet against it coming off. It will rapidly cut off any cold flow before it reaches the South.

Yes missed out today. But how can some of us midlanders complain? We have seen such a snowy December. We had snow showers 7/8 Dec, 10 Dec massive snowfall (10 inches), 13 Dec backedge snow and Boxing Day (2 inches). The best December since 2010 and possibly the third best since 2000? After 2009, 2010

Just under 2 inches of snow has settled here in Harborne. Not a bad event

Wow some of the reports are showing how important altitude is in this sort of event.

The front is pivoting. I expect the Birmingham area to get another 4-5 hours of this. Appalling performance by the met office/bbc I have to say again. I wonder how many people have been caught off guard?

Met Office's performance over this has been abysmal. People caught out unaware. Gritters sent out too early while raining

Snowing heavily here and settling well. I must say the meto and bbc's performance on this event hasn't been great- quite lax really. The precipitation is now pivoting so expecting another few hours of this at least. Speaking to people- they simply didn't know it was going to snow tonight.