Harry

Very interesting comparing and contrasting the various different model runs for tomorrow night. MetO graphics seeming to suggest a pulse of more active storms breaking from the general line/cluster and spreading across the SE while another moves up across more western parts (see Alex Deakin's online forecast). MetO invent however keeping the main focus across more western parts although with a clear line stretching eastwards as far as Kent, Essex and EA. GFS still looking at something a bit more widespread,along with the Arpège. WRF NMM and NetWx SR still saying west is best with areas further east staying dry(er). Interestingly NetWx MR bit more generous further East. Euro4 starts with a clear line of precip outbreaks up until 18z before fracturing with a cluster heading ENE while another moves N/NW'wards. All a bit over the place but if I was around the Bristol/Swindon/Reading area I'd be feeling a bit more excited than I am right now (although ruling nothing out in my location to be fair)

WRF NMM having none of it for the SE too. GFS and UKMO more keen however...let the battle of the models commence

While we're all doing it, there is only so much point in looking at the models for this kind of event. We know there is going to be a swathe of instability drifting N/NW through tomorrow evening and night as pressure across the south falls. What pops up where is frankly a guessing game. If you're under the rainbow coloured zones on the MUCAPE charts you're in for a shout. All I would politely ask is people do not sound the doom sirens until at least the very early hours (if at all). It could quite conceivably get to 9-10-11 o'clock before the atmosphere pops.

I remember watching an interesting tv programme some time ago which discussed theories that lightning frequency was linked in some way to the ionosphere and magnetosphere, with some meteorologists noting that there were patterns in lightning activity globally, i.e there were peaks and troughs in terms of lightning activity which was not simply accounted for by seasonal variations

Lvl 1 I reckon but quite extensive.

That Euro4 model is for 18-21z Tuesday. Much of the storm activity is modelled for later in the night.

Just had a light shower albeit with very large raindrops

Permission to get a little bit more excited now (and I'm usually one of the more conservative)

Not sure what it's like further north but the last 24 hrs here have been VERY humid indeed, this is before we've imported the real hot and juicy air that will hopefully bring widespread thunderstorms. Today is our first notable flying ant day - I know other areas have already had theirs. Looking forward to the build up and the "will it won't it" scenario that will inevitably unfold

It WILL NOT!!!!! What's your name - Del Boy??

Not so sure this time round @RichmondWeather - time will tell however

Not allowing myself to carried away just yet - 5 days is a bit a large window for variation for me. Encouraged though by the consistency over the past couple of days - not very much in the way of variation between model runs, unlike previous plume periods this year where 00z to 06z to 12z to 18z have looked substantially different. The wind charts show clearly the thundery low developing over NW Spain as a cut off low Monday evening, drifting into the BoB before arriving across our shores around 21z-00z Tuesday/Wednesday. What will be interesting is what that fires across Spain/France/BoB as this will undoubtedly have a big impact on UK fortunes. The veering winds around the low will also help negate reliance on the jet (which at this time is non-existent across W Europe). I am hopeful we will end up with something like we experienced 3/4 July

Lots of convection trying to develop here amid blue skies and very temps

Definitely a fresh robust Cb developing to the W of this most recent storm.

Yup can still hear odd rumbles however the train of towers keeping it rejuvenating are rapidly decaying. There seems to be a fresh tower however due W of the current storm, which may be a fresh lot developing

Yay definite distant rumble of thunder there. Can call this a thunder day lol (certainly feels like one) However the convection is starting to wain in the train of updraughts so would expect this lot to start decaying (LOL - just as I wrote that I saw a wicked white CG)

Absolutely loving this convective display. Look - dual pileus caps, that's definitely a first for me. @Windblade if you're hearing thunder it means the convective train in theory is getting closer yay

It is just a total train of storms developing across my western skyline

Another rapidly developing over London

Will stop posting for a while now - wanted to share the lovely vertical updraught the London cell has. It's changing so rapidly so no longer looks like this

Secondary cell over C/N London in full swing now. Definite surface based and kicking out (I think) distant rumbles. More towers going up behind in a line. Let's hope that line can keep back building and head this way.

Looks fairly static to me suggestive of a CZ. Could present flooding issues.

Another cell going up, closer this time. Might get some distant thunder out of it but won't come too close sadly. Does look as if other towers are trying to go up behind it however

Indeed - but of a hook signature in the centre of that to my eyes This is sitting in the sky to my SE

Stunningly beautiful CBs to my N over London - swear I just heard a distant boom but surely not possible from that far away Look surface based to me too