Harry

Just stepped out of the office. The humidity is insane coinciding with far more agitated skies which seem to have numerous towers though as the sky has turned more hazy its hard to make out the detail

Skies are teasing and suggesting that's a possibility

These look to like building towers to me!!!!

Looks to me that cloud coverage is definitely building to the W and N of London. Some much more robust looking clouds in amongst the more robust looking AcCas now.

The most textbook AcCas I've seen all year developing more widely now to my NW and (crucially) W

Well...just looked out the window (overhead) and seen this....go figure. There is much more pronounced AcCas just N of London.

Going bonkers over N France...typical

Hard to say what will happen to be honest. My phone app has slashed the risk from 80/90% to 50/60% Unfortunately MetO clearly of the view we will not be in luck down here

Unlike other times, we do have the possibility of that cap being eroded. It is, as noted on the UKWW extracts, unlikely to be by virtue of temps/DPs, but instead a trough feature, falling heights and/or CZs. If the cap does go (and I agree, environment increasingly capped around London at the moment) then it will be explosive and likely packed full of severe elements. With pressure falling and some atmospheric disturbances lurking around up there, I'm not out of hope yet.

Be careful now....

To be honest I can't fault much of this. As I alluded to earlier, I am buoyed by the fact the elevated mash-up this morning didn't happen and we have had more extensive heating than was otherwise anticipated. Based on DPs the juice seems to be sticking around longer than was otherwise anticipated. Having a quick gander at the WRF-NMM it is keen for a trough feature to run in and generate some convective activity in and around the London area later today. It is thinking some time later than the UKWW chaps and my iPhone. It is also going for much higher CAPE (both SB and MU) than it was this time yesterday - current thinking C/S/SE England 2,500 - 3,000 J/Kg with LI -7 to -9 (MUCAPE), this remaining so from around 16z to 22z before clearing away. Temps currently 30C in London with (again, iPhone) storm probabilities now at 90%.

In between the city skyscrapers it looks like something may be building to the NE

IPhone app now saying it's currently 29C with storm risk of 70%/80%/50% at 17z/18z/19z respectively

This is very encouraging, as is the persisting smattering of AcCas dotted around the London skyline.

A good dose of insolation my boy - may help us out later this afternoon/evening though not betting money on it

Interestingly, for between 17z and 18z this evening, my iPhone weather app now says 60/70% probability of thunderstorms respectively. Can't recall the last time I saw probabilities that high.

Just seen Dan's storm forecast update....just as he removed the MDT from the SE corner, that cell goes up! Can't odds it really...law of sod reigns supreme

Thunderstorm erupted in Kent (cue fury from elsewhere lol)

Cb development NW of London (as has been widely reported already). Lack of sferic activity suggestive that perhaps the atmosphere is not quite as unstable as we had imagined (notwithstanding all of the AcCas and visible cues). It is here very humid and increasingly warm this morning. I do wonder whether the failure of the models to accurately predict the non-development of thunderstorms this morning will alter prospects later on...i.e, we all saw yesterday the effect the anticipated development of storms had on other projected parameters... Much like I rather pessimistically stated yesterday, I am dubious about thunderstorm coverage and still am taking a more negative view, with most of the real humdinging plume juice staying over the near continent. That said, I do think prospects of surface based convection have increased thanks to non-event this morning, albeit that any developments are likely to remain isolated (unless any CZ or trough features pop up unexpectedly)

I don't have an unobstructed view of the southern skyline but what of it I can see is very unstable looking.

Not sure what you're seeing Paul but it's not on the forecast I'm seeing

Still silent down south. The storms that erupted in BoB (and still ongoing) are remaining fairly static. Will need to hope something erupts much closer later in the evening - I do anyway as it seems increasingly unlikely that anything will happen after 12z tomorrow down here

Brilliant!!!!

First signs of some AcCas drifting in - nothing record breaking but tentative signs nonetheless

Im driving back from Bedfordshire shortly....my car is going to get smothered...bugger