Harry

Personally, I'm growing less optimistic based on the latest models. To me, the most explosive juice seems to be staying continent side, while yes there'll be instability and some potential triggers it is not on the scale that I think was being indicated a short while ago. I suspect there will elevated storms across the S/SE tomorrow and some home grown cells on the northern and western edge of the plume, but in between I suspect much of the instability available won't be tapped and we'll be witness to some isolated torrential downpours and maybe the odd isolated intense thunderstorm, but little more widespread than that. Hopefully I am totally wrong, but I cannot help but interpret the latest models in this way

I would seriously take the NetWx model with a big fat pinch of salt at this stage.

Behave!! You should know by now that that is not good form... ...admittedly I am too, but it only exacerbates any disappointment if it doesn't go to plan

I'm in Bedford today and tomorrow and agree, skies have been varying from dark/ominous to bright/sunny all day. Humidity creeping up too.

Seems to be a lot of disagreement about if/when storms will take place on Thursday. UKMO and NW models seem keen to push storms through more quickly than GFS or WRF-NMM. Hoping the latest is right and it is a later affair. Not keen on trying to commute home during torrential downpours.

I remember this well, was a cracking night with fairly widespread thunderstorms. That may well have been early July too.

Looking good for Thursday PM and overnight. Lots of SBCAPE and MUCAPE, falling heights, increasing lapse rates....should be good. As ever, usual caveats with these setups apply and nobody should start planning anything or building their hopes too highly.

Absolutely torrential rain in C London at the moment. Drops look very large, borderline soft hail.

Hardly a reliable tool, but the train is extremely warm and sticky this evening. Clearly the humidity is on the up, which combined with observations of AcCas, should be promising. However, MUCAPE (NMM) during the night is confined to the far SE so I look likely to be outside any realistic chance.

No worries - I know I can't believe it either. It's one of those storm days that's emblazoned in my mind, if for nothing else the amazing CGs and amazing thunder (that was the last time I'd say we had proper thunder!)

This was the day @Mesoscale

27/28 June 2011 rings a bell. If I recall correctly, cold front was supposed to have cleared through so time earlier, however didn't reach the SE until early afternoon the next day. Temps reached 30-31C before storms erupted. I remember the lightning was frequent and unusually strong, with ear splitting thunder.

Thought I'd share this with you. I took some steaks out of the freezer about 10-15 mins ago. Just popped back in the kitchen and there is a thick frost on them (they were crystal clear when I took them out). That just gives a wee idea of how insanely humid it has become. Saying there's some moisture in the air is like saying molten lava is tepid. In echo of AJ's post earlier, my frosty steaks should reassure enough that the atmosphere is primed and ready for action

The detonating front and falling pressure is still further W. Wouldn't say it's game over just yet.

Agreed...considering we have had some fairly intense storms already this year, this is by far the most "stormy" it has felt. Of all the days over the past few of the heatwave, without question it is the most humid and Capey (lol). Im going to periodically keep an eye on proceedings but I'm not placing any bets on storms tonight. As for Northerners we are soon approaching initiation time. Fairly big model disagreement about where initiation will happen - NMM earlier favouring anywhere from the N Midlands area then N and NE from there. UKMO precip model has it all exploding virtually over/just off the NE coast. These loaded gun environments are tough and frustrating...

My interpretation of the modelling is that there is little chance of storms tonight thanks to a robust cap and lack of a pronounced trigger. Had I not seen any models however, everything I can feel and see increasingly tells me otherwise...just left my Parent's house and to my surprise the sky is filling with AcCas and virga from the south. As the temperature now falls the relative humidity is SKY ROCKETING and there's that unmistakable damp floral smell beginning to spring up. Hardly a breath of wind too... I wouldn't be inclined to go too strongly against the models. However I've many a time sat here melting, forecasters and models telling me it'll all be up North, only for nocturnal cooling or an unanticipated pre-frontal trough releasing the energy. See my photo and gauge for yourselves...

While I post on here frequently and am a bit of a storm nut, I always struggle to understand how sometimes the atmosphere goes boom, yet with even higher CAPE/DPs and nice CF it does nothing. I would have thought given the instability and the CF, it would be a perfect setup.....but alas, no! Well....it doesn't appear so anyway. The times I've woken to unexpected thunderstorms when models and media forecasts said not likely ol' chap....

I'm sat in the garden with the sun behind a tree with a refreshing cold elderflower cider drink - just dead heat. Phone says it's still 29C - can very well believe it.

Echo all the comments above - hummana hummana Except the suggestion these charts are way over-egged. I'm not sure they are that over-egged - temperatures are expected to bounce back towards 30C on Thursday with high humidity - will just be a question of whether it can be released

Ball lightning is no use to man nor beast. Just a ponsy floating fire hazard b

Here are a couple of gorgeous videos from the MCS a couple of weeks ago. There is another video called Dover Thunderstorm but I haven't posted it because the language is very bad, but it's the best I've seen in demonstrating the mad frequency of the lightning. Check it out, although maybe on mute

Had about 4-5 flashes and rumbles here. Still can't believe it as I wasn't expecting much in the way of rain let alone thundery activity

That'd be what we just had here then. Just had another...

Just had a flash of lightning and peel of thunder here. Lit up blindingly behind the curtains. Cant believe it, didn't expect that AT ALL!!

Fingers crossed!! If we can get the atmospheric conditions right, seems that it could be rife for some highly electrified storms. Let's just hope this isn't now going to be a westerly Atlantic dominated drab fest.