Harry

This is what NMM is suggesting for convective precipitation early hours of Monday.

Ooohhh!!!!! I'm now planning to head down the coast Sunday afternoon and staying overnight. Will defo make sure my camera and video camera are charged

As I said I would, here is my (FOR FUN) shot at what I think the next 30 hours or so will hold storm wise. It is based primarily on probability, though have thrown in a severe line for added fun. It is based on what I think is likely to happen, courtesy of GFS, NMM, WRM and UKMO outputs. The top forecast is for the period Fri 18z to Sat 12z, while the second is Sat 12z to Sat 21z.

ConvectiveWeather.co.uk have expanded their thunder risk forecast further east for the overnight period, including W London areas. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-26

Latest model output is no more revealing than previous - that is to say, a lot of uncertainty remains particularly as regards Sunday/Monday. Pretty much anywhere could see a storm or two over the coming weekend, though what is almost certain is not everywhere will. FAX chart is perhaps the most interesting currently - runs a trough from NW France up across the W-UK through Saturday ahead of the advancing CF. This I would suggest could be a particular focal point for thunderstorms where as the frontal zones themselves could become quite messy (still thundery rain potential for sure). Sunday into Monday (for me in the SE) is particularly interesting as it shows a decent chunk of the SE back in the warm sector behind the shallow continental low, with a nice trough in behind, which again could potentially be a focal point for thunder. GFS modelling however not having much of it, with SB/MUCAPE staying pretty much over the continent during this period. I may have a play tomorrow and throw some of my own risk charts out there, just because I haven't done that in a long time Happy Days - off to catch a baking hot train.

Absolutely but I do love the bitty updates as the models update and shuffle about.

Beeb really struggling with the forecast for this weekend. Darren Bett earlier and Louise Lear just now keen for widespread downpours across NW quarter of U.K, with increasingly isolated and discrete cells possible as you head SE perhaps as far south as C/N Midlands on Saturday. Looks likely to stay dry further S (and hot with temps knocking on 30C). The real mystery surrounds Sunday into Monday for us southerners. Sunday has been increasingly looking like a damp/grey 23C sort of day, however Darren Bett just suggested 28C+ now for Sunday with a suspicion of perhaps thunderstorms drifting N/NE across the SE overnight. Hmmm...let's wait and see

This is exactly the kind of storms we've had over the past couple of years. Fairly frequent lightning all around, muffled thunder, stop start rain Bring on some good ol' fashioned MCS' with booming thunder

Indeed...unlikely based on other models. Yes the instability will build but I'd be surprised to see rainfall as extensive as that.

Clearly a lot of uncertainty about this coming weekend - only yesterday the models were suggesting 30C Saturday/Sunday, now 27C Saturday 24C Sunday. I anticipate thundery modelling will therefore be typically variable (as it is currently). Looks as if much of thundery plume (based on current modelling) will stay over the continent. Literally right up to the north France coast, very high instability is modelled, whereas just across the Channel very little at all (could all change!)

The thought that there is heavy rain around is boggling. Sat out in the garden, in shorts and t-shirt, glass of wine, birds chirping...bliss

You must be quite a bit younger than me - for me, 2007-2012 were AWFUL. Last few years have been reasonable in my view, although I do nip down the Kent coast now and then during plumes so maybe my recollections are skewed a little bit. Either way, I'm on your side in hoping for lots and lots of storms

We did have a fair few decent storms last year, Windblade. Maybe you weren't around at the time. Most of the plume related storms were very elevated affairs, thunder being particularly pathetic. Also had a fair few thunder days during the day, although as I'm in the office I seldom get much opportunity to enjoy them. I am hopeful this year will nevertheless be a good year. First semi-opportunity being later this week, however GFS already beginning to limit it and then shunt it eastwards. Still way out though so room for changes certainly. Now looking at 28C for Sunday

Bank bank bank bank bank bank!!!!

Not a drop of rain here today - full marks to the forecasters for the accuracy of the forecast today. As for threats of a plume later next week, I'm putting odds at <10%. Models reducing any 'plume' to an increasingly narrow slither of moisture. Looking quite forward to a dry and warm(ish) spell over the next few days.

Take with a huge pinch of salt, but it's fab seeing the first of hopefully many GFS modelled plumes

Great find, Oddspot!!!

Enjoyed that Essex thunderstorm as I was driving home - saw three vivid flashes, including one gorgeous white fork out of the side of my windscreen. Skies as I approached it were utterly gorgeous, with a defined base and dense rain/hail curtains backlit by the sinking sun. Very pleasant surprise after dreary grey and rainy day in Bedford. Echo Windblade's frustrations, would have loved to have pulled over and taken it all in, alas the M25 is a jam packed beast this time of day.

I'll be in Bedford tomorrow - hopefully prime position for some stormage

Just heard from Nick Miller (on Beeb website, no personally) that it was the warmest day of the year so far (25.8C in, where else, Gravesend) - doesn't surprise me in the slightest, sweating like a pig when I got home 20 mins ago. So...juice is in situ, heat in abundance - fingers crossed

Going to be a very interesting 24 hours. My feeling is that if I was in E Kent and saw no lightning (either during the afternoon but more especially in the evening) I would be disappointed. I suspect the further N and W you travel you'll be increasingly fortunate to see anything electrical, where I suspect the atmosphere will be much more mixed and far less convective. One thing is certain, anywhere E of say Reading should expect some very heavy rain tomorrow. I can vouch that it is very warm and humid now with more juice yet to be imported. The atmosphere will be liked a sodden flannel being wrung out through the second part of tomorrow.

Not convinced it was ever likely to be anything other than lots of rain to be honest. There was and is a slim chance of some thunder across the far SE but it's slim at very best.

It has certainly been a feature of the past few years, hence my eagerness to float it at this stage. Additionally, waving troughs are notoriously difficult to model anyway, with the added mystery in the fact that the wave itself will be courtesy of a developing area of LP expected to develop near the BoB. I suspect many east of the CF through tomorrow, once the the WF has swept in, will be surprised by the high warmth/humidity it will bring. Hence even if the front progresses as modelled and we do not benefit from high instability modelled just across the Channel, we will be thoroughly wet, perhaps even with some sporadic convective elements, particularly as the triple point moves through Wednesday night.

A hunch I have is that it may be worth keeping an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday across southern and eastern areas. I believe there to be a chance of thundery rain, especially if the progress east of the CF and subsequent wave (including possible triple point) slows. There will be a build up of reasonable instability on the eastern flank of this system which could creep our way if there is a slight delay in the progress of the frontal system. Hasten to add it is a very low prospect at this stage, but not one I am ruling out.

In Aylesford for the next few hours. Skies look nice off the far S and SE