Harry

Me too! If there's anything to report of course. Currently I may as well be on the Portuguese coast. Fingers crossed for some flashy skies in T+3 hours

Exactly what I was just about to post - going bonkers over NW France right now...the northern edge of the plume I would suggest. It should strat erupting eastwards as it drifts north (fingers crossed)

As anticipated, clear skies prevail here. Glorious evening. Fingers crossed the incoming plume detonates about 10-20 miles to our south and tracks right overhead naturally hoping it's a widespread eruption so everyone can enjoy the storms (you watch, every bugger but me will be rejoicing in electric displays lol)

In these sorts of setups, it is frustrating because it is total now-casting. All models show explosive ingredients drifting in over the next few hours. We shouldn't be seeing AcCas yet, feeling sweaty yet, it should look like a bog standard flat HP sky for the next few hours (as it does). As the petrol laiden skies drift north later we'll start to see it start to look agitated and feel more sub-tropical. Patience is king

Irrelevant, whatever is going to bring the goods will erupt at least 3-4 hours from now

As a pre-warning (not wanting to be doom and gloom), do not sit tight if you're in an area not modelled to be under decent instability. If one thing has become clear to me over the past years, even if precip is expected to break out, the sparks will follow the instability. I've sat countless times under torrential rain with no sparks (with models showing me outside of decent CAPE). If you're under a yellows and reds on the CAPE charts (and it rains) game on!!

Yes I hope it does because I'm BANG in the right place (pardon the punne)

Indeed, Dymchurch!! Good luck to you too matey - as I said earlier I think I'm not in the best position if models are to be believed, but fingers crossed! Hope you get better soon!

Same here @stainesbloke although the real unstable humid airmass not anticipated until after 21z when it should start (at mid levels at least) spread in from the south. Reminder for any storm gazers tonight - DO NOT FORGET YOUR INSECT REPELLANT!!!! Especially if like me you're in rural spots - they're out in force already and it's only May

Well I've done just that and am at the coast (between Dungeness and Hythe). I'm hoping for the opposite of you and that there's actually an extensive outbreak like the SW saw the other night - an arc from Portsmouth to Dover would good (although kicking off in the Channel so I'm not on he south side). I saw a gorgeous sun halo earlier too @Norfolk Sheep

We've committed to heading coast bound to spend time with the folks. Storm wise I think it's probably the wrong call, but must put family over hobbies (so corny I nearly threw up myself ) Good luck everyone, am sure there's going to be some belters over the next 18 hours for some lucky ones.

Hard to tell as I got out of the shower about half hour ago, but it does feel as if the heat and humidity is really beginning to build now (wasn't expecting the humid air to arrive until much later). Feels warmer and more humid than at any time over the past week, but again, just how it feels rather than statistically accurate

Jury seems to be out on the significance of a mackerel sky...beautiful one appeared over Hempstead Valley (Kent) in the past 10 minutes

This seems to be a big outlier. If scroll on to 1900 it's all gone. Just goes to show how unpredictable things are even at this short range.

I'm falling increasingly of the view that I should stay home tonight rather than the coast. Just done a sweep of most of the main models and there is a LOT of divergence (albeit only over 50 miles or so lol). Does seem the best overlap of instability and precip outbreak is where I live, whereas the Kent coast boasts highest instability but seemingly lower prospect of storms breaking out. Will have to make my decision in the next couple of hours

I have a dilemma - I can stay home in NW Kent/SE London or make the 65-70 mile trip to the Kent coast. Gut is telling me the coast (where the highest instability is) yet forecasts seem to be favouring areas further west. Aaaarrrggghhh!

Some pretty gorgeous looking parameters for a few hours tomorrow night

Looking at precip only is a cardinal sin. If it's not overlapping with CAPE then it'll likely just heavy rain. When I checked the NMM earlier (in my experience pretty good at close range) there was a decent slab of instability across the SE quarter, suggestive that there is a reasonable chance of sparks here whereas the stuff further west less so. Let's check the 00z models in the morning.

Well chuffed with my storm forecast I made yesterday afternoon

+CG and +IC - ground rattlers with hint of a motorbike backfiring. Nothing gets you out of bed quicker

Looks as if a second cell along that convective line is going to come very close to here.

Yay, woke up 10 minutes ago to this very small and much elevated little cell. Just hearing my third rumble of thunder as I type and it's just started raining quite heavily. No lightning observed as yet. Oohh another rumble and the rain is getting even heavier. Was just about to say it looks very unorganised but now looks as if it might be organising a little more as it pushes NNE. Not sure how it feels elsewhere but the humidity is SKY ROCKETING here. Cell moving off now - happy days and a pleasant surprise. While writing, I only discovered the other day that you can set a historical data loop on blitzortung so you can see the progress of lightning over the past several hours. It's fascinating to watch. Good luck everyone today, hoping this will be the last thunder for me today as am off to a BBQ later. Keeping my hopes pinned on tomorrow night and Monday

Brilliant, chuffed for you guys in the SW. Bet William Grimsley is over the moon Got to try to get back to sleep now after waking 2 mins ago by chance lol

Earlier cells died, new cells now firing further west. So far my for fun forecast is looking ok

I would guesstimate <5% +CG, <5% +IC, <20% -CG with the remainder -IC