[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

UKMO is not the greatest this afternoon. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

I'd imagine the ECM at 144 won't go without comment...

[Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That freezing spell last March could have been better .

 

 

Depends where you were. A lot of places got a lot of snow.

First with the beast which was awesome.

Storm Emma gave huge amounts across particularly the sw of the UK and over Ireland but I do recall it cleared the south coast of England northward faster than people would have liked and wasn't a particularly active series of fronts there.

I'd have preferred it a bit earlier in the year but it was still a truly awesome event for most.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

While we wait and ponder maybe this will cheer people up from last Feb 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Really? is this the first warming or the second?

That's the warming now, today.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

 

This is the straw we have to grasp, and it looks good enough (not quite as impressive as last Winter though) could be 3 or 4 weeks before this propagates down.

We are kind of desperate for a change now. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Again. The ICON was the best model hands down during the run up to the 2018 Beast. It didn’t just guess the outcome and get lucky

I think it's a fab model. 

Those complaining can ignore it if they wish. No one has to use it...

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This would indeed be a coup for the ICON ....

Top, top model in my opinion. This would be the 4th "coup" in a row. And it only became operational 2 years a go. I think it's a superb model second only to the ECM in Europe. Meteociel even have a dedicated 3d version now.

Let's hope it's on the ball again.

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

UKMO 120 hrs

Similar evolution to ICON. Definitely on an improving trend here for cold.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wow icon, maybe the much colder air is arriving much earlier than met office predict, they still going for mid month, icon has it nearly here in a week,, confusing or what, credibility of ecm gfs through the toilet if this is correct. Ukmo earlier yesterday was close to icon showing too

ICON was the top performing model by a mile for the spring easterlies and the summer heatwave. It's a fantastic high resolution model since it was released and replaced DWD.

Again please!

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Chilly by the 3rd...well poised.

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

 

Excellent.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

00z ICON 129 hrs

 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Deeper cold air in to eastern europe in the medium term on this run

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

This time last year we were coming off the back of several proper northwesterly incursions and various snow episodes in many locations. This winter so far couldn't be more stark.

We are due a bit of luck. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The Icon looks a stonker but so have a lot of runs lately at 100-150 only for an explosive low on Southern Greenland to just flatten everything.

Yes, looks good at 120 hrs. Very positive. 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

3 hours ago, PLANET THANET said:

sometimes looking at the models drive you to drink l.o.l

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

6 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Luckily I'm on the drink today...

Is everyone a raging alcoholic here?  

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

ICON is the next best and most consistent model after the ECM in my view.

 

Absolutely superb for the Spring easterlies and summer heatwave.

 

 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

ICON leading the way as usual but UKMO equally good

 

Just a LITTLE less energy now through the GL - Iceland corridor and we are in. The trend is our friend.

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Another positive run on the 18z ICON. Ever so slightly more amplified by 120hrs (only goes to 120 on the 18z)

 

12z

We are definitely trending the right direction all be it it is a slow old process.

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Key timeframe is between 120 hrs and 144 hrs. 

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if this morphed in to a half hearted retrogression of our high toward GL prompting a quicker change than we are anticipating in coming runs. Not as much energy progged through that corridor now.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Basically under the influence of the exact same area of high pressure from start to finish on the 18z GFS.

Hoping for better in the coming days.

Happy Christmas everyone.